Original title: GF Securities Co., LTD.-- Investment Strategy report of the Real Estate Industry: reasonable liquidity and abundant sales volume and price rise Source: China Finance Online Co Ltd
Summary of the policy environment: liquidity is maintained reasonably and abundant, and regulation and control of hot cities are tightened. In June, the central monetary policy stated that it insisted on maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity. At the local level, local support policies represented by settlement relaxation and talent subsidies continued to land, while in the process of recovery, housing prices in some hot areas (Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Shenzhen) rose rapidly, and the margin of regulation and control was tightened.
Transaction market summary: sales maintenance improvement. The area of commercial housing sales across the country rose 2.1% in June from a year earlier. After recovering at a high speed of 10% in May, it was able to maintain positive growth in June, and the situation was better. In June, the volume and price of commercial housing across the country showed a rising trend, which was consistent with the sales of the top 100 housing enterprises. It is worth noting that house prices rose rapidly in June, with the Bureau of Statistics rising 1.9% month-on-month (an average monthly increase of 0.3% in 19 years), and housing prices in 100 cities of the Central finger Institute increased by 0.5% month-on-month (0.3% per month in 19 years), which is also an important reason for the upgrading of regulation and control in some hot cities. In the context of housing speculation, housing prices are less likely to rise sharply, while the recovery is more likely to show a moderate upward trend, superimposed by housing enterprises in the second half of the year to push the market or further increase, the short-term trend of both volume and price may continue.
Summary of the land market: the land market maintains a high heat. In June, the amount and price of land transfer gold rose 31% compared with the same period last year, and the absolute amount of the transfer fee exceeded 600 billion yuan, the second monthly transfer fee since 2008.A high month. From the point of view of the sub-line, the transfer fee in first-tier cities decreased by 16% compared with the same period last year, but the transaction area still increased by 53%. The volume and prices of second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities rose, and the recovery of third-and fourth-tier cities was stronger.
Summary of development investment: investment has increased steadily, and the growth rate of new construction has expanded. In June, investment increased by 8.5% over the same period last year, driving the cumulative growth rate of investment for the whole year to become positive. The area of new construction increased significantly by 8.9% over the same period last year, and real estate enterprises are willing to start work.
Capital environmentSummary: funds have improved significantly, and mortgage interest rates have continued to decline. In the context of loose liquidity, the capital environment at both ends of the supply and demand of the real estate industry has improved significantly. The funds provided by real estate enterprises have increased by 13% compared with the same period last year, of which development loans have increased by 20%, while deposits, advance payments and mortgage loans have increased by 15% and 19%, respectively, reflecting a strong recovery on the demand side. at the same time, medium-and long-term loans to central bank households have increased by 634.9 billion yuan, a sharp increase over the same period last year.It grows by 31%. Sales rose 9% in June from a year earlier, down slightly from May (+ 14%). The sharp increase in mortgage lending and central bank data in June may be due to May sales lending in June, while on the other hand, the sharp increase in deposits and advance receipts also indicates the support of demand-side sales growth from June to July. In terms of mortgage interest rates, the first and second home mortgage rates fell by 4bp and 3bp respectively in June, for the seventh consecutive month.Slide. In terms of investment, front-line A-share leaders recommend:Poly real estate、Jindi Group、Vanke A、Investment promotion ShekouThe second-tier A-share leader recommends:Construction of Central and South China、Sunshine City、Jinke shares、Blu-ray development、Huafa shares、Prosperous developmentH-share leader recommends:Sunac China、China Overseas Land & Investment、China Vanke、Xuhui holding GroupThe H-share leader focuses on:Jinmao, China, Hejing Pacific Group, etc., sub-areas recommend:China International Trade、New Lake Zhongbao,Sub-domain concerns:Everbright Garbo。
Risk hints: policy regulation and control is further strengthened; mortgage interest rates continue to rise; industry inventory rises faster than expected; industryFundamentalsMore than expected downlinkReal estateTax legislation has exceeded expectations.