On July 21, local time, the United States suddenly asked the Chinese side to close the Consulate General in Houston before 4: 00 p.m. on July 24, and the staff of the consulate would be asked to leave.

Since the Sino-US trade war in 2018, Sino-US relations have rapidly evolved from trade wars and scientific and technological wars to comprehensive political, economic, trade, military and other confrontations, accelerating towards a "new cold war era."

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic this year, the confrontation between the two countries escalated rapidly, the diplomatic dialogue became irrational, and the exchange of public opinion and ideology was fierce. The United States suspended flights and schools from China, passed relevant laws against Hong Kong and Xinjiang, said it would issue laws against Taiwan and the Communist Party, and now directly expelled diplomats.

Why are Sino-US relations so fragile?

In 2007, Neil Ferguson, a professor of economic history at Harvard University, and Professor schlick of the Free University of Berlin coined a new word, "China and the United States" (Chimerica), saying that China and the United States had entered an era of symbiosis.

Today, "China and the United States" is broken. Economic and trade relations are the ballast stone of the relations between the two countries. So why has the huge bilateral trade between the two countries failed to stabilize Sino-US relations? Will China and the United States move towards a new cold war era?

From the perspective of the trade structure of the two countries, this paper takes the collapse and reconstruction of the global order as a clue to explore Sino-US relations.

01. Sino-US trade and relationship fragility

At the beginning of 2018, many Chinese did not believe that the United States would really wage a trade war against China, let alone the hard decoupling between China and the United States.

Reason 1: China is the world's largest trader of goods, the largest exporter of goods, and the second largest importer of goods.

The United States is the second largest commodity trader, the second largest commodity exporter and the world's largest importer of goods.

According to the World Trade Organization, global trade totaled US $39.342 trillion in 2018. China is the largest trading country, with imports and exports totaling US $4.62 trillion, accounting for 11.75 percent, while the United States is the second largest trading country, with imports and exports totaling US $4.278 trillion, accounting for 10.87 percent.

If the eldest and the second fight a trade war, won't the world turn over?

Reason 2: China is the largest factory in the United States, and the United States is China's largest market.

According to customs statistics, China's imports and exports to the United States in 2018 are 4.18 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.7% of the total import and export value. Of this total, exports to the United States totaled 3.16 trillion yuan and imports from the United States totaled 1.02 trillion yuan, with a trade surplus of 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7 percent.

The largest factory is hard decoupled from the largest market, and the global industrial chain will collapse.

Reason 3: China has long been the largest creditor of the United States, and the United States has been the largest debtor of China for a long time.

The balance of US Treasuries held by China in February 2018 was $1.177 trillion, while the foreign exchange assets of China's official reserves were $3.134 trillion, most of which were in US dollars.

With the biggest debtors and creditors at loggerheads, can the world be at peace?

In the era of globalization, economic and trade relations are the ballast stone of Sino-US relations. However, the gorgeous trade data between the two countries have caused us a great misunderstanding. Despite the clouds, through the data, we can clearly see the fragility of Sino-US relations and the structural conflicts in economy and trade between the two countries.

First, the scale of Sino-US trade is large, but the economic and trade level between the two countries is low and the level of cooperation is shallow.

The evolution of economic globalization has gradually developed from the initial trade globalization to the globalization of information, capital, science and technology, talents and other elements, and then to the advanced globalization of finance, currency, national sovereignty, values, marriage and life.

The United States, Japan and Europe have entered the stage of factor globalization. The euro zone reached an advanced stage, with a unified currency, fiscal coordination, diplomacy, national defense and free intermarriage. There have been two world wars in Europe, but the accelerated struggle for hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II led to an European community with a shared future. Nowadays, it is impossible for euro zone countries to fight trade war, science and technology war and financial war, and it is very difficult to have another war.

Sino-US economic and trade relations are still in the initial stage of commodity trade, the exchange and trade of finance, technology, information and other elements are too low, and there is basically no advanced integration such as finance and marriage.

In 2018, China imported and exported 4.18 trillion yuan to the United States, the vast majority of which were merchandise trade, with few trade in services, technology and finance.

Although the United States has long transferred ordinary manufacturing technology to China, due to the restrictions of the high-tech embargo, the two countries lack in-depth scientific and technological cooperation, and China has not been integrated into international technical standards and rules for a long time.

In 1949, the United States issued the Export Control Act and led the establishment of the Paris Co-ordinating Committee, which imposed a high-tech embargo on socialist countries, including China. After Nixon's visit to China, especially after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, the United States gradually relaxed export controls on air defense radars, communications, computers, and so on.

However, in 1999, the US Congress issued the Cox report, which re-tightened high-tech exports to China. According to the data of the US Department of Commerce, the US export control list of dual-use goods to China includes 10 categories, including nuclear materials, material processing technology, electronic technology, and marine exploration technology.

According to statistics from China's Ministry of Commerce, US export controls have led to a continuous decline in the proportion of US exports of high-tech products to China in imports of similar products, from 18.3 per cent in 2001 to 8.6 per cent in 2013.

China's finance is not yet open, and American financial institutions are restricted in their operations in China. The two countries are in two different financial systems, and China is not integrated into the international financial system dominated by the US dollar.

Huang Qifan, former deputy director of the Financial and Economic Committee of the National people's Congress, pointed out that "of China's nearly 200 trillion financial assets, foreign financial institutions account for only 1.8 per cent. By contrast, foreign-funded enterprises account for 30 per cent of the same nearly 200 trillion of industrial and commercial assets. "[1]

Economic and trade relations are the ballast stone of China and the United States, but the huge amount of bilateral trade between China and the United States is not as solid as imagined. Business owners in the export business know very well that although they have been doing business with Americans for a long time, there is little friendship between the two, and the order is gone.

In 2018, China's imports and exports to the United States were 4.18 trillion yuan; in 2019, that figure fell to 3.73 trillion, down 10.7 percent. The United States is only China's third largest trading partner after the European Union and ASEAN.

Many people believe that China is the largest importer of the United States, and it is difficult for the United States to find such a "world factory" in a short period of time. However, the United States reduced its imports to China by about 10% in 2019, and there was no shortage of goods or rising prices in the United States. This means that this 10% is transferred to other countries or independent supply.

In fact, such a shaky marriage between China and the United States is easy to be taken advantage of by a "third party". Vietnam took advantage of the Sino-US trade war to fully and rapidly open up, and Vietnam's exports to the United States increased by nearly 40% in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the same period last year.

China's biggest advantage is a sound industrial network, but the construction of industrial network is not as difficult as imagined. As long as the leading enterprises move, the relevant upstream suppliers will follow, coupled with infrastructure, an industrial network will soon be formed. Many of these people who do business with the United States are still Chinese, but they have just changed places.

Second, the trade structure between China and the United States is seriously deformed and the economic structure of the two countries is out of balance.

China has a long-term surplus with the United States, which continues to expand, while the United States has a long-term trade deficit with China.

In 2018, China exported 3.16 trillion yuan to the United States and imported 1.02 trillion yuan from the United States, with a trade surplus of 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7 percent. In dollar terms, China's trade surplus with the US was $323.32 billion, an increase of 17.2 per cent over the same period last year.

Many people support the trade surplus and think that the trade surplus can earn more dollars. This is actually a kind of mercantilism. Mercantilist Thomas Meng proposed in the second chapter of his famous "Britain's Wealth from Foreign Trade". The basic means to increase our wealth is to earn a trade balance: "the value of the goods we sell to foreigners every year is greater than the value of the foreign goods we consume." "[2]

In fact, the balance of payments is the most beneficial to the economies of the two countries. Long-term, huge trade surplus or trade deficit will bring huge welfare losses. The balance of payments of China and the United States has been out of balance and distorted for a long time, and the imbalance in the balance of payments triggered the threshold and the outbreak of trade war.

Some people say that China's long-term surplus with the United States is the result of the comparative advantages of the two countries, and the trade between the two countries is complementary. China's cheap labor and cheap goods complement America's relatively technology-intensive and capital-intensive products.

According to trade structure data, China's exports to the United States are concentrated in mechanical and electrical and light industrial consumer goods, such as mechanical and electrical, audio equipment and their parts, accounting for 46%, and textile raw materials and textiles account for 10%. The United States mainly exports technology and capital-intensive products to China, focusing on machinery, automobiles, aviation, optics, medical equipment and so on.

But in fact, if the two countries maintain complementary trade for a long time, it shows that the elements between the two countries have been unable to circulate for a long time, and prices have been distorted for a long time. It not only violates the economic law, but also easily leads to economic imbalance and trade conflicts.

How do you understand it?

From the perspective of the theory of the origin of trade, complementary trade accords with David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage. However, what many people ignore is that the theory of comparative advantage has a strict premise, that is, "elements can flow freely in a country, but not internationally".

If the factor markets of China and the United States are open and liberalized, China's labor price advantage will not last long. Why? When the price of labor in the United States is high, Chinese labor will be exported to the United States, which will depress local wages; in turn, American manufacturers will choose to set up factories in China to reduce costs. The latter has already happened, but to an extent it is not enough.

In the past, we have always stressed China's "demographic dividend". In fact, the demographic dividend is nothing to be proud of. On the contrary, the long-term demographic dividend shows that the lack of free flow of elements leads to the low income of workers. Over time, domestic demand is sluggish and economic growth is becoming increasingly weak. As at present, the epidemic globalization superimposed a trade war, once trade is blocked, we can only rely on domestic demand, but there are 600 million people across the country with an average monthly income of only 1000 yuan, insufficient domestic demand, low consumption, and lack of economic power.

Many people say that the United States will not give up China's market of 1.4 billion people. But in fact, China's 1.4 billion people bring only more than $150 billion in exports to the United States, while 330 million people in the United States bring China more than $470 billion in exports (2018). The main reason is that although the GDP of the United States is only 1.49 times that of China, the per capita GDP of the United States is 6 times that of China, and its consumption power is strong. From this point of view, China is more dependent on the United States than the United States on China.

Therefore, behind the huge complementary trade and balance of payments imbalance between China and the United States is the cost of abnormal trade, economic structure and wealth structure imbalance under factor market failure, as well as the potential danger of economic stall and trade conflicts.

If the two countries open the factor market, the prices of talent, capital, science and technology, information and other factors will converge, the complementary trade volume will gradually decrease, the element trade will increase, the localized production will be strengthened, and the global expansion of factors will occur at the same time.

When developing the Herschel-Olin theory, the famous economist Samuelson put forward the theory of factor price equalization. Through the research, Samuelson found that there is trade between the two countries, and if the factor market is liberalized, then the factor endowment advantages of the two countries will gradually weaken or even disappear.

The two countries have maintained their comparative advantages for a long time, complementary commodity trade is growing day by day, factor trade is limited, and the balance of payments is seriously out of balance. The reason why China and the United States have entered the crater today is that the 40-year road of trade between the two countries has actually increasingly deviated from the economic law, eventually triggering the threshold of contradiction between the two countries.

02. Sino-American conflict and the collapse of the Old order

Why can't the elements of China and the United States flow freely? Why do the two countries sit back and watch the balance of payments deteriorate?

The objective reason is the problem of international order (here mainly refers to the global economic, trade and financial order), and the subjective reason is the differences in economic systems and policies of the two countries.

Today's international order was established under the leadership of the United States after World War II. As a result of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the United States redominated the global economic, trade and financial order since the Reagan reform in 1980.

Today's global economic, trade and financial order is based on the US dollar, which is the most important international settlement and international reserve currency. But the system continues the Triffin problem of the Bretton Woods era.

The so-called Triffin problem means that the US dollar, as the world's largest international settlement currency and reserve currency, certainly needs to constantly export US dollars overseas, which will lead to a long-term deficit of the United States, which is difficult to maintain the stability of the value of the US dollar. To put it simply, the United States cannot export both dollars and goods at the same time.

To meet the demand for dollars in the international market, the United States must export dollars overseas and import goods at the same time. In this way, the US foreign trade deficit continues to widen, with a deficit with Japan in the early stage and a deficit with China in the later stage. As exports continued to decline and the industry hollowed out, the United States further strengthened its financial position with the help of the US dollar. This has led to domestic economic imbalances in the United States.

A large amount of dollars earned by China and Japan buy US financial assets (treasury bonds) and return the US dollars to the United States. This has led to a long-term imbalance in the balance of payments between China and the United States.

The essence of the Triffin problem is that the US dollar, as the sovereign currency of the United States, is also the "world currency". This reflects the contradiction between trade globalization and monetary sovereignty. The Triffin problem is in the throat, which is not only the objective factor for the extreme of Sino-US trade, but also the internal cause of the collapse of the global order.

The conflict between China and the United States is one of the manifestations of the collapse of the global order. The global order collapsed in the 2008 financial crisis. The financial crisis triggered a populist movement in Europe and the United States. American elites such as economists Krugman and Stiglitz are deeply aware that the global order is an unbalanced order of "strong dollar, strong finance, high deficit and high bubble".

Before the financial crisis, the total volume of global trade reached an all-time peak, but the trade balance also peaked. According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 1980, the global trade surplus was only 13.92 billion US dollars, and the world GDP accounted for only 0.11%. However, in 2007, the global trade surplus was 413 billion US dollars, accounting for 0.7% of the world GDP. Compared with 1980, the trade surplus increased nearly 31 times.

The unbalanced global economic and trade order has brought serious economic consequences. The financial bubble in the United States, the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry, the ecstasy of Wall Street, the fragrant grass in the rust belt, the widening gap between the rich and the poor and the rising debt ratio finally triggered the financial crisis.

In the US, between 1989 and 2007, the debt as a share of disposable income of the low-income group, which accounts for 20 per cent of the population, increased by 160 per cent, the middle-income class, who accounted for 75 per cent of the population, increased by 93 per cent, and the high-income class, who accounted for 5 per cent of the population, increased by only 18 per cent.

In my previous article, "deflation for the poor, inflation for the rich", I sorted out the "underlying logic" of the underlying problems of the world economy:

The contradiction between economic globalization and fiscal sovereignty and monetary nationalization-the contradiction between the cost of using the dollar-the paradox between the dollar and treasury bonds-the expansion of monetary policy and fiscal policy-inflation in the capital market-widening gap between the rich and the poor-insufficient effective demand-consumer market deflation-economic recession, depression …... It has formed an economic pattern of "low inflation, low growth, low interest rates, high bubbles and high debt".

This underlying logic is the problem with the global order. The US establishment not only failed to alleviate the "Triffin problem", but also took advantage of the strong position of the US dollar to continue to expand the US dollar and export capital to the world on a large scale. In this way, it aggravates the gap between the rich and the poor, and the rich chase up financial assets with the help of cheap money, triggering a financial bubble crisis, insufficient effective demand of the poor, deflation in the consumer market, and falling into low growth.

So the watershed in Sino-US relations began with the 2008 financial crisis and with the collapse of the old order. However, Chinese social elites are not aware of this.

After the financial crisis, the volume of global trade continued to decline, but the balance of payments continued to deteriorate. In 2012, the global trade surplus nearly doubled from that before the financial crisis in 2007, reaching an all-time high of US $718 billion. Its share in world GDP has further increased to 1%, and the trade imbalance has further worsened.

Obama has been in office for eight years, doing nothing, masking contradictions and unable to repair the global order. Many people wonder why Trump is so "crazy" when Obama is relatively gentle with China.

In fact, the dollar-dominated global order in the past was mainly constructed by the establishment (those in power and vested interests), Wall Street and multinational corporations. Reagan, Clinton, Obama and Hillary Clinton are the beneficiaries of this order. The global order of the past was not an order that benefited everyone. The collapse of the old order is not only the result of the imbalance of the global economy and the tearing of society, but also the challenge of the bottom society to those with vested interests.

However, Trump counterattacked Hillary Clinton to win the election in 2016, and the US establishment lost control of the White House. In order to make good on his promises to voters in the rust belt and agricultural states, Trump lifted the table as soon as he took office, retreating, shouting and threatening everywhere, smashing the old order to pieces, and a trade war between China and the United States broke out.

The Trump administration has accused China of manipulating its currency, holding down exchange rate prices and expanding exports, leading to the US trade deficit. Economist Krugman believes that the reason for China's surplus with the United States is not comparative advantage, but artificial intervention in the exchange rate.

Many people have a natural superstition about earning foreign exchange from the trade surplus, believing that huge foreign exchange reserves are a financial moat and do not have to worry about the risks of financial opening up.

In fact, countries with open finance do not need so much foreign exchange reserves. Typically, countries with freely floating exchange rates hold about 10 per cent of GDP. China's foreign exchange share is 21.2 trillion yuan (March 2020), accounting for 21.4% of GDP in 2019. At its peak, foreign exchange accounted for 83.29% of the central bank's assets and was the most important credit asset of the renminbi.

Some people say that if the central bank holds more dollars, isn't the RMB more creditworthy? At the same time, we also hold more than $1 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making us the second largest creditor in the United States.

In countries with free floating exchange rates, real estate, stocks and currencies have accepted international pricing after repeated games in the international market. on the contrary, they do not need a huge amount of foreign exchange to "guard the country", and can even use domestic treasury bonds and securities to issue currencies. In countries where the exchange rate is free to float, foreign exchange is hidden in the people and foreign exchange is used efficiently. In China, on the contrary, finance is not open, and officials accumulate huge amounts of foreign exchange through the foreign exchange settlement system to stabilize the exchange rate and RMB credit.

In addition, the Trump administration blamed China's industrial policy, financial policy, state-owned enterprises and market access barriers for blocking the flow of factor markets and leading to balance of payments imbalances.

In the past, in the era of the establishment, Wall Street and multinational corporations acquiesced in the status quo in China. In 1995, the Clinton administration launched a big debate on China policy. Is it a containment policy or an engagement policy? The consistent strategy of the Clinton administration and the pro-establishment camp is to test China step by step, and the American Chamber of Commerce believes that through large-scale economic and trade cooperation, China will also move towards a global market economy.

Many people ask that China has a 1.4 billion consumer market. Are American multinationals such as Walmart Inc willing to give up? Multinational companies in China are in cahoots with the establishment, and Trump does not represent their interests. More importantly, the "engagement policy" toward China has been negated, suppressing China has become politically correct, and the pro-establishment camp and the American Chamber of Commerce have fallen into a passive position on the China issue.

In short, in the old globalization order, China and the United States had long-term distorted factor markets, inadequate allocation of resources, long-term complementary trade, long-term trade structure and current account imbalance, widening gap between the rich and the poor, and the outbreak of the financial crisis. it triggered social contradictions in the United States, the collapse of the establishment, and the Trump administration overturned the table and hit China, which had dined with the establishment in the old order.

The collapse of the old order of globalization is a challenge posed by the losers of globalization to those with vested interests.

03. Sino-American Integration and personal Globalization

Isn't the United States targeting China?

Sino-US relations are part of the Trump administration's efforts to destroy the old order and reshape the global order. I have always disagreed with the "Thucydides trap" between China and the United States, but if the two countries fail to reach a consensus on new trade rules and cooperate in depth, the United States will certainly regard China as a strategic rival.

Today, Sino-US relations have reached a critical crossroads.

With the collapse of the old order, the abnormal trade structure between China and the United States is difficult to sustain, and the huge bilateral trade volume between China and the United States is not enough to serve as a ballast stone for Sino-US relations. The boat of friendship will turn over soon, not to mention the fact that the two countries have not yet established a real and comprehensive friendship.

A new order is being built, and the relationship between China and the United States is full of emotions, noise and interests. Both sides need to return to the ballast stone, reverse the abnormal trade structure and establish bilateral trade rules suited to the new order.

The breakthrough point is factor liberalization and globalization, that is, deepening reform and opening up, removing institutional barriers, and promoting the flow of information, talent, science and technology, finance and other elements between the two countries.

Factor liberalization and globalization will promote the transformation from complementary trade to overlapping trade between China and the United States. It is not only the key to alleviate the imbalance of balance of payments and economic structure in the old order, but also the direction of building a new order.

Take the US-Japan trade war as an example.

After World War II, the United States and Japan were complementary trade. The United States invested and set up factories in Japan, and Japan exported cheap goods to the United States.

In 1955, Japan's cotton textile exports to the United States accounted for 54.7 percent of the total imports of the same kind, causing trade friction in cotton textiles between the two countries. Since then, Japanese synthetic fibers, steel, color TVs and cars have gradually occupied the US market, which has also triggered trade frictions between the two countries.

From 1960 to 1979, Japanese exports to the United States increased from 2.164 million US dollars to 8.245727 billion US dollars, an increase of 3809.4 times. Among them, the fastest growing are watches, television sets, tape recorders, desktop computers, motorcycles, scientific instruments, metal products, synthetic fibers, iron and steel and so on.

However, after decades of trade frictions, the United States and Japan have gradually formed new trade rules and developed more stable overlapping trade.

What is overlapping trade?

For example, Japan imports cars from the United States, and the United States imports cars from Japan. Japan exports engines to the United States, and the United States exports car batteries to Japan.

Today, Japan's largest exports to the United States are engines and cars, aircraft and helicopter parts, gearboxes for motor vehicles, as well as trade in intellectual property rights, finance and other services.

Us exports to Japan are mainly grain and beverages, industrial raw materials and accessories, automobile and aircraft transportation products and accessories, as well as intellectual property rights and trade in capital services. From the changes in the trade structure, we can see that the United States and Japan are dominated by overlapping trade.

How does overlapping trade come into being? How to transform from complementary trade to overlapping trade?

Two countries with intergenerational differences are prone to complementary trade. However, if the factors of the two countries circulate freely, the comparative advantage of the original factor endowment will gradually disappear, and the complementary trade will gradually move towards overlapping trade.

The transition from complementary trade to overlapping trade mainly depends on two aspects:

First, whether to break down the factor barriers of complementary trade?

Since 1979, Japan and the United States have started a tug-of-war over automobile trade. In May 1980, Japan decided to adopt market opening measures (abolishing tariffs on spare parts and simplifying import inspection procedures). Since 1982, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Fuji heavy Industries and other Japanese automobile companies have invested in production in the United States.

After entering the US market, the production of Japanese car companies quickly rose from 60, 000 in 1983 to 1.25 million in 1989. Later, Toyota Motor Corp even beat GM to become the largest automaker in the world. In addition, Honda, Mazda, Nissan and Mitsubishi are among the top car companies, while only GM and Ford are left in the United States, and Chrysler went bankrupt in the financial crisis.

Today, Japan and the United States import cars and spare parts (engines) from each other, completely realizing overlapping trade.

In the process of internationalization and liberalization of factor market, Japanese enterprises take the initiative to seek change and invest abroad in the trade dispute between Japan and the United States. Today, half of Japan's output comes from the international market. Therefore, one of the major characteristics of overlapping trade is a wide range of factor trade, including foreign investment, technology trade, joint research and development and so on.

Second, whether the upgrading of industrial technology has been completed?

After 2000, Japanese companies have spun off their terminal business, and they have successfully transformed into upstream core components and commercial sectors. For example, Panasonic has expanded from home appliances to automotive electronics, residential energy, business solutions and other areas; Sharp has moved to health care, robotics, smart housing, cars, food, water, air safety and education.

Today, Japan has established a global competitive advantage in commercial areas such as large-scale nuclear power, new energy, hydrogen fuel cells, power grid, medical technology, energy storage technology, biotechnology, robot research and development, and high-precision software.

Therefore, the complementary trade between Japan and the United States is based on the iterative upgrading of technology-- market opening, intensified competition, factor circulation, resource sharing, and promoting technological innovation.

Only by establishing technological advantages, can we really get rid of the complementary trade dominated by cheap advantages, and can we enter into the international market and establish overlapping trade.

Why is overlapping trade in line with the trend of the new order of globalization?

Complementary trade is the initial trade model of the two countries, which is based on the comparative advantage of factor endowment. The comparative advantage of complementary trade points to a single price, which is vulnerable to exchange rate policy, economic policy and human intervention, which leads to trade friction.

Conversely, under this model, the cost of fighting a trade war is relatively low, and the target is more accurate. In complementary trade, the problem of "sticking neck" does exist, and it is easy to curb the trade "throat" of vulnerable parties.

Overlapping trade is a trade model for the sustainable development of the two countries, which is based on factor liberalization and technological comparative advantages. This kind of trade is concerned with the demand side, whether the products of both sides are favored by each other's consumers, based on the technology, design and multi-faceted advantages of their respective products, rather than a single price.

At present, many people's understanding of neck jam has fallen into a nationalist misunderstanding. General chips, nuclear power grids, engines, artificial intelligence algorithms, robots, operating systems, lithography machines, biomedicine and so on, there are so many "stuck neck" technologies that no country can master all the core technologies. It is better than the United States and Japan, and it also has the technology of "choking" in the hands of others.

In overlapping trade, the two sides "get stuck" with each other, the United States has mastered the operating system and artificial intelligence algorithms, and Japan has mastered aircraft engines and optical precision instruments. There are robots and gearboxes in the United States and so do in Japan. If they get stuck in each other's necks, they won't get stuck in each other's necks.

Globalization is the globalization of individuals, and the international market is a spontaneous order of globalization.

Overlapping trade includes not only commodity trade, but also a large number of technology, labor, capital and other factors trade, especially international capital investment, multinational companies to set up factories, joint R & D and design, as well as complex trade relations within a large number of industries. In this way, overlapping trade can reduce the singleness of complementary trade commodities and price competition, and promote omni-directional cooperation, diversification and mutual benefit, deep penetration and high bundling.

Overlapping trade is the real globalization, which connects people with different personalities and skin colors just like the human neural network. Different industries, companies and consumers trade with each other because of completely different preferences, which is not determined by a single price index. It is difficult for the will and power of the state to infiltrate the complex trade network made up of different enterprises, products and consumer preferences, and the will of political strongmen is submerged in the sea of globalization.

In the old order of globalization, the factor markets of China and the United States were not fully opened up, and the economy and trade between the two countries did not benefit everyone. From the perspective of the "30-0" trade rules and the reform of the World Trade Organization, the free flow of information, talents, capital, and science and technology in "zero tariffs, zero barriers, and zero subsidies" is a major trend.

Therefore, the free flow of elements between China and the United States promotes the transformation of complementary trade between the two countries to overlapping trade, and alleviates the imbalance in the balance of payments and economic structure between China and the United States under the old order, which is in line with the general trend of the new order. Overlapping trade is the sustainable trade structure and the ballast stone of China and the United States.

Factor liberalization is the inevitable trend of globalization. From complementary trade to overlapping trade is a hurdle in the history of Sino-US trade and the transformation of China's trade and economic structure.

With the collapse of the old order, the fragility of the relationship between the two countries and the imbalance of globalization are hidden behind the huge trade. A new order is being built, and both sides need to beware of inciting Sino-US relations under the banner of nationalism in order to hinder reform and opening up and defend vested interests.

As Roman Roland repeatedly appealed to people before the outbreak of the war: "this is an era that needs to be vigilant, and more and more vigilant." Those who stir up hatred, by their despicable nature, are fiercer and more aggressive than those who are good at reconciliation, and there are material interests hidden behind them. "