Cui Dongshu stated that the macroeconomy will maintain robust growth in 2025, and driven by national policies to promote consumption, the automotive market will experience strong growth. The overall performance of the national automotive market in 2025 is expected to be strong, with significant recovery in both the truck and bus markets.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Association, mentioned in the 'Analysis of the Trend of Automobile Sub-Market and Manufacturers' Competitive Performance in December 2025' that the macro-economy maintained robust growth in 2025. Driven by national policies promoting consumption, the automobile market experienced strong growth. The overall performance of the national automobile market in 2025 was relatively strong, with significant recovery in the truck and bus markets. Due to the exceptionally strong policy support last year, this year witnessed a notable contraction in policy measures. Retail sales in December 2024 were significantly stronger than wholesale, leading to negative retail growth for passenger vehicles in December 2025. However, due to export and inventory increases, manufacturers' sales growth remained relatively good in December. New energy vehicles performed strongly, and the automotive export market continued to strengthen, but large fluctuations in manufacturers' inventories indicated considerable industry pressure. The commercial vehicle market in 2025 showed structural growth driven by equipment renewal subsidies, with high subsidies accelerating the electrification of logistics and transportation, resulting in higher activity levels in the commercial vehicle sector.
1. Divergent Trends in Passenger and Commercial Vehicles in 2025
In recent years, the divergence between passenger and commercial vehicles has become evident. With the continuous decline in real estate, commercial vehicles have weakened while passenger vehicle consumption has improved. In 2025, the market benefited from policy factors, with passenger vehicle growth at 9%, which was relatively favorable. Commercial vehicles gained momentum from electrification, with new energy commercial vehicles showing significantly stronger performance compared to last year. The bus market, including mini-buses, achieved robust growth. The trade-in policy effectively boosted passenger vehicle sales, especially during the initial phase of policy implementation. Recently, most subsidies have been suspended, and the industry's comprehensive efforts to address internal competition have made positive progress, though the overall trend of the auto market has slowed down.
2. Cooling of the Automobile Market in 2025
From January to December 2025, total cumulative automobile sales reached 34.4 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%. Automobile sales in December totaled 3.23 million units, representing an 8% year-over-year decrease. This year’s subsidy-driven policies led to high retail growth in the first half, while wholesale growth was slightly slower. Retail growth weakened from July to December, but manufacturers' sales remained relatively strong.
3. Significant Divergence in Performance Among Leading Automakers
Comparing the chart from 2021 above, certain automakers showed strong performance in 2022, but there was significant divergence in industry growth rates. The pandemic at the beginning of 2022 placed considerable pressure on traditional automakers, compounded by the impact of the new energy transition. State-owned conglomerates performed unevenly, with GAC and Chery demonstrating excellent results—Chery performing well in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments. Northern automakers such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC all faced challenges.
At the beginning of 2023, the promotion of new energy vehicles contributed to the divergence in the auto market trends. The three major state-owned enterprises showed divergent performances, with some falling behind. BYD and other new energy companies performed well, while Chery and Tesla exhibited relatively strong results this year. Second-tier automakers showed mixed performances, as the transition between old and new drivers and the sustained losses in new energy vehicles caused significant downturns among small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in self-owned brands.
The lineup of automotive groups underwent comprehensive changes in 2024. BYD introduced new products with price reductions and increased volume, supported by strong demand for passenger vehicles and contributions from overseas markets, allowing Chery, Geely Auto, and Dongfeng to perform well. Meanwhile, SAIC continued to experience a sharp decline. Growth rates for BYD and Tesla in the new energy vehicle segment diverged.
The landscape of automobile manufacturers underwent significant changes, with the industry showing sharp divergence in growth rates. Starting in 2025, private enterprises began to replace state-owned enterprises as the mainstay of the industry. Companies like Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall maintained high growth rates, and this phenomenon appears to have sustainability. SAIC and Dongfeng performed strongly in December 2025, showing improved growth.
The manufacturer landscape in the automobile market in 2025 remained relatively stable, with a significant improvement in the position of self-owned brands. Total manufacturer sales in December weakened month-over-month as they gathered strength to achieve a strong start to the new year. Some manufacturers, such as SAIC and BYD, showed relatively stable performances compared to November. Geely, Dongfeng, and Changan performed strongly on a year-over-year basis, while some manufacturers, like GAC, adjusted their December sales significantly compared to the previous year.
4. Production and Sales Trends of Narrowly Defined Passenger Vehicle Enterprises
From January to December 2025, cumulative narrow-sense passenger vehicle sales totaled 29.56 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%. Narrow-sense passenger vehicle sales in December amounted to 2.79 million units, representing a 9% year-over-year decrease. In recent years, technological innovation in new energy vehicles and increasing competitiveness of new models have grown, while the introduction of fuel vehicle models has been sluggish. After the Spring Festival in 2025, new energy vehicles grew rapidly, and the market maintained a robust development rate of 14% from May to September. Despite the higher base in December, passenger vehicle growth remained strong.
Self-owned passenger vehicle manufacturers took the lead comprehensively in 2025. Mainstream manufacturers performed weakly overall in December, while self-owned brands showed exceptional strength. Joint venture manufacturers had weaker performance in December. BYD led the way, followed by Geely Auto in second place and Chery maintaining third place in December. The scale of the top three is increasingly converging. Joint ventures like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen showed relatively stable performance.
The main camp of passenger vehicle manufacturers rapidly differentiated, with manufacturers focused on new energy vehicles showing stronger performance. Domestic brands exhibited particularly evident differentiation.
Passenger vehicle retail sales showed clear divergence in December. Some key companies, such as Geely, demonstrated steady performance, while most experienced significant declines.
Production and sales trends of new energy passenger vehicle enterprises
In December 2025, total new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 13.4 million units, up 3% year-over-year. New energy passenger vehicle sales in 2024 totaled 10.9 million units, showing a robust growth trend of 41%. Cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to December 2025 amounted to 12.81 million units, marking an 18% year-over-year increase. Policies such as scrappage updates, price reductions by manufacturers, and new model launches drove better growth in the first half of 2025, while exports contributed to growth in the second half.
The competitive landscape among new energy vehicle manufacturers in 2025 remains relatively stable, with leading companies experiencing rapid growth and second-tier firms gradually accelerating their expansion. Tesla, Seres, and Xiaomi demonstrated strong performance in December, while Geely Auto and BYD showed slower progress during the same period. The national auto market has undergone significant differentiation, with large variations in growth rates between provinces and among manufacturers.
6. Production and Sales Trends of Traditional Power Passenger Vehicle Enterprises
In 2023, traditional fuel-powered passenger vehicle sales amounted to 16.66 million units, remaining nearly flat compared to the same period in 2022; in 2024, traditional passenger vehicle sales reached 14.95 million units, representing a 10% year-over-year decline; from January to December 2025, total sales were 10.94 million units, marking a 9% year-over-year decrease, including a 31% drop in December, reflecting substantial year-end downward pressure.
Conventional passenger vehicles maintained positive growth from June to September, but declines accelerated after October. Trade-in incentives had a favorable impact on fuel vehicles, but the pricing pressure from new energy vehicles continued to manifest. It is hoped that traditional vehicles can stabilize and regain growth momentum.
The landscape of conventional power passenger vehicle joint ventures has gradually shifted, with domestic brands gaining prominence. Chery, Geely Auto, Great Wall, and the top three joint ventures remain strong players in the market. FAW-Volkswagen continues to lead among joint ventures, while domestic brands' advantage in fuel vehicles compared to joint ventures is not particularly notable. The technological foundation of joint ventures in fuel vehicles remains exceptionally robust.
7. Production and Sales Classification Trends of Bus Manufacturers
In 2023, cumulative annual bus sales by manufacturers totaled 750,000 units, with a 3% growth rate; in 2024, cumulative bus sales reached 800,000 units, up 6%; from January to December 2025, cumulative bus sales amounted to 920,000 units, growing by 15%. However, December bus sales totaled 85,000 units, down 12% year-over-year, driven significantly by new energy logistics vehicles.
The performance of the bus sector was relatively robust in 2025, with leading manufacturers achieving significant sales growth. August to September saw strong month-over-month increases, while in December, Changan's sales surged by 33% month-over-month, Wuling's dropped by 35%, and SAIC Maxus fell by 31%. These fluctuations primarily reflected demand changes for light and micro logistics vans. In 2025, commercial vehicles from Wuling, Changan, Maxus, and Xinyuan performed well, supported by the recovery of new energy micro-vans, as tax incentive policies continued to have a strong stimulating effect.
8. Production and Sales Classification Trends of Truck Manufacturers
In 2023, cumulative truck sales totaled 3.54 million units, growing by 19%; in 2024, cumulative truck sales reached 3.35 million units, declining by 3%; from January to December 2025, cumulative truck sales amounted to 3.72 million units, showing an 11% increase. December truck sales reached 360,000 units, a 17% year-over-year rise.
In 2025, there was a clear divergence among key truck manufacturers, with leading companies performing strongly. Wuling and Changan experienced explosive year-over-year growth in December compared to the same month last year, while Shacman, JAC, and Jiangling’s light trucks also showed solid year-over-year performance in December.
Heavy truck sales surged dramatically in 2025, with battery electric heavy trucks showing particularly strong performance. FAW, Shacman, and Sinotruk achieved robust growth, maintaining a relatively stable industry structure.
