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Weekend Reading | All in Musk? By 2026, Everyone Will Be 'Cathie Wood.'

Giant Tide WAVE ·  Jan 18 11:33

In the just-concluded year of 2025, Cathie Wood, once heavily criticized, made a remarkable comeback. The funds she manages$ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$have surged by 35.5% over the past year, nearly doubling the gains of$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$.

While the market marvels at her performance, she shows no signs of slowing down, initiating her routine active portfolio adjustments at the start of the new year.

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She has consistently adhered to her strategy of 'selling interim results and buying the seeds of the future,' taking profits while swiftly redirecting resources to what she believes are more promising growth stocks, maintaining her signature all-in approach.

The most notable feature of this round of portfolio adjustments is the large-scale and systematic increase in holdings of gene-editing and genomics companies, spanning gene therapies, sequencing tools, and synthetic DNA.$ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$She has almost fully covered the entire industrial chain of this cutting-edge field.

Of course, artificial intelligence remains at the core of her portfolio; however, the focus of her increased positions has shifted from broad AI concepts to more specific data-layer application platforms and next-generation computing platforms, with investment logic placing greater emphasis on AI commercialization.

Her moves at the beginning of 2026 clearly signal that she will continue to bet on technology companies that have the potential to reshape the paradigms of future health, lifestyle, and industry, maintaining her distinctive style of pursuing high-growth potential.

This extremely aggressive style, which disregards drawdown control and sometimes appears to be at odds with the broader market, has led to her being jokingly referred to as 'Big Leek.'

However, considering the current extreme structural market dynamics driven by technology and led by growth sectors in both the A-share and U.S. stock markets, especially given the anticipated sustained boom in technology-driven industries in the A-share market, an increasing number of investors are likely to adopt similarly or even more aggressive strategies.

01 Fantasy

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Undoubtedly, Tesla is the largest holding in Sister Wood's portfolio. Last June, when she publicly announced her intention to increase her stake in the company, she directly referred to Tesla as 'the largest artificial intelligence project on Earth.'

Returning to 2016, when she began investing in Tesla, the market’s acceptance of electric vehicles was far less than it is today. Traditional automakers were still in观望mode, but Sister Wood had already made up her mind — Tesla is not just an automobile company; it is the leader of the electric vehicle revolution and will completely颠覆the traditional automotive industry.

As the only publicly listed independent pure electric vehicle manufacturer at the time, Tesla represented the future direction of mobility.

Tesla Stock Performance (from January 2016 to Present)
Tesla Stock Performance (from January 2016 to Present)

In 2020,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Tesla's stock price experienced a stunning surge, with gains exceeding 70% within the first two months of the year. The full-year increase reached an astonishing 743%. That year marked a pivotal turning point for Tesla and served as a crucial test of Sister Wood’s investment strategy.

With the official start of production at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, its annual electric vehicle deliveries approached 500,000 units, and the company achieved its first-ever full-year profitability (net profit of $721 million). This significantly boosted investor confidence and greatly raised expectations for the future penetration rate of electric vehicles.

On December 21, 2020, Tesla was officially included$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$This event had a significant impact on Tesla's own development, market position, and the capital markets at the time.

At the time, Tesla ranked fifth among the index constituents with an initial weighting of 1.69%, marking its transformation from a high-volatility star stock or concept stock to one of the blue-chip stocks at the core of the U.S. economy. However, this also triggered valuation disputes over the exhaustion of positive catalysts and subsequently caused certain downward pressure.

Cathie Wood made the wise decision to reduce her Tesla holdings multiple times when the stock price was at its peak in 2021, engaging in swing trading. Her assessment of Tesla also underwent a subtle shift, referring to it as an "embodiment of an artificial intelligence project," extending its investment logic from vehicle sales to future mobility services.

In June 2025, during an interview, Cathie Wood elaborated on her new perspective regarding Tesla—by 2030, the autonomous taxi network will account for 90% of Tesla's valuation, with its stock price potentially reaching $2,600.

Looking back now at the inclusion in the S&P 500 Index in 2020, the stable institutional funding it brought actually provided crucial capital support for Tesla’s transition towards the more ambitious and long-term capital-intensive goal of becoming a 'future mobility service' provider.

Elon Musk’s business empire extends far beyond Tesla and electric vehicles. From commercial spaceflight to humanoid robots, from brain-computer interfaces to renewable energy storage, these are all fields with immense disruptive potential for the future society.

Currently, all these projects are proceeding as planned. Among them, Neuralink is preparing to initiate large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices this year; the Optimus robot is expected to ramp up production after March, with projected annual deliveries ranging between 60,000 and 80,000 units. Musk predicts that 80% of Tesla’s market value will be contributed by Optimus in the future.

It can be said that prior to SpaceX’s public listing, Tesla has been the most direct channel for investors to access Musk’s series of disruptive innovation concepts, serving as the intersection of investments in robotics, energy storage, and AI—and this is a key reason why Cathie Wood has consistently held a significant stake in Tesla.

02 Disruption

Unlike tech visionaries like Musk, who talk about 'dying on Mars,' Cathie Wood appears more like an 'ordinary' investor who simply seeks to align with the trends of the times while achieving wealth appreciation.

In an investment outlook last year, Ms. Wood clearly stated that all her investment decisions for the next five years are based on a grand framework of how the world operates.

She believes that humanity is at the starting point of the largest wave of technological disruption in history. This wave is jointly driven by five interconnected and mutually reinforcing disruptive innovation platforms: artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multi-omics sequencing.

Ms. Wood argues that these fields are currently converging and exploding in influence, potentially surpassing the rapid advancements seen in the early 20th century with the simultaneous emergence of the telephone, electricity, and the internal combustion engine. This convergence could even push global real GDP growth to a historic high of 7%.

Artificial intelligence is undoubtedly the core and brain of this revolution, ultimately forming a winner-takes-all market where Wright's Law will likely prove more universally applicable than Moore's Law.

Robotics serves as the physical embodiment of AI, extending intelligence from the virtual world into the physical world, directly replacing or augmenting human labor. Ms. Wood asserts that humanoid robots will be 'the largest component of all embodied AI opportunities,' potentially creating a massive market worth $26 trillion by 2030-2040.

Energy storage is the power cornerstone of this revolution, with breakthroughs ranging from sodium-ion batteries to compressed air energy storage. These innovations aim to build a safe and efficient new power system, providing stable energy support for AI and robotic networks operating around the clock.

Blockchain technology is responsible for constructing the trust foundation of the digital age. Through its distributed and tamper-proof characteristics, it offers entirely new solutions for secure data flow, fair collaboration ecosystems, and high-frequency micro-payments, serving as the underlying rule on which the digital economy operates.

Multi-omics sequencing acts as a precision detector for solving life science challenges, capable of unraveling the mysteries of diseases and aging with unprecedented accuracy. Combined with AI, it has the potential to halve the time required for new drug development.

If these five society-disrupting fields achieve success, some winners from the past era are inevitably going to be disrupted as well. Ms. Wood points out that Apple lacks a clear direction in its AI strategy, missing the opportunity to define the next generation of mobile devices.

This judgment has already been$Apple (AAPL.US)$The stock price increase over the past two years has been partially validated.

As an extremely optimistic believer in technology, Ms. Wood believes that the moment of societal paradigm shift is approaching rapidly, bringing with it a wealth of opportunities. However, she also admitted, 'What worries me is that some people may be left behind by these new technologies and, for various reasons, may be unwilling to adapt.'

‘If you are on the wrong side of the transformative wave, the consequences will be catastrophic. But if you can position yourself correctly, the opportunities for investment and employment will be enormous.’

A-share investors who have experienced this current bull market likely now have a deeper understanding of Ms. Wood’s statement.

03 Surge

The debate over when the A-share market should start boosting consumer stocks and blue-chip stocks in this bull run seems never-ending, but reality continues to pour cold water on so-called value investors.

By the first trading week of 2026, sectors representing ‘future industries’—such as commercial aerospace, next-generation artificial intelligence, and brain-computer interfaces—were experiencing astonishing surges in both the U.S. and A-share markets, disregarding valuation and profitability constraints.

The core narrative of these industries has completely broken away from traditional investment rules, evolving into a pricing model akin to science fiction, with the market swiftly transitioning from valuation recovery to frenzied bets on long-term possibilities.

This frenzy began with the listing of Moore Threads, an AI chip company still operating at a loss, which debuted on the STAR Market with a staggering 468% surge on its first day. Five days later, its cumulative increase reached 723%, pushing its market value beyond 440 billion yuan. It acted as a spark thrown onto dry tinder, igniting boundless imagination for ‘hardcore technology’ in both primary and secondary markets.

This fervor continued to burn fiercely into early 2026—commercial aerospace stocks like Hangtu Technologies and Shanghai Hanxun soared despite short-term earnings; major AI model companies such as Zhipu AI and MiniMax went public consecutively and continued their dramatic rises, with any tech firm failing to reach a market cap of 100 billion yuan not even considered a true technology company.

The valuation framework for future-oriented technology stocks has completely departed from the traditional revenue and profitability structure. It is sufficient to base valuations on the possibility of these companies defining the rules of future industries, aligning them with the valuations of the largest enterprises in related or similar fields.

A substantial amount of capital, whether actively or passively, has joined this frenzy, with market consensus highly focused on two key investment themes: 'AI+' and 'self-reliance and controllability.'

In this typical structural bull market, investors heavily weighted in technology stocks have a significantly higher probability of profit compared to other sectors. Investors with assets exceeding 500,000 yuan—referred to as affluent high-net-worth clients by brokers and eligible to access the STAR Market—consistently and stably outperform retail investors with assets of only tens of thousands of yuan.

Data shows that since September 2025, less than 35% of small and medium-sized accounts with asset sizes below 500,000 yuan have recorded positive returns. This indicates that most ordinary investors did not benefit from the tech stock rally but instead became the stepping stones for market volatility gains.

Why hasn't this bull market, unlike the one in 2014, turned most market participants' accounts red?

A key variable lies in the fact that AI has disrupted the rules of the stock market game before fully transforming social productivity. The prevalence of algorithmic trading and quantitative strategies has fragmented market volatility into micro-battles measured in milliseconds.

The market's responsiveness to 'narratives' and its pricing elasticity have been amplified to extremes, while fundamental factors have largely failed in the short to medium term. 'Being right on direction but losing money' has become commonplace. The widespread expectation among institutional analysts for 'style balance' and 'rotation between high and low' this year appears rather absurd in the face of the market's opening fervor.

This may reveal a deeper logic: under the grand narrative of an approaching technological singularity, when developing new productive forces becomes the absolute political and economic priority, capital's choices are unprecedentedly unified. They no longer settle for dividing profits from the existing world but go all-in on an undefined incremental future.

Moreover, a large number of market participants, including Musk, predict that the value of ordinary goods will continue to decline.

Caught in the tide, an increasing number of ordinary people have no choice but to follow Cathie Wood’s example, going all-in on the hardcore future envisioned by figures like Musk, and paying for this vision with real money, as this seems to be the only way to avoid the fear of missing out on a bull market.

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Editor/Melody

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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