①Analysts believe that the trajectory of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be replicating the structural pattern of gold prior to its historic surge in 2025; ②This similarity suggests that the leading cryptocurrency might be brewing a parabolic rise.
Analysts believe that Bitcoin $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ may be following the structural pattern of gold's historic surge in 2025, as reflected in the trajectory of its exchange-traded fund (ETF). This similarity suggests that the leading cryptocurrency could be poised for a parabolic rise.
Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated in a podcast: "What is happening with Bitcoin is exactly the same as what happened with gold back then."
He pointed out that after Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia in 2022, central banks began "panic-buying gold," thereby altering the structure of the gold market.
Since 2022, central banks' annual demand for gold has surged from about 400 tons to over 1,000 tons. This sustained buying absorbed market supply over several years, eventually triggering a price explosion: gold ended 2022 with a decline but rose 13% in 2023, 27% in 2024, and soared nearly 65% in 2025.
"Ultimately, what gold tells you is that sellers will run out of 'ammunition,' and that's when prices enter a parabolic rise," said Hougan.
Hougan believes that Bitcoin ETFs are exhibiting the same pattern, with continuous buying exceeding 100% of new supply since their launch.
He said: "So I do think that gold has already shown us what is going to happen... If buyer demand persists, we will see that parabolic peak."
This "gold first, Bitcoin follows" pattern has been previously observed. Lawrence Lepard, co-founder of Equity Management Associates, noted: "Gold tends to move first, and Bitcoin follows, subsequently outperforming."
Differences Remain
Other analysts agree with this view on macro logic — sustained structural buying will absorb selling pressure — but they also caution that Bitcoin's performance will still be influenced by its inherent volatility and driving factors.
Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, stated, "From a macro perspective, the sustained structural buying absorbing market selling pressure is indeed a core characteristic of any scarce asset entering a long-term bull market."
However, Sun also highlighted key differences in market structure between Bitcoin and gold.
For gold, buyers are typically central banks and sovereign wealth funds seeking to hedge against fiat currency credit risk, with low leverage and long investment horizons. In contrast, while institutional investors dominate Bitcoin ETF purchases, they still regard it as a risky asset, resulting in 'significantly higher' implied leverage and trading activity in the market.
"Due to these differences in capital attributes, Bitcoin's volatility is naturally higher than that of gold," Sun explained. "Therefore, even if both are in long-term bull markets, their price trajectories may not necessarily align."
Another important distinction lies in sensitivity to the macro environment.
Gold's recent bull market has been primarily driven by concerns over the credibility of the US dollar and geopolitical factors. Sun noted that Bitcoin 'remains highly dependent on the macro liquidity environment,' meaning that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a tightening policy, it could introduce volatility, potentially disrupting a smooth parabolic upward trend.
Editor/Doris
