Is this Chinese e-sports stock still worth buying?

金融界 · Jul 28, 2020 02:57

斗鱼国际是中国最大的视频游戏及直播平台之一，在接近一年前以每股11.50美元的价格上市。然而，斗鱼并无像其竞争对手虎牙般令投资者为之著迷，因为虎牙的电竞受众较为庞大。

斗鱼的股价仍较上市价低20％以上，而虎牙则较上市时上升了30％。斗鱼最新的季度报告亦未能令其挽回升势。我们不妨研究一下这只经常被忽视的电竞股票，看看它是否仍然值得买入。

斗鱼的增长速度有多快？

今年第一季度，斗鱼的平均月活跃用户（MAU）同比下降1％至1.581亿。斗鱼称这是因为第一季是传统淡季，以及冠状病毒疫情下网吧暂时关闭，减少了其个人电脑用户的总数。

然而，斗鱼的手机MAU增长了15％至5,660万，因为部分用户转用其智能手机应用程式。其付费用户数量也增长了26％，达到760万。

相比之下，虎牙直播第一季度的MAU同比增长22％至1.513亿，手机MAU跃升39％至5,390万，付费用户数量增长13％至540万。虎牙的受众比斗鱼略小，但却比斗鱼较多元化的平台取得更多的电竞受众。

斗鱼本季度收入同比增长53％，达到人民币22.8亿元（折合3.211亿美元），较预期超出2,230万美元。斗鱼调整后的净收入增长了8倍，达到人民币2.969亿元（折合4,190万美元）。在公认会计准则的基础上，其净收入亦增长近14倍，达到人民币2.545亿元（折合3,590万美元），缓解了先前对其缺乏利润的忧虑。

为什么斗鱼的利润率在上升？

斗鱼的毛利率从每年13.6％上升至21.3％，这要归功于其商业化程度的提升、流媒体成本下降及使用频宽的成本效益改善。此外，该公司增加播放更多顶级游戏内容，开发了更多优质电竞内容，并深化了与开发者及流媒体的合作。

政府在实行抗疫封锁措施期间提供的补贴，亦令斗鱼的销售及营销开支每年减少13％。因此，该公司录得经调整营运利润11.4％，而去年同期为录得经营亏损。

以上两个数据均优于虎牙上季度的经调整毛利率20.3％及经营利润率9.4％。

两家中国的Twitches将继续垄断市场

斗鱼预计第二季度收入按年增长26％至28.7％。这略低于虎牙在可比季度年收入增长29.3％至30.8％的预测，但却显示了这两个平台将继续在中国游戏直播市场占据近乎双寡头的地位。

在斗鱼的电话会议上，首席执行官陈少杰表示：随着我们继续完善平台的营运，我们能够保持我们在手机MAU的增长势头。斗鱼并无提供任何利润率或盈利指引，但即使没有了政府补贴，该公司应该可保持盈利。

拥有这两家公司股份的腾讯亦有轻微的机会将虎牙与斗鱼合并。腾讯在4月份已经对虎牙有控股权益，假如腾讯将两者合并，将令这家游戏巨企主导中国的电竞直播市场。

但是斗鱼还值得买入吗？

分析师预计，斗鱼今年的收入及盈利将分别增长33％及135％，明年收入则增长23％，盈利增长45％。对于一只预期市盈率仅为18倍的股票来说，这是一个很高的增长率。

投资者可能会担心最近美国参议院威胁将在美国上市的中资股除牌的法案，但腾讯投资于斗鱼，反映其对这家电竞平台的信心。

我认为斗鱼的优势超过了监管风险，其低于上市价的股价其实是被低估了。斗鱼及虎牙应可继续蓬勃发展，因为中国的游戏及直播市场完全不受宏观不利因素所影响，未来定会继续发展。

DouYu International Holdings Limited International, one of China's largest video game and live streaming platforms, went public at $11.50 a share nearly a year ago. However, DouYu International Holdings Limited does not fascinate investors as much as its competitor HUYA Inc., because HUYA Inc. 's e-sports audience is relatively large.

DouYu International Holdings Limited's share price is still more than 20 per cent below its listing price, while HUYA Inc. is up 30 per cent from its IPO price. DouYu International Holdings Limited's latest quarterly report also failed to recover its upward trend. We might as well take a look at this often neglected e-sports stock to see if it is still worth buying.

How fast is DouYu International Holdings Limited's growth rate?

In the first quarter of this year, DouYu International Holdings Limited's average number of monthly active users (MAU) fell 1 per cent to 158.1 million from a year earlier. DouYu International Holdings Limited said this was due to the traditional off-season in the first quarter and the temporary closure of Internet cafes due to the coronavirus epidemic, which reduced the total number of PC users.

However, DouYu International Holdings Limited's mobile MAU grew by 15 per cent to 56.6 million as some users switched to their smartphone apps. The number of paying users also increased by 26% to 7.6 million.

By contrast, MAU of HUYA Inc. Live in the first quarter rose 22 per cent year-on-year to 151.3 million, mobile MAU jumped 39 per cent to 53.9 million, and the number of paying users rose 13 per cent to 5.4 million. HUYA Inc. 's audience is slightly smaller than DouYu International Holdings Limited, but it has more e-sports audience than DouYu International Holdings Limited's more diversified platform.

DouYu International Holdings Limited's income for the quarter rose 53% from a year earlier to 2.28 billion yuan ($321.1 million), more than $22.3 million than expected. DouYu International Holdings Limited's adjusted net income increased eightfold to 296.9 million yuan ($41.9 million). On the basis of GAAP, its net income also increased nearly 14-fold to 254.5 million yuan ($35.9 million), easing previous concerns about its lack of profits.

Why is DouYu International Holdings Limited's profit margin rising?

DouYu International Holdings Limited's gross profit margin rose from 13.6% to 21.3% a year, thanks to increased commercialization, reduced streaming costs and improved cost-effectiveness in the use of bandwidth. In addition, the company has added more top game content, developed more high-quality e-sports content, and deepened cooperation with developers and streaming media.

The subsidies provided by the government during the implementation of the anti-epidemic blockade measures have also reduced DouYu International Holdings Limited's sales and marketing expenses by 13% a year. As a result, the company recorded an adjusted operating profit of 11.4%, compared with an operating loss in the same period last year.

Both figures are better than HUYA Inc. 's adjusted gross profit margin of 20.3 per cent and operating margin of 9.4 per cent last quarter.

Two Chinese Twitches companies will continue to monopolize the market.

DouYu International Holdings Limited expects revenue to grow 26% to 28.7% year-on-year in the second quarter. This is slightly lower than HUYA Inc. 's forecast of 29.3% to 30.8% annual revenue growth in a comparable quarter, but it shows that the two platforms will continue to occupy a near-duopoly position in China's game live streaming market.

On DouYu International Holdings Limited's conference call, Chen Shaojie, chief executive, said: as we continue to improve the operation of the platform, we can maintain our growth momentum in mobile MAU. DouYu International Holdings Limited does not provide any profit margin or profit guidance, but even without government subsidies, the company should be able to remain profitable.

Tencent, who owns shares in these two companies, also has a slight chance to merge HUYA Inc. and DouYu International Holdings Limited. Tencent already has a controlling interest in HUYA Inc. in April, and if Tencent merges the two, the game giant will dominate China's e-sports live broadcast market.

But is DouYu International Holdings Limited still worth buying?

Analysts expect DouYu International Holdings Limited's income and earnings to grow by 33 per cent and 135 per cent this year, respectively, and 23 per cent and 45 per cent next year. This is a high growth rate for a stock with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 18 times.

Investors may worry about the recent US Senate threat to delist US-listed Chinese stocks, but Tencent's investment in DouYu International Holdings Limited reflects his confidence in the e-sports platform.

I think DouYu International Holdings Limited's advantage outweighs the regulatory risk, and his share price below the listing price is actually undervalued. DouYu International Holdings Limited and HUYA Inc. should be able to continue to flourish because China's gaming and live streaming market is completely unaffected by macro adverse factors and will continue to develop in the future.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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这只中国电竞股票还值得买入吗？