The upward movement in the market price of Feitian Maotai triggered a reversal in sector sentiment, with Guizhou Maotai surging during intraday trading and multiple stocks, including Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye Yibin, hitting their daily trading limits. Is the signal for capital flowing back into 'core consumption' becoming clearer?
In the afternoon of January 29, the liquor sector of China's A-share market experienced a long-awaited and significant collective surge.
By the close of trading that day, the share price of Kweichow Maotai surged by more than 8%, with its stock price rebounding to 1,400 yuan. Multiple individual stocks in the liquor sector, including Luzhou Laojiao, Swellfun,舍得酒业(Shede Spirits), Jiugui Liquor, and Huangtai Liquor, either hit the daily limit or showed notable gains. The overall performance of the sector significantly outperformed other areas of the market, making it one of the most active sectors of the day. The CSI Liquor Index demonstrated clear intraday gains, indicating an increase in industry-wide coordination, while food and beverage-related ETFs rose simultaneously.
The direct factor driving this rebound in the liquor sector was the sustained upward trend in prices for Feitian Maotai and other key products. Third-party pricing data showed that on January 29, the wholesale price for original-box Feitian Maotai exceeded 1,600 yuan per bottle, with prices for various vintages and packaging rising notably compared to the previous day. Terminal sales and channel restocking expectations were boosted by pre-holiday effects.
The recovery in prices was interpreted by the market as an early signal of gradually improving demand, which is particularly important following a period of prolonged price weakness in the liquor sector.
From a structural analysis perspective, the liquor sector underwent a prolonged adjustment cycle throughout 2025, with a significant reduction in capital allocation. According to the latest disclosed public fund holdings data, allocations to liquor-related funds and heavily-weighted liquor stocks have dropped to historical lows. This process of reducing positions has, to some extent, mitigated earlier risks. When prices and price expectations began to improve, technical conditions emerged that made it easier to attract undervalued capital inflows, enhancing the strength of the rebound.
Changes in the fundamental aspects of the industry are also becoming evident. Brokerage research reports suggest that the liquor sector could see improvements in both supply and demand dynamics by 2026. On one hand, premium product prices remain robust, and channel turnover is gradually increasing; on the other hand, mass consumption remains stable, and product structure optimization is steadily progressing. Inventory digestion and product line innovation on the supply side are also supporting market confidence in medium- to long-term industry prospects.
China Merchants Securities noted in its research report that recent trends in Maotai's sales and wholesale prices have exceeded market expectations, and highlighted the traditional channel sales rhythm in the two weeks leading up to the February holiday. Meanwhile, CITIC Securities focused on marketing activities during the Spring Festival peak season and changes on the channel side, emphasizing assessments of Spring Festival sales and subsequent recovery paths.
Consumer confidence closely tied to the liquor sector has also shown signs of recovery. The overall rise of the 'food and drink sector' in the afternoon reflected renewed interest from investors in traditional consumer areas, driven jointly by pre-Spring Festival stocking demand and price signals. Food and beverage ETFs and their constituent stocks exhibited widespread gains during the trading session, further demonstrating the tendency of large-cap funds to seek certainty-oriented assets amid a temporarily pressured market.
Despite the significant rebound in the liquor sector, the market also displayed clear rotation characteristics and structural performance: cyclical sectors such as resource stocks, precious metals, and oil and gas also saw varying degrees of activity, while technology and growth sectors remained under pressure. This indicates that current market styles are still in a dynamic adjustment phase, and the rise in the liquor sector appears to reflect a stage driven by expectations of fundamental recovery and pre-holiday capital preferences rather than a definitive signal of a comprehensive style shift.
The future trajectory of the liquor industry will continue to depend on variables such as terminal sales data, the progress of channel inventory digestion, and whether post-holiday demand can sustainably release. Until these key metrics become clearer, whether the liquor sector can maintain its recent strength will require close attention to specific market performance and fundamental changes in the coming weeks.
