As the Spring Festival approaches, last week's sales and wholesale price performance of Maotai Feitian exceeded expectations. Feedback from various regions indicates that Wuliangye’s sales remained stable, with the peak season effect of the Spring Festival prominently reflected in leading brands.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Huachuang Securities issued a research report stating that the current reform of iMaotai is gradually unleashing its effectiveness. Online channels are continuously strengthening consumer engagement, while offline channels are rationally reverting to consumption-driven demand for regular Maotai products. The distribution velocity of Feitian Maotai is significantly faster than the same period last year, with wholesale prices seeing a mild increase after New Year's Day. The previous week, loose Feitian prices reached 1,600 yuan, triggering panic over channel shortages, surging 150 yuan on the same day. Although there was some decline over the weekend, pre-festival support at 1,600 yuan is expected to be robust, with both volume and price performance exceeding expectations. iMaotai contributed additional Feitian volume increments, potentially around 20%. Considering the reform’s effective enhancement in consumer reach and a slight increase in per-ton pricing, it is anticipated that the Spring Festival will see rising volumes and prices, contributing to revenue growth.
The main viewpoints of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
The results of Maotai's reform are evident, with both volume and price exceeding expectations.
The ongoing reform of iMaotai is progressively delivering its benefits. Online platforms are enhancing consumer touchpoints, while offline sales of regular Maotai products are returning to their core consumption attributes, driving demand release. The turnover rate for Feitian Maotai is notably faster compared to the same period last year. After New Year's Day, wholesale prices experienced a moderate rise, with loose Feitian reaching 1,600 yuan the previous week, sparking fears of stock shortages. Prices surged by 150 yuan on the same day, although they retreated slightly over the weekend. Nevertheless, strong support at 1,600 yuan is anticipated before the festival, with both volume and price metrics surpassing forecasts.
These outcomes can be attributed to three factors: first, the iMaotai reform has effectively expanded customer reach, attracting and nurturing new consumer groups while driving increased demand within offline dealer networks; second, the price of regular Feitian Maotai has settled into the 1,500-yuan range, restoring its consumption-oriented nature and unlocking significant latent demand for business banquets, family gatherings, and gifting purposes; third, premium products such as high-end aged wines have seen reduced shipments through traditional distribution channels, allowing regular Feitian to fill this supply gap and further accelerate turnover.
Regular Feitian: Pre-festival demand continues to intensify, with volume and price driving revenue growth.
As of the pre-Spring Festival period, progress on Feitian repayments stands at 33%, with most goods already delivered and adequately digested. Some distributors are seeking additional allocations. Overall, dealer channel progress remains largely consistent with last year. iMaotai has contributed incremental Feitian volumes, potentially around 20%. Given the reform’s success in enhancing consumer engagement and achieving a modest increase in per-ton pricing, it is projected that the Spring Festival will witness synchronized volume and price increases, contributing to revenue gains.
High-value products: Reduced supply focuses on inventory clearance, with stocks at low levels.
In 2026, distribution of high-value products will primarily come from iMaotai, while dealer channels focus on clearing high-priced inventory accumulated in Q4 2025. Among these, limited quantities of fifteen-year aged wine are being shipped under controlled conditions, while zodiac-themed products are fully transitioning to consignment models, leaving dealers without inventory. Existing stocks of premium products have been reduced to low levels, prompting some distributors to seek supplementary allocations from self-operated stores. Overall, pre-festival sales performance for premium and aged wines has been positive, with expected growth in sales activity.
Observations of Spring Festival stocking channels: Bipolar divergence in momentum, with standout performances from Maotai and Wuliangye.
Recent field visits across multiple regions indicate that since January, Spring Festival stocking and sales momentum for baijiu have gradually picked up. Most channels reported a double-digit decline in total shipments from January onward, but regional and brand disparities are evident. Geographically, markets with stronger economic foundations and drinking cultures, such as East China and Henan, reported sales declines of approximately 10%, while provinces like Shandong and Hunan noted sharper double-digit drops. By price segment, Maotai Feitian demonstrated remarkable resilience with standout growth, whereas Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Xinghuacun Fenjiu showed mixed performances across different regions. Sales in the mass-market price band fell by over 10%, while the sub-premium segment faced notable pressure, with sales declining by more than 20%. Specific details follow:
High-end spirits exhibit differentiated performance across regions. Feedback on the shortage of Maotai Feitian is widespread, with distributors holding almost no inventory, and some regions requesting additional allocation plans. Wuliangye's sales in East China remain flat, while feedback from Henan and Hunan indicates a single-digit decline; however, a few regions report a double-digit drop in sales. After the mid-month concentrated delivery, wholesale prices stabilized slightly above expectations.
Luzhou Laojiao continues to implement price-support strategies for its premium Guojiao products, resulting in significant pressure on sales and inventory, with year-over-year sales declines and shrinking market share. However, its lower-priced Guojiao line performs well in the East China market. Fenjiu has not significantly increased inventory during the Spring Festival. The Qinghua series achieved positive growth in East China, while feedback from Henan indicates a single-digit sales decline. Central and South China reported double-digit declines. In some areas, the wholesale price of Qing 20 rebounded from 350 yuan to 365 yuan, with marginal inventory reduction. The rigid demand for Bofen continues to solidify its market base.
Regional leading brands' channels remain under widespread pressure. Yanghe continues to digest inventory, with lackluster market performance and insufficient peak-season initiatives. On the product side, Meng 6+ maintains tight supply and supports pricing, while Meng 3 Crystal Edition focuses on volume through price adjustments. Jiannianhuan's Spring Festival collection target is relatively high, but inventory levels remain elevated, channel profit margins are thinning, and core product sales have declined. However, its market share in Jiangsu remains stable. Gulin Gongjiu's current collection progress is approximately 20%+, with ongoing efforts needed to reduce channel inventory. Its performance in the Jiangsu market outside the province is stable.
Investment advice
Baijiu: Maotai’s sales and wholesale prices exceeded expectations. With expectations and positions at their bottom, attention should be paid to the Spring Festival catalyst. Maotai and Gulin are preferred choices. As the Spring Festival approaches, last week’s performance of Maotai Feitian in terms of sales and wholesale prices exceeded expectations. Many regions reported that Wuliangye's sales remained flat. The peak season effect of the Spring Festival is particularly evident among leading brands. Currently, baijiu is at the bottom of expectations and positions, and short-term attention should be focused on the Spring Festival catalyst.
For the full year of 2026, liquor companies are transitioning from passive responses to proactive adjustments. Opportunities lie in Maotai’s wholesale price retreating and stabilizing, with expectations for stabilization becoming clearer as the year progresses toward the middle. From a portfolio perspective, Kweichow Maotai (600519.SH), which offers strong certainty and a high dividend yield, is recommended. For the Spring Festival mass-market liquor segment, Gulin Gongjiu (000596.SZ) is highly recommended. Attention should also be paid to the clearing pace of Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ), Shanxi Xinghuo (600809.SH), Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), and innovative model varieties such as Zhenjiu Lidu (06979).
Mass-market products: Key recommendations focus on catering chains and festive foods. First, catering supply chains show stabilized demand with no inventory overhang, and new product launches and store formats provide multiple catalysts. Following extreme pressure, reversal opportunities arise. Current top picks include Anjoy Food (603345.SH), Babi Food (605338.SH), and Guozhong (02517), with attention on Ligo Food (300973.SZ).
Second, the Spring Festival peak season catalyzes festive foods, with snack segments benefiting from the listing of Mingming Henmang. Recommended stocks include Yanyin Puzi (002847.SZ), with attention on Mingming Henmang (01768), Wanchen Group (300972.SZ), Weilong Delicious (09985), and Haoxiangni (002582.SZ). Additionally, Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) and New Dairy (002946.SZ) are recommended, with attention on Seamild Food (002956.SZ) for Spring Festival opportunities.
Third, Anguo Yeast (600298.SH) remains a key recommendation. Overseas growth opens up mid-term growth potential, while accelerating cost declines enhance profitability. Strategic recommendations include Yili Group (600887.SH), Haitian (603288.SH), Nongfu Spring (09633), China Resources Beer (00291), and Kuaiji Mountain (601579.SH).
Risk Warning
Macroeconomic demand remains persistently weak, industry competition intensifies, and rising costs suppress short-term profitability.
