Looking at China from foreign companies' financial reports: China's revenue is the main growth force for Tesla (TSLA.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), etc.

智通财经网 · Jul 23, 2020 17:39

原标题：从外企财报看中国：中国收入成特斯拉(TSLA.US)、强生(JNJ.US)等增长主力来源：智通财经网

本文来自微信公众号“Kevin策略研究”，作者：刘刚、王汉锋。

特斯拉连续第四季度实现盈利，Model 3在中国畅销，预计上海工厂Model Y明年交付;Burberry中国成增长主力，二季度两位数增长，6月销售已超公共卫生事件前水平;耐克大中华区恢复增长，数字业务和Jordan品牌年收入达10亿美元;强生中国收入恢复两位数增长，特别是医疗器械;雅培在华儿童营养品销量下滑，但成熟药品两位数强劲增长;美光二季度增长强劲，中国智能手机需求激增，但认为三季度存在不确定性(7月23日)

►特斯拉（TSLA.US，2019年中国地区收入占比11.8%），二季度连续第四季度实现盈利；Model 3在中国畅销，预计上海工厂首批Model Y明年交付。2020年二季度总收入为60.4亿美元，环比增长1%，同比下滑5%；连续第四个季度实现盈利。二季度总产量8.23万辆（Model 3/S各7.6万和6326辆），同比下滑56%；交付9.08万辆（Model 3/S各约8万和1万辆），同比下滑40%。

目前公司正在Fremont工厂组装更多车辆，预计将使Model 3 / Model Y的总产能从每年40万台增加到50万台。上海工厂方面，Model 3在中国受到广泛欢迎，不仅成为最畅销的电动汽车，而且在没有补贴和车辆税的情况下，还与宝马3系和梅赛德斯C-等中型高档轿车竞争，当前上海工厂Model 3每年的组装产量为20万辆。目前中国的Model 3中使用的是磷酸铁电池，使用磷酸铁电池组可以达到近300英里的里程，公司计划在今年晚些时候开始量产。另外上海工厂的Y型生产线正在按计划进行建设，预计2021年首批交付。

目前中国市场的毛利润在改善，但随着产能的不断扩大，目前仍未满负荷运转，管理层认为未来仍存在优化成本结构的机会，并且认为中国工厂周围有很多有能力的供应商来帮助实现这一点。未来公司将继续通过成本优化和紧密资本运营来管理现金流量，并会继续扩大业务规模为在未来1.5年内启动三个新工厂做准备。

►Burberry（BRBY-GB，2019年中国地区收入占比17%），中国市场成为增长主力，二季度两位数增长；6月销售已超过公共卫生事件前水平。公司二季度（2021财年一季度）零售收入同比下滑48%，主要受公共卫生事件冲击的负面影响。分市场来看，亚太地区最早开始复苏且中国二季度增长达两位数，这主要得益于数字业务的超预期表现以及销售额逐月改善，六月份的中国市场销售额甚至已经超过公共卫生事件爆发前一季度的水平。分产品来看，公司于4月份专门在中国大陆发起了皮革商品推广活动，中国市场反应热烈，最终反映为一季度全价袋（full-price bag）销量增长强劲。展望未来，公司预计公共卫生事件仍会对第二季度的业绩产生重大影响。同时，公司将加强对品牌的投资，并继续通过新产品和创新活动来吸引消费者。

►耐克（NKE.US，2019年中国地区收入占比15.7%），大中华区恢复增长；大中华区数字化业务和Jordan品牌年收入超过或接近10亿美元；预计逐步改善。公司2020财年四季度（3月1日至5月31日）收入同比下滑38%，扣除汇率影响下滑36%，主要受自有门店停业和低出货量影响，但部分下滑被耐克数字化业务（NIKE Digital）增长对冲。分地区来看，大中华地区和韩国的业务已经恢复正增长，北美、EMEA（欧洲、中东和非洲地区）、APLA（亚太和拉美地区）的其他地区仍处于恢复期，商店在5月和6月初开始重新营业。

中国方面，大中华区业务已恢复增长（扣除汇率影响），并在逐月改善，其中包括5月份的两位数强劲增长。同时，大中华区的耐克数字化业务（NIKE Digital）增长了79%，公司在大中华区的年数字收入首次超过10亿美元。此外，2020财年，Jordan品牌的大中华区业务增长了50%以上，年收入接近10亿美元。

展望未来，公司预计随着零售业的重新开放以及整体市场供需正常化，未来的财务业绩将比四季度有所改善，且公司预计2021财年的收入将与上一年持平。

►强生（JNJ.US，2019年中国地区收入占比3.0%），二季度全球收入同比下降10.8%，但中国区收入恢复至两位数增长，特别是医疗器械。公司2020年二季度全球销售收入18.3亿美元，同比下降10.8%，亚太和非洲地区同比下降9.3%。分产品来看，消费者保健业务全球收入为33亿美元，同比下降3.6%，其中公共卫生事件造成了约700个基点的下降，皮肤健康/美容方面收入同比下降16.2%，为最大拖累因素。医药业务二季度收入为108亿美元，同比增长3.9%，这得益于除心血管，代谢和心血管疾病以外的关键治疗领域的增长。医疗器械二季度收入为43亿美元，同比下降32.7%，下降幅度最大。

中国方面，在医疗器械业务强劲反弹的带动下，二季度中国区收入恢复增长，增速达到两位数。其中中国区介入解决方案（Interventional Solutions）业务二季度增长尤其强劲，达到了两位数的增长速度，带动该项业务全球范围内在6月份实现近3％的增长。

向前看，管理层预计三季度调整后的营业销售收入为810亿美元至825亿美元，调整后的税前营业利润率下降100个基点。

►雅培制药（ABT.US，2018年中国地区收入占比7.1%），中国儿童营养品销量因出生率低出现下滑，但成熟药品实现两位数强劲增长。公司二季度整体内生收入下滑5.4%。分产品来看，受市场领先的口服液品牌小安素（PediaSure）和倍得力（Pedialyte）的全球增长拉动，儿童营养品销售额持续增长，虽然大中华区由于低出生率导致销售表现疲软，但亚洲其他国家在儿童营养品方面都出现了强劲增长。此外，二季度成熟药品（EPD）销售额与一季度基本持平，其中中国市场实现了两位数强劲增长。向前看，公司预期二季度良好的复苏和市场表现有望延续至下半年。

►美光科技（MU.US，2019年中国地区收入占比15.4%），二季度增长强劲；中国智能手机需求激增；三季度存在不确定性。公司2020年二季度（公司财年三季度）表现强劲，销售收入达到54亿美元，同比上升14%，总利润率为33.2%。分产品来看，动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）二季度销售收入达到36亿美元，占二季度总收入的66%，同比增加6%。NAND闪存二季度销售收入达到17亿美元，贡献了二季度31%的总收入，同比增加超过50%。公司正在增加业界最先进的DRAM节点，并增加高价值NAND的组合。

公司密切关注客户的需求，特别是在移动设备领域，在中国可以看到自4月份公共卫生事件以后，中国国内对智能手机的需求激增，某些客户可能已经建立一些库存。云计算方面，公司没有提供中国进一步的细节，但表示云计算实际上仍处于早期阶段，长期的趋势很强。

向前看，管理层预计三季度的销售收入在57.5亿美元至62.5亿美元，总利润率在35.5%上下1.5%的区间内波动。另外，管理层认为智能手机等消费类设备的终端设备销售已开始恢复，但是最近第二波公共卫生事件会对公司业务带来更大的不确定性。

Original title: looking at China from the Financial reports of Foreign Enterprises: China's income into TSLA.US (Tesla), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) and other main sources of growth: Zhitong Financial and Economics Network

This article comes from the official account "Kevin Strategy Research" of Wechat. The authors: Liu Gang and Wang Hanfeng.

Tesla, Inc. made a profit for the fourth consecutive quarter, Model 3 is selling well in China, and the Shanghai factory Model Y is expected to deliver next year; Burberry China has become the main growth force, with double-digit growth in the second quarter, and sales in June have exceeded the pre-public health level; Nike Inc Greater China has returned to growth, with annual revenue of digital business and Jordan brand reaching US $1 billion; Johnson & Johnson's income in China has returned to double-digit growth, especially medical devices. Abbott Laboratories's children's nutrition sales in China fell, but mature drugs grew strongly in double digits. Micron grew strongly in the second quarter and demand for smartphones in China surged, but said there was uncertainty in the third quarter.

►Tesla(TSLA.US, 11.8% of revenue in China in 2019)Make a profit for the fourth consecutive quarter in the second quarterModel 3It sells well in China and is expected to be the first batch of factories in Shanghai.Model YDelivery next year.Total revenue in the second quarter of 2020 was US $6.04 billion, up 1% from the previous month and down 5% from the same period last year, making a profit for the fourth consecutive quarter. Total production fell 56 per cent in the second quarter to 82300 vehicles (76000 and 6326 each for the Model 3Universe), while 90800 vehicles were delivered (about 80 and 10, 000 for the Model 3Universe), down 40 per cent from a year earlier.

The company is currently assembling more vehicles at its Fremont plant, which is expected to increase the total production capacity of the Model 3 / Model Y from 400000 to 500000 per year. In terms of the Shanghai factory, the Model 3 is widely popular in China, becoming not only the best-selling electric car, but also competing with medium-sized premium cars such as the BMW 3-Series and Mercedes C-without subsidies and vehicle taxes. The Shanghai plant currently assembles 200000 Model 3 vehicles a year. China's Model 3 currently uses iron phosphate batteries, which can reach nearly 300 miles, and the company plans to start mass production later this year. In addition, the Y-type production line of the Shanghai plant is under construction as planned, and the first delivery is expected in 2021.

At present, the gross profit of the Chinese market is improving, but with the continuous expansion of production capacity, it is still not operating at full capacity, and the management believes that there are still opportunities to optimize the cost structure in the future. and that there are many capable suppliers around Chinese factories to help achieve this. In the future, the company will continue to manage cash flow through cost optimization and tight capital operations, and will continue to expand its business in preparation for the launch of three new plants in the next 1.5 years.

►Burberry(BRBY-GB, 17% of income in China in 2019)The Chinese market has become the main growth force, with double-digit growth in the second quarter.6Monthly sales have exceeded the pre-public health level.. The company's retail revenue fell 48% in the second quarter (the first quarter of fiscal 2021) compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the negative impact of public health events. In terms of market segments, the Asia-Pacific region was the first to recover and China grew by double digits in the second quarter, mainly due to the better-than-expected performance of the digital business and monthly sales improvement.Sales in China in June even exceeded the level of the previous quarter before the outbreak of the public health incident.. In terms of products, the company launched a leather goods promotion campaign on Chinese mainland in April, and the Chinese market responded enthusiastically, which was finally reflected by the strong growth in full-price bags (full-price bag) sales in the first quarter. Looking ahead, the company expects public health events to continue to have a significant impact on second-quarter results. At the same time, the company will strengthen its investment in brands and continue to attract consumers through new products and innovative activities.

►Nike Inc(NKE.US, 15.7% of revenue in China in 2019)Greater China resumes growth; Greater China Digital Business andJordanThe annual revenue of the brand exceeds or approaches10Billion US dollars; expected to improve gradually. The company's revenue fell 38% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 (March 1 to May 31) compared with the same period last year, and 36% after deducting the effect of exchange rate, mainly due to the closure of its own stores and low shipments, but some of the decline was offset by the growth of Nike Inc's digital business (NIKE Digital). From a regional perspective, business in Greater China and South Korea has returned to positive growth, while other parts of North America, EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and APLA (Asia Pacific and Latin America) are still recovering, and stores reopened in May and early June.

In China, business in Greater China has returned to growth (excluding exchange rate effects) and is improving month by month, including strong double-digit growth in May. meanwhile,Nike Inc Digital Business in Greater China(NIKE Digital) grew by 79%, and the company's annual digital revenue in Greater China exceeded $1 billion for the first time. In addition, fiscal year 2020JordanThe brand's Greater China business has grown.50%Above, the annual income is close to10One billion US dollars.

Looking ahead, the company expects future financial results to improve compared with the fourth quarter with the reopening of the retail industry and the normalization of overall market supply and demand, and the company expects revenue for fiscal 2021 to be the same as the previous year.

►Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US, revenue in China accounted for 3.0% in 2019)Global revenue fell in the second quarter compared with the same period last year.10.8%But income in China returned to double-digit growth, especially in medical devices. The company's global sales revenue in the second quarter of 2020 was US $1.83 billion, down 10.8% from the same period last year, and 9.3% in Asia Pacific and Africa. In terms of products, the global revenue of the consumer health business was US $3.3 billion, down 3.6% from the same period last year, with public health incidents causing a decline of about 700bp and skin health / beauty revenue down 16.2% from the same period last year, which was the biggest drag. Second-quarter revenue from the pharmaceutical business was $10.8 billion, up 3.9% from a year earlier, thanks to growth in key treatment areas other than cardiovascular, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. Revenue from medical devices in the second quarter was $4.3 billion, down 32.7% from the same period last year.

In China, driven by a strong rebound in medical device business, revenue in China resumed growth in the second quarter, with a double-digit growth rate.. Among them, the China intervention Solutions (Interventional Solutions) business grew particularly strongly in the second quarter, reaching double-digit growth rates, leading to global growth of nearly 3 per cent in June.

Looking ahead, management expects adjusted operating sales of $81 billion to $82.5 billion in the third quarter and a 100bp decline in adjusted pre-tax operating margin.

►Abbott Laboratories Pharmaceutical(ABT.US, China accounted for 7.1% of revenue in 2018)Sales of children's nutrition in China declined due to a low birth rate, but mature drugs achieved strong double-digit growth.The company's overall endogenous revenue fell 5.4% in the second quarter. In terms of products, sales of children's nutrition continued to grow, driven by the global growth of the market's leading oral liquid brands PediaSure and Pedialyte, and although sales performance in Greater China was weak due to low birth rates, other countries in Asia showed strong growth in child nutrition. In addition, sales of mature drugs (EPD) in the second quarter were basically the same as those in the first quarter.Among them, the Chinese market has achieved double-digit strong growth.. Looking ahead, the company expects a good recovery and market performance in the second quarter to continue into the second half of the year.

►Micron Technology Inc(MU.US, revenue in China accounted for 15.4% in 2019)Strong growth in the second quarter; surging demand for smartphones in China; and uncertainty in the third quarter.The company performed strongly in the second quarter of 2020 (the third quarter of the company's fiscal year), with sales of $5.4 billion, up 14% from a year earlier, and a total profit margin of 33.2%. In terms of products, sales of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) reached US $3.6 billion in the second quarter, accounting for 66 per cent of total revenue in the second quarter, up 6 per cent from the same period last year. NAND flash sales reached $1.7 billion in the second quarter, contributing 31% of total revenue in the second quarter, up more than 50% from a year earlier. The company is adding the industry's most advanced DRAM nodes and adding a portfolio of high-value NAND.

The company keeps a close eye on customer needs, especially in the field of mobile devices, as can be seen in China since the public health incident in AprilChina's domestic demand for smartphones is surging, and some customers may have built up some inventory. In terms of cloud computing, the company did not provide further details in China, but said that cloud computing is actually still in its early stages and the long-term trend is strong.

Looking ahead, management expects third-quarter sales to range from $5.75 billion to $6.25 billion, with total profit margins fluctuating between 35.5% and 1.5%. In addition,Management believes that terminal device sales of consumer devices such as smartphones have begun to recover, but the recent second wave of public health incidents will bring more uncertainty to the company's business.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

从外企财报看中国：中国收入成特斯拉(TSLA.US)、强生(JNJ.US)等增长主力

Looking at China from foreign companies' financial reports: China's revenue is the main growth force for Tesla (TSLA.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), etc.

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