The limited availability of low-orbit space has made the detection capability of satellites a short-term focal point.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities issued a research report stating that Starlink, under SpaceX, announced the development of a new Space Situational Awareness (SSA) system named Stargaze, which can significantly enhance the safety and sustainability of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite operations. Compared with traditional ground-based systems, Stargaze's detection capabilities may have improved by several orders of magnitude. In recent years, with the increase in the number of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), space traffic congestion and collision risks have become major concerns for the global aerospace community. The limited capacity of low-orbit space has made satellite detection capabilities a short-term focal point. Looking ahead, the SSA system market may become a new highlight in the commercial aerospace industry chain.
The main viewpoints of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:
Event: On the evening of January 29, 2026 local time, Starlink, under SpaceX, announced the development of a new Space Situational Awareness (SSA) system named Stargaze, which can significantly enhance the safety and sustainability of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite operations. On February 3, the Singapore Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA) and Indian space surveillance and intelligence company Digantara Industries also established a partnership to jointly develop SSA tools to support Singapore's national space initiatives.
What is a Space Situational Awareness System?
A Space Situational Awareness (SSA) system refers to the knowledge, descriptions, and practices used to track space objects and their operating environments. SSA data is used to predict encounters between objects and issue warnings of potential hazardous close approaches to space operators so that collision avoidance measures can be taken. In space, debris and meteor showers can affect satellite operations; thus, SSA technology has emerged to ensure satellite safety and coordinate space traffic activities in real-time.
Why is the Space Situational Awareness System becoming increasingly important?
Guolian Minsheng Securities pointed out that the core reason for the growing importance of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) system lies in the explosive growth of satellite launches in recent years. With the increasing number of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), space traffic congestion and collision risks have become significant issues of concern for the global aerospace community.
Against the backdrop of the limited capacity of low-orbit space, an increasing number of constellation plans are being submitted globally, and the pace of these developments is accelerating. Long-term orbital retention of rocket debris, failure of some operators to share trajectory predictions during maneuvers, and anti-satellite tests conducted by certain countries have all significantly exacerbated the threat of space debris and collisions. Traditional ground-based radar systems have limited observation frequency and high uncertainty in orbit prediction, especially when affected by space weather, resulting in often delayed warnings. In this context, SSA technologies that can significantly improve the safety and sustainability of LEO satellite operations have naturally drawn significant attention from countries around the world.
The recent introduction of SpaceX’s Stargaze system may provide support for Musk’s 'Million Satellite Plan.'
Compared with traditional ground-based systems, Stargaze's detection capability may have improved by several orders of magnitude. Stargaze uses data collected by nearly 30,000 star trackers, each continuously observing nearby objects, ultimately enabling the entire constellation to detect approximately 30 million flyby events per day. After collecting the data, the system autonomously detects and aggregates observations of orbital objects and integrates them into a space traffic management platform. This platform can identify potential close approaches between space objects and generate Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs). From the perspective of screening result times, while the industry average currently requires several hours, SpaceX can complete the process within minutes.
Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that SpaceX’s recent series of actions (the Stargaze system, the Million Satellite Plan, and the acquisition of xAI) all point to an ambitious industrial blueprint: deploying space computing power and space photovoltaics around the 'platform position' provided by the commercial aerospace industry, thereby achieving the goal of 'space-based artificial intelligence.' Combined with Musk’s vision, this move may represent an important pathway for human civilization to achieve Kardashev Type II status.
Looking ahead, the space situational awareness systems market may become a new highlight in the commercial aerospace industry chain.
The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for the acceleration of the commercial aerospace industry. On one hand, leading aerospace economy participants such as SpaceX are likely to aggressively advance satellite launch plans; on the other hand, the limited availability of low-Earth orbit has made satellite detection capabilities a focal point in the short term. In response to this industrial trend, China also places significant emphasis on the field of space situational awareness systems. During the '15th Five-Year Plan' period, efforts will be directed toward advancing the development of space traffic management, conducting key technology research in areas such as space debris monitoring, early warning systems, and removal, laying a solid foundation for China to take an active role in the formulation of international rules for space traffic management, while ensuring the safe operation of space infrastructure.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about 2026 being a landmark year for the commercial aerospace industry. It is recommended to focus on leaders in the U.S. commercial aerospace satellite industry chain, as well as emerging application scenarios such as space computing power and space photovoltaics, including Rocket Lab (RKLB.US), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US), EchoStar Communications (SATS.US), Planet Labs PBC (PL.US), and Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US).
Risk Warning
Potential risks include delays in satellite launch schedules, slower-than-expected technological advancements in emerging space markets, intensified competition within the commercial aerospace sector, and impacts from geopolitical conflicts on industrial development.
