According to the “Notice Letter on the Guangzhou Baiyun Airport Phase III Expansion Project” issued by Airport Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, recently, the Guangzhou Baiyun Airport Phase III expansion project with the Airport Group as the main applicant was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission.
The planned throughput for 2030 is 120 million, helpingGreater Bay Areaconstruction. According to the newly revised master plan,Baiyun AirportThe plan is based on the recent 775,000 aircraft take-off and landing in 2030, 120 million passengers (that is, the current design capacity is 30 million), the cargo and mail throughput of 3.8 million tons, the terminal will take off and land 870,000 aircraft in 2045, with a passenger throughput of 140 million passengers, and a cargo and mail throughput of 6 million tons.
Investment strategy: The impact of the epidemic will not change long-term business trends. The third phase of expansion will draw up a blueprint for the company's long-term growth. In the short term, with the control of the domestic epidemic, the recovery of domestic business at Baiyun Airport has accelerated, and international flights have grown in an orderly manner along with breakthroughs in the “Five Ones” policy; the implementation of capital injections by major shareholders has effectively relieved recent financial pressure on listed companies. In the medium term, along with the advancement of the Hainan duty-free policy, the duty-free business at Baiyun Airport may become the port with the highest net interest rate in the China Exemption System, and is expected to receive further resource incentives and cost investment. Baiyun Airport's duty-free sales in 2019 were only 1.9 billion yuan. In the future, duty-free price advantages, category expansion, and sales limits are expected to open up further. At the same time, Baiyun Airport's punctuality rate has exceeded 80% for 16 consecutive months. The peak hour 76+2 is only the beginning. The next 3-5 years will still be a phase of rapid release and high growth in international routes. Therefore, Baiyun Airport's mid-term logic is still that two-wheel drive for aviation and non-aviation businesses will increase ROE. In the long run, the third phase of the expansion project has opened up a bottleneck in the airport's long-term production capacity and guaranteed the long-term growth and profitability of listed companies. We adjusted the 2020-2022 Baiyun Airport EPS to 0.13, 0.33, and 0.58 yuan, corresponding to the July 17 PE share price of 115, 45, and 26 times, respectively, to maintain the “prudent increase” rating.
Risk warning: Uncertainty in policy implementation, imbalances between industry supply and demand, macroeconomic growth stalled, international trade frictions escalated, air crashes, terrorist attacks, wars, and disease outbreaks.