Tang Yuxuan, Head of Asia Macro Strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, stated that the current decline in gold prices represents a healthy technical correction. The previous upward trend contained some irrational components, and this adjustment has effectively absorbed part of the speculative positions. Notably, gold prices have merely returned to levels seen two weeks ago, with January still recording a 13% increase. Drawing on past experience, after retreating from $4,400 to $3,900 last October, prices briefly consolidated before breaking higher, eventually reclaiming and surpassing previous highs by December.
She further noted that the team's fundamental view on gold remains unchanged. The nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair does not alter the policy environment for gold. Even with an increased likelihood of Quantitative Tightening (QT), the narrative of ongoing global fiscal indiscipline or currency depreciation remains difficult to reverse. Therefore, she expects central banks, institutional investors, and retail buyers to continue viewing gold as a crucial tool for reserve diversification, value preservation, and risk hedging.
JPMorgan Private Bank has raised its year-end target price for gold to $6,150 per ounce, with a range between $6,000 and $6,300. Positioning is still far from crowded. According to 2025 data, emerging market central banks' gold reserves remain in the low double digits as a percentage of total reserves, while China’s holdings are only in the high single digits, indicating significant room for catch-up. ETF holdings are also still below their 2022–2023 peaks. Long-term strategic buyers, such as central banks, foundations, and endowment funds, provide solid support for gold prices. This also explains why the team has greater confidence in gold compared to silver.
