On July 27, the precious metal plate pulled up strongly.

On Monday, at midday in the domestic commodity futures market, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 2.87% to 430.86 yuan / g, a record high, hitting 435 yuan / g at one point in intraday trading, while the main contract of Shanghai Bank of China rose 6.10% to 5708 yuan / ton, the highest level since April 2013. at one point, it hit 5800 yuan / ton.

On the outer disk of the day, spot gold broke through 1940 US dollars / ounce, up more than 2% on the day, and continued to set a new record high. Spot silver surged 7%, hitting a seven-year high of $24.385 an ounce.

Multiple factors promote the "rising trend" of precious metals

Recently, precious metals, including gold and silver, have risen rapidly.

Wind carding shows that as of the latest closing day, the precious metals sector in the domestic commodity futures market has risen at the top since July. Among them, the main contract of the Shanghai Bank rose 23.58%, leading the rise in the commodity market, while the Shanghai Gold rose 5.04% over the same period.

Since the beginning of this year, the precious metals sector has led the rise in the domestic commodity market, with the main contracts of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver up 21.31% and 20.62% respectively over the same period.

Guoxin futuresAccording to the analysis of the research newspaper, the strong performance of precious metals in July was mainly boosted by rising inflation expectations, a weaker dollar index and rising risk aversion.

In addition, the closure of silver mines in Peru and other major South American producing countries has disturbed the supply side of silver, the recovery of clean energy and photovoltaic sectors has boosted demand for silver industry, and the concentrated influx of funds has further contributed to the rise of silver.

Societe Generale Research reportAnalysis, the rebound in inflation, the weakening dollar index brings positive to gold and silver, while geopolitical risks add fuel to the fire. Silver with stronger industrial attributes rose, and the ratio of gold to silver fell. Since then, the short-term may be adjusted, but it is difficult to change the bullish trend.

Citic Futures Research reportAccording to the analysis, the epidemic situation in the United States continues to slow down, real interest rates are negative, international political tensions intensify, the dollar weakens, the demand for safe-haven assets surges, and funds continue to flow into precious metals.

In additionSouthwest SecuritiesAccording to the research and report analysis, silver has both financial and industrial attributes. With the marginal recovery of industrial demand after the epidemic has stabilized and the rising gold / silver ratio brought about by rising gold prices, the gold / silver ratio is expected to be repaired and return to the mean.

Behind the big rise, the organization guesses the top.

Silver has risen rapidly since the beginning of this month, and gold has also risen. Looking ahead, institutions are generally optimistic.

Ping an SecuritiesThe research paper said that looking ahead, high risk aversion and continued weakness in US dollar and US debt interest rates provide support for the high level of precious metals.

Guoxin futuresResearch and newspaperAccording to the analysis, the allocation value of gold as a "de-dollarized" asset is highlighted, which may benefit from a weaker dollar and market safe-haven demand for more room to rise. In the long run, we will continue to see a further decline in bullish gold and silver and gold-silver ratio. However, under the background of the recent cooling of market risk sentiment and no significant improvement in crude oil demand, the commodity nature of silver may be difficult to drive silver to strengthen significantly again in the short term. Taking into account the sharp rise in silver in late July and the rapid return of the gold to silver ratio, if the US real economy weakens again, the silver rally may be suspended in the short term, and the gold to silver ratio may be dominated by shocks in the short term. the possibility of rising again in a pessimistic situation cannot be ruled out.

Bank of China InternationalThe research newspaper judged that in the weak dollar cycle, the strong logic of gold is expected to continue:

1. The long-term trend of real interest rates in the United States is the core variable affecting the long-term trend of gold prices. Under the weak dollar cycle, the strong logic of gold is expected to continue. Since the outbreak, 10-year US bonds have maintained negative interest rates, which has also become an important factor in boosting the current round of gold market.

2. During the transition from Combo recession to depression, the global economic downturn caused by the impact of the epidemic is likely to be the second impact during the Combo recession, which will accelerate the bottom of the inventory cycle and bring the upward driving force of the gold price cycle.

3. In the short term, the release of excess liquidity in overseas markets will also be a driving force for the future upward gold price.

Citic Construction InvestmentThe research newspaper judged that looking forward to the second half of 2020, under the uncertain environment of the COVID-19 epidemic and its policy response, as well as the uncertainty that the US election may bring about a phased escalation of the great power game, the main tone of monetary policy easing in the United States will not change. It is also a high probability event that Europe will perform better than the United States in stages. The global supply chain seems to have adapted to the impact of the first round of COVID-19 epidemic to support commodity prices (the probability of inflation is also low). Gold, as a beneficiary of easing and risk aversion, has shown strong strength. The United States is expected to remain strong before the election and is expected to break through an all-time high of 2000 US dollars per ounce in the near future.

In addition, the gold-silver ratio is expected to fall to around 75 in the next 6-12 months, and silver continues to rise! If the gold / silver ratio returns to around 75, even if the price of gold falls by 10%, silver should be above $22.1 / oz. If gold rises further, silver is expected to break through the $30 / oz mark.

Societe Generale Research reportIt is also believed that the two main factors dragging down gold in the second quarter of 2020-weak demand in emerging markets and a lack of willingness of hedge funds to be long on gold-are turning into positive factors. Gold is expected to challenge an all-time high of $2000 an ounce in the next three to six months.

It is worth noting thatCitic Construction InvestmentThe Futures Research Daily also warned earlier that, generally speaking, the opening up of the economy is superimposed with loose liquidity, the market expects real interest rates to fall further, and precious metals have better support, but we should also guard against the rebound of the epidemic in the United States, the fading of optimism, and the risk that inflation will fall short of expectations.

Prospect of investment strategy

The strength of the precious metal sector at the same time, institutions remind the market to pay attention to relevant investment opportunities.

Minsheng SecuritiesAccording to the analysis of the newspaper, the global money printing model has revived, the 750 billion yuan recovery fund of the European Central Bank has been approved, and the trillion-dollar stimulus package in the United States is about to be launched. at the same time, the Fed's yield control curve policy is still expected, and gold prices fluctuate upward in the short term. Inflation expectations are gradually repaired, real interest rates still have room for decline, and gold prices fluctuate upward in the medium term. The global monetary easing environment is expected to continue, the credit of paper money will be tested, and the long-term upward judgment of precious metals will be maintained. In the early stage of the global economic recovery, we should pay attention to the silver growth brought about by the restoration of the industrial attributes of silver.

Sino-Thai SecuritiesAccording to the research and newspaper analysis, under the logical framework of the real rate of return, the driving force of the future rise in precious metals will also come from:

1. The trend of economic weakness is difficult to change, and US far-end interest rates may continue to decline.

2. The expected further repair of deflation. All these make the rising channel of gold smooth, and as the economy resumes work and production, the silver industry property is restored, with over-rise options.

3. Precious metals are still one of the key areas of allocation this year.

Southwest SecuritiesThe research newspaper believes that as the price of gold continues to rise, there is more room for repair in the ratio of gold to silver. After the performance-to-price ratio of investing in silver highlights that the ratio of gold to silver deviates significantly from the average, the average regression is usually achieved by the increase in silver price exceeding that of gold price. With the stabilization of the epidemic situation of COVID-19, the warming of the demand of electronics, photovoltaic and other industries, and the increase of the demand for silver brought by the large-scale commercial use of 5G, there is more room for repair of the ratio of gold to silver.

Anxin SecuritiesPrevious research newspaper believed that the return of the king with a steep silver slope is expected to open, and it is recommended to pay attention to the A-share silver, lead and zinc targets.