In 2025, China's automobile exports will exhibit the core characteristics of 'increased volume and price, and structural optimization.' The total export volume of domestically produced vehicles by automakers for the year will reach 7.1 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 21%, maintaining the same growth rate as in 2024, and continuing to hold the position as the world's largest automobile exporter, reflecting a significant increase in the added value of exported vehicles.
In 2025, the structure of China's automobile export enterprises will show notable optimization, with increased concentration among leading companies, the rise of independent passenger vehicle manufacturers, and passenger vehicle enterprises becoming the core growth drivers. The integrated advantages of the industrial chain will become further prominent. In the future, with the continuous improvement of overseas production capacity layout, ongoing advancements in technology research and development, and the promotion of market diversification strategies, China's automobile exports are expected to maintain growth momentum. However, attention must also be paid to challenges such as overseas trade barriers, supply chain risks, and intensified global market competition. It is recommended that companies increase investment in core technology R&D, optimize export products, strengthen localized production and services, and further enhance their influence in the global industrial chain. At the same time, stronger industry collaboration is needed to jointly address external risks and promote high-quality development of China's automobile exports.
1. General Situation of Automobile Exports
In 2025, China's automobile exports will exhibit the core characteristics of 'increased volume and price, and structural optimization.' The total export volume of domestically produced vehicles by automakers for the year will reach 7.1 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 21%, maintaining the same growth rate as in 2024, and continuing to hold the position as the world's largest automobile exporter, reflecting a significant increase in the added value of exported vehicles.
In terms of细分 markets, passenger vehicles will become the core engine of export growth, far surpassing the growth rate of buses. The main export destinations will remain Europe, ASEAN, and South America, with exports to countries along the Belt and Road maintaining a favorable share, demonstrating significant achievements in market diversification. The automobile export trend in 2025 will be 'stable at first, then high,' with steady growth in the first three quarters and strong export growth in the fourth quarter despite domestic sluggishness, showcasing the industry’s resilience.
2. Self-reliance Strengthens in Automobile Exports, Joint Ventures Improve
In 2025, there will be significant changes in the structure of China's automobile export enterprises, with core trends being 'increased concentration among leading companies, the rise of private automakers, and contraction of foreign automakers’ market share.' Industry resources will further concentrate on leading enterprises with core technologies and globalized layout capabilities. Independent automakers will perform particularly well, with their export share increasing from 22% in 2024 to 24% in 2025, becoming the main driver of export growth. Joint venture automakers' export performance will continue to improve, with some joint ventures becoming global production bases. Foreign automakers' share of exports from their Chinese production bases will decline from 38% in 2022 to 27% in 2025, significantly affected by adjustments in their global production capacity and competition from local brands.
From the perspective of enterprise types, the proportion of new energy vehicle (NEV) companies in export enterprises has significantly increased. Companies with complete industrial chain advantages will be more competitive, with the integrated advantages of the industrial chain continuing to stand out.
3. Analysis of Export Performance by Major Automotive Groups
In 2025, the export performance of major automotive groups in China will show clear differentiation, with leading groups playing a prominent guiding role. Among them, BYD will rank first in the industry with 1.05 million NEV exports, especially performing well in high-end markets such as Europe and Japan. SAIC Motor will export 950,000 vehicles, relying on its joint venture brands like SAIC-GM and its own brands Roewe and MG, achieving coordinated development of fuel vehicles and NEVs, and maintaining a leading position in the ASEAN and South American markets.
Great Wall Motors and Geely Auto have become significant contributors to export growth. GAC Group has focused on the Middle East and African markets, with strong export performance of its new energy vehicle models; Great Wall Motors has targeted the European market, maintaining robust growth; Geely Auto, leveraging brands such as Zeekr and Geometry, achieved breakthroughs in the Southeast Asian market, doubling its export volume compared to the previous year.
Notably, some small and medium-sized automotive groups have achieved breakthroughs through differentiated positioning, concentrating on niche sectors such as commercial vehicles and special-purpose vehicles. Their export growth rates far exceed the industry average, but their overall market share remains relatively low, with the industry's 'Matthew Effect' continuing to intensify.
4. Analysis of Vehicle Manufacturer Exports
In 2025, the export performance of different types of vehicle manufacturers will diverge, with leading companies showing strong results. In terms of specific segments, new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers stand out, with BYD, Leapmotor, and XPeng achieving exceptionally high year-on-year export growth.
The export growth of traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers has slowed but remains substantial. Companies like SAIC Passenger Vehicles and Changan Automobile have maintained their market share through model upgrades, with their exported models primarily concentrated in the economy sedan and SUV categories, focusing on emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa. Commercial vehicle manufacturers have demonstrated steady export performance, with Sinotruk and Foton Motor ranking among the global leaders in heavy-duty and light-duty truck exports.
In terms of competitiveness, independent R&D capabilities have become a core pillar for vehicle manufacturers' exports, significantly enhancing product competitiveness. Additionally, companies' global service capabilities have continued to strengthen, with a substantial increase in the number of overseas after-sales service outlets, effectively improving customer satisfaction abroad.
This article is reproduced from the WeChat Official Account “Cui Dongshu”; Edited by Wenwen from Zhitong Finance.
