From January to December 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, headwear, and textile products in China amounted to 1.52 trillion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 3.2%). In Q4 of 2025, the figures were up by 6.3%, 3.5%, and 0.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. Higher winter temperatures led to a slowdown in winter apparel sales.
According to the Zhitong Finance app, Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that from January to December of 2025, China's retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textile products amounted to 1.52 trillion yuan (an increase of 3.2% year-over-year), with Q4 of 2025 showing respective year-over-year growth rates of +6.3%, +3.5%, and +0.6%. Higher winter temperatures resulted in slower sales of winter clothing. In terms of external demand, China's textile and apparel exports reached $293.8 billion (a decrease of 2.6% year-over-year). By comparison, Vietnam's textile exports totaled $39.6 billion (an increase of 7.0% year-over-year), indicating that Vietnam's export growth rate exceeded China’s, reflecting order divergence among production regions in the context of textile supply chain shifts. Tariff policies have created tariff differentials between different production areas, further intensifying this divergence and accelerating the shift. In the medium to long term, this trend benefits companies with mature overseas capabilities and global capacity allocation.
The key viewpoints of Shenwan Hongyuan are as follows:
Terminal demand growth slowed in Q4 of 2025, while outcomes of tariff negotiations gradually boosted export momentum.
1) Domestic demand: From January to December, China's retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textile products totaled 1.52 trillion yuan (an increase of 3.2% year-over-year), with respective year-over-year growth rates for October, November, and December at +6.3%, +3.5%, and +0.6%. Higher winter temperatures led to slower sales of winter clothing.
2) External demand: From January to December, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $293.8 billion (a decrease of 2.6% year-over-year), including $142.6 billion in textiles (an increase of 0.4% year-over-year) and $151.2 billion in apparel and accessories (a decrease of 5.2% year-over-year). By comparison, Vietnam's textile exports totaled $39.6 billion (an increase of 7.0% year-over-year), and its footwear exports reached $24.2 billion (an increase of 5.8% year-over-year). Vietnam's higher export growth rate reflects order divergence among production regions amid textile supply chain shifts. Tariff policies have created tariff differentials between different production areas, which will further intensify divergence and accelerate the shift. In the medium to long term, this trend benefits companies with mature overseas capabilities and global capacity allocation.
Hong Kong-listed sports sector: Amid an overall slowdown in industry growth, premium outdoor and niche sports brands maintain high potential.
Weak winter clothing consumption in December dragged down overall sales in Q4 of 2025. It is expected that FILA/outdoor brand revenue streams grew by mid-single digits/35%-40% year-over-year. The group of outdoor brands continued its robust growth, while value-for-money brand 361 Degrees' offline revenue streams increased by 10% year-over-year, and Xtep's main brand revenue streams grew slightly. Looking ahead to catalysts such as the 2026 Winter Olympics and extended Spring Festival holidays, demand for sports brands is expected to steadily recover.
Men’s, women’s, and children’s wear: Warmer winter temperatures may disrupt sales; opportunities for turnaround in women’s wear are worth noting.
1) Women’s wear: It is projected that in Q4 of 2025, Xinhè/Geli Si/Dazhù revenues will grow by high single digits/remain flat/remain flat year-over-year, with net profits attributable to parent companies reversing losses/reversing losses/growing significantly. As companies undergo deep adjustments and quality improvements, turnaround opportunities are promising. 2) Men’s wear: It is expected that Hailan’s revenue/net profit attributable to parent companies will grow by 5%/20% year-over-year, with steady growth in the main brand and profitability in urban outlet stores. Expansion may accelerate in 2026. 3) Children’s wear: It is anticipated that in Q4 of 2025, Semir’s revenue/net profit attributable to parent companies will remain flat year-over-year, Jiaman’s revenue will grow slightly, and the decline in net profit attributable to parent companies will narrow significantly compared to Q3 of 2025. Expectations remain for pro-natal policies to boost maternal and child consumption.
Home textiles: Fuanna remains in a destocking cycle, while Luo Lai and Mercury demonstrate stable performance.
It is expected that in Q4 of 2025, Luo Lai’s revenue/net profit attributable to parent companies will grow by 8%/remain flat year-over-year, with potential goodwill impairment from Lexington weakening profits by year-end. Under a high base in December, Mercury’s revenue/net profit attributable to parent companies is expected to grow by 8%/10% year-over-year. Fuanna remains in a destocking cycle, with both revenue and net profit attributable to parent companies expected to decline.
Non-woven fabric industry chain: Continuously benefiting from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with performance maintaining rapid growth.
It is expected that in Q4 2025, Robust/Extend Jiang/Nobo’s revenue will increase year-on-year by 10%/15%/20%, while net profit attributable to shareholders will experience high growth/turn to profitability/grow by 20%. This growth trend will continue, mainly due to the low base in Q4 2024 for Robust. The global wet wipes market is valued at hundreds of billions, with China's market reaching tens of billions, growing faster than the global average. We remain optimistic about the rise of new professional brands supported by high-quality supply chains. Additionally, there is substantial room for replacing overseas hot-air non-woven fabrics, favoring companies deeply tied to international hygiene brands as they continue to gain order share.
Textile manufacturing: Adjustments in Nike and other brands' performance have caused fluctuations in the sports manufacturing chain. We are optimistic about the Australian wool industry chain, which benefits from clear supply contraction and emerging demand increments.
1) Midstream: Due to volatility in Nike, Converse, and other brands’ performance, the relevant manufacturing supply chains have seen weak orders. It is expected that in Q4 2025, Shenzhou, Huali, and Yuyuan's performance will face pressure. 2) Upstream: With a clear contraction in Australian wool production and growing demand for sports wool apparel driving up Australian wool prices, Xinao has benefited from sufficient inventory preparedness amid rising wool prices. Order recovery is expected to gradually translate into earnings elasticity, with revenue projected to grow by double digits and profit margins showing even higher elasticity in Q4 2025.
Industry perspectives and investment analysis opinions
Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is expected to recover gradually, focusing on high-growth consumption areas: ① High-performance outdoor: Bosideng (03998), Anta (02020), TopSports (06110), 361 Degrees (01361). Suggested attention on Berghaus (prospectus submitted), Li Ning (02331), and Xtep (01368); ② Discount retail: Hailan Home (600398.SH) (under JD.com Outlets); ③ Personal care and cleaning: Nobo Co., Ltd. (603238.SH), Winner Medical (300888.SZ), Jieya Co., Ltd. (300978.SZ); ④ Sleep economy: Luolai Lifestyle (002293.SZ), Mercury Home Textiles (603365.SH).
As global tariff negotiations gradually conclude, this does not alter the core competitiveness of global manufacturing: ① Sports manufacturing supply chain: Shenzhou International (02313), Huali Group (300979.SZ), Yuyuan Group (00551), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003.SZ), and Blueribbon East (601339.SH); ② Australian wool price cycle: Xinao Co., Ltd. (603889.SH); ③ Hygiene materials upgrade supply chain: Extend Jiang Co., Ltd. (300658.SZ).
Risk Warning
Slower-than-expected consumption recovery; intensified industry competition; inventory impairment risks; rising raw material costs.
