Bitcoin is gradually showing signs of transitioning from short-term trading opportunities to a medium-term upward trend.
After experiencing six months of repeated fluctuations and market skepticism, Bitcoin is gradually showing signs of transitioning from short-term trading opportunities to a mid-term upward trend. Multiple market signals indicate that crypto assets are brewing a more sustainable recovery rally.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is hovering near $96,000, having rebounded approximately 15% from its phase low in November last year. Unlike previous fleeting rebounds, this round of increase is primarily supported by improvements in technical structure rather than being solely driven by sentiment or momentum. The price has regained key moving averages, with trend lines starting to repair upwards, and each pullback is met with relatively stable buying support. Despite some short-term volatility, the overall technical pattern suggests a significantly stronger foundation for this rally.
In the past few months, many analysts attributed the weak performance of cryptocurrencies to the relative strength of traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, arguing that crypto assets could only catch a breather once precious metals retreated. However, market dynamics do not always strictly adhere to 'mean reversion.' Recently, Bitcoin and other mainstream tokens have gradually shown independent momentum, indicating that their rise is not merely the result of fund rotation between different asset classes.
In other words, Bitcoin and precious metals do not necessarily move inversely; there is potential for both asset classes to rise simultaneously. Even if precious metals experience a temporary pullback, it may bring new incremental funds into the crypto market.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, market analysis indicates that, from a price rhythm perspective, Bitcoin may undergo short-term consolidation as it approaches the important psychological level of $100,000, but the overall momentum remains clear. Notably, despite ongoing heated discussions about Bitcoin, some ETFs tracking Bitcoin have performed relatively flat over the past year, with prices still more than 20% below their recent 52-week highs. However, these products have recently shown noticeable 'recovery,' rising about 8% in the past week and on track to record the first consecutive three-week gain in half a year.
From a technical perspective, the one-year daily chart of Bitcoin-related ETFs is gradually improving. In early January this year, the fund regained its 21-day exponential moving average, followed by a breakout above the 50-day simple moving average. More notably, even during the approximately 35% deep correction between October and November last year, the slope of its 200-day moving average did not weaken significantly, indicating persistent mid-to-long-term structural resilience. The multiple doji patterns near key integer levels in December last year were also considered signals of a bottoming process. After the recent price breakout from an ascending triangle pattern, market expectations for further short-term upside have noticeably increased.
The performance of Ethereum-related ETFs is also beginning to show signs of improvement. This fund experienced significant corrections in the fourth quarter of last year and remains over 30% below its 52-week high. Its weekly performance had been volatile in recent periods. However, after forming a typical bullish 'morning star' pattern in late November last year, downside risks did not expand further, and it completed an effective retest of a prior bullish flag breakout. Recently, the price reclaimed the 21-day and 50-day moving averages and broke out of a consolidation range on higher volume. If this breakout continues, the technical setup suggests further upside potential in the second quarter, and as long as the price stays above key support levels, the medium-term bullish thesis remains intact.
By comparison, Solana-related ETFs remain the most volatile. Over the past three months, the fund has fallen nearly 30%, but its performance strengthened entering 2026, with year-to-date gains of about 15%. Although it remains far from its 52-week high, it has formed a potential double-bottom structure at lower levels technically. Previously, this fund weakened earlier in September last year, leading the peak-and-decline cycles of Bitcoin- and Ethereum-related products. Market attention has now shifted towards upside potential, and if the price can effectively break above the key neckline, its technical outlook will improve significantly, potentially opening up greater rebound potential.
Overall, whether it is Bitcoin or mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum and Solana, the technical charts of their related products are quietly improving. Historical experience shows that true trend reversals often begin before they are widely recognized. When the market remains skeptical but structures start to improve, it is often the stage where trends gradually take shape.
