7月15日,两市股指盘中维持弱势震荡态势,截至收盘,沪指跌1.56%报3361.3点,深成指跌1.87%报13734.13点,创业板指跌1.6%报2813.06点。盘面上看,旅游、酒店餐饮板块大幅走高,酒类股再度活跃,食品饮料、医药板块走强,具体来看:
1、酒店旅游
酒店、餐饮旅游板块今日盘中大幅拉升,截至收盘,挂林旅游、曲江文旅、长白山、云南旅游、西安旅游、张家界、九华旅游、大连圣亚、天目湖、黄山旅游等涨停,西藏旅游逼近涨停。
此外,酒店餐饮板块亦走高,截至收盘,华天酒店、岭南控股、锦江酒店等涨停。
消息面上,7月14日晚,文化和旅游部办公厅下发通知:除中、高风险区域外,其余地区经当地同意后,可恢复旅行社及在线旅游企业经营跨省(区、市)团队旅游及“机票+酒店”业务。同时,在严格落实各项防控措施,采取预约、限流的前提下,允许逐步开放旅游景区室内场所。不过通知明确,暂不恢复出入境旅游业务。
携程相关人士表示,消息一出,携程平台上度假、酒店、民航等各个板块搜索量迅速攀升,国内跟团游、自由行瞬时搜索量相比开放前暴涨500%,国内游客的暑假旅游意愿迅速被激发。暑期一直是旅游行业一年中的小高峰。
渤海证券指出,旅游业持续向好的趋势没有改变。从长期角度推荐以下几条投资主线:1)持续受政策红利且逻辑清晰的免税行业;2)估值处于低点且具备较大弹性的酒店行业龙头;3)模式成熟且具备异地复制能力的优质景区类公司。综上,推荐中国中免、锦江酒店以及宋城演艺。
2、酒类股
酒类股今日盘中再度活跃,截至收盘,古井贡酒、伊力特涨幅超6%,迎驾贡酒、顺鑫农业、山西汾酒等涨幅超5%。
对于白酒板块,华创证券指出,财富效应下,茅台需求自加强明显加速,送礼和资产属性全面放大,供需紧张加剧,当前淡季发货配额不高,尽管公司出台措施控制,批价失控上涨,中秋前飞天批价将继续上涨。五粮液加推企业团购等新渠道,摆脱“一放量就批价回落”的历史问题,批价稳步上行。资金层面,近期基金发行热度较高,预计将为高端白酒等消费龙头带来明显的增量资金。结合批价展望、中报预期及增量资金效应,高端白酒估值溢价有望强化,继续全面推荐贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖。高端白酒估值溢价也将带动板块中秋前整体热度,标的选取上,建议从基本面支撑角度,加码古井贡酒、山西汾酒、今世缘,关注洋河股份经营拐点。
3、食品饮料
食品饮料板块今日盘中再度走强,截至收盘,保龄宝、绝味食品、道道全、金达威、煌上煌等涨停,双汇发展新涨逾7%。
展望2020年下半年,民生证券认为食品饮料板块仍将保持相对较好的收入及盈利增长性。尽管2020年下半年估值提升空间已大幅收窄,但一方面整体市场向好有助板块整体估值抬升,另一方面基本面确定的板块及公司有望持续享受估值溢价、并有望在下半年实现估值切换。重点追寻两条主线:(1)稳健思路——稳定为王,盈利驱动收获确定性收益。推荐:高端白酒贵五泸;次高端及大众白酒推荐山西汾酒、今世缘、顺鑫农业。
(2)弹性之选——基本面改善或反转、具备“戴维斯双击”空间。推荐:白酒板块推荐渠道改革持续推进、下半年有望重拾增长的洋河股份;乳制品板块中期看竞争有望逐步趋缓、盈利弹性有望恢复,推荐伊利股份、光明乳业、燕塘乳业、天润乳业;调味品板块推荐销售体系改革、增长有望逐步提速的中炬高新、恒顺醋业;啤酒板块整体盈利性有望延续趋势性好转态势,维持对整体板块推荐,重点推荐青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、珠江
4、医药板块
医药板块今日盘中震荡上扬,截至收盘,海利生物、甘李药业、西藏药业、康华生物、广誉远、复星医药、海南海药、葫芦娃、长江健康等涨停,九典制药涨逾9%。
万联证券指出,虽然医药板块上半年涨幅明显,但是其行业成长仍具有长期广阔空间。短期建议关注前期受疫情影响股价相对滞涨、但具备较高PEG性价比的相关成长类个股,同时中报季即将来临,建议关注中报业绩保持较快增长;中长期仍坚定看好行业内部优质赛道,逢低布局创新药及研发产业链(CXO)、受益于医疗新基建的创新医疗器械、以及医疗服务/消费(生长激素、医疗康复及超预期个股类)优质个股。
On July 15, the stock indexes of the two cities maintained a weak volatility in intraday trading. By the close, the Prev index was down 1.56 per cent at 3361.3 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index was down 1.87 per cent at 13734.13 points, and the gem index was down 1.6 per cent at 2813.06 points. On the disk, the tourism and hotel catering sectors rose sharply, the alcohol stocks became active again, and the food and beverage and pharmaceutical sectors strengthened. Specifically:
1. Hotel tourism
The hotel and catering tourism sector rose sharply in intraday trading today, as of the close, hanging forest tourism, Qujiang cultural tourism, Changbai Mountain, Yunnan tourism, Xi'an tourism, Zhangjiajie, Jiuhua tourism, Dalian Shengya, Tianmu Lake, Huangshan tourism, etc., Tibet tourism is approaching the limit.
In addition, the hotel catering sector is also higher, as of the close, Huatian Hotel, Lingnan Holdings, Jinjiang Hotel and other trading.
In the news, on the evening of July 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a notice: with the exception of medium and high-risk areas, travel agencies and online tourism enterprises can resume their inter-provincial (regional and municipal) group tourism and "air ticket + hotel" business. At the same time, under the premise of strictly implementing various prevention and control measures and taking reservations and current restrictions, the indoor places of tourist scenic spots are allowed to be opened step by step. However, the notice makes it clear that the inbound and outbound tourism business will not be resumed for the time being.
A person related to Trip.com said that as soon as the news came out, the search volume of various sectors such as holidays, hotels, civil aviation and other sectors on the Trip.com platform rose rapidly, and the number of domestic instantaneous searches for group tours and individual trips soared by 500% compared with those before opening up. The summer vacation travel desire of domestic tourists has been quickly stimulated. Summer vacation has always been a small peak in the tourism industry of the year.
Bohai Securities pointed out that the trend of continued improvement in tourism has not changed. From a long-term point of view, the following main investment lines are recommended: 1) tax-free industries that continue to receive policy dividends and clear logic; 2) hotel industry leaders with low valuations and greater flexibility; and 3) high-quality scenic spot companies with mature models and the ability to replicate in different places. To sum up, China exemption, Jinjiang Hotel and Songcheng Performing Arts are recommended.
2. Alcoholic stocks
Alcohol stocks are active again in intraday trading today. By the close, Gujing Gong Liquor and Elite rose more than 6%, while Yingjia Gong Jiu, Shunxin Agriculture, Shanxi Fen Liquor and so on rose more than 5%.
For the liquor sector, Huachuang Securities pointed out that under the wealth effect, the self-strengthening of Maotai demand has obviously accelerated, the attributes of gifts and assets have been fully magnified, the tension between supply and demand has intensified, and the current off-season delivery quota is not high, although the company has introduced measures to control, wholesale prices are out of control, and flying prices will continue to rise before the Mid-Autumn Festival. Wuliangye plus push enterprise group buying and other new channels, get rid of the historical problem of "the wholesale price falls as soon as the volume is released", and the wholesale price rises steadily. At the financial level, the recent hot issue of funds is expected to bring obvious incremental funds to consumer leaders such as high-end spirits. Combined with wholesale price outlook, medium report expectation and incremental capital effect, the valuation premium of high-end liquor is expected to be strengthened, and Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye and Luzhou laojiao will continue to be fully recommended. The valuation premium of high-end liquor will also drive the overall popularity of the plate before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and it is suggested that from the perspective of fundamental support, add Gujing tribute wine, Shanxi Fenjiu, this world margin, and pay attention to the inflection point of Yanghe stock management.
3. Food and beverage
The food and beverage sector strengthened again in intraday trading today. By the close, Bao Lingbao, tasteless food, Daoquan, Jindawei, Huang Shanghuang, etc., were up by the daily limit, and Shuanghui development was up more than 7%.
Looking forward to the second half of 2020, Minsheng Securities believes that the food and beverage sector will maintain relatively good income and profit growth. Although the room for valuation improvement has narrowed significantly in the second half of 2020, on the one hand, the improvement of the overall market will help the overall valuation of the sector to rise, on the other hand, the sectors and companies defined by the fundamentals are expected to continue to enjoy the valuation premium and are expected to switch valuations in the second half of the year. Focus on the pursuit of two main lines: (1) sound thinking-stability is the king, profit-driven harvest of deterministic income. Recommendation: high-end spirits are expensive; sub-high-end and popular spirits recommend Shanxi Fen Liquor, Jinshiyuan and Shunxin Agriculture.
(2) the choice of flexibility-the improvement or reversal of fundamentals and the space for "Davis double-click". Recommendation: Yanghe shares, which are expected to grow again in the second half of the year; competition in the dairy sector is expected to gradually slow down and profit elasticity is expected to recover in the medium term; recommend Yili shares, Guangming Dairy, Yantang Dairy and Tianrun Dairy; Zhongju High-tech and Hengshun vinegar, which are expected to gradually accelerate the reform and growth of the recommended sales system in the condiment plate. The overall profitability of the beer sector is expected to continue the trend of improvement, maintain the recommendation of the whole sector, with emphasis on Tsing Tao Beer, Chongqing Beer and Pearl River.
4. Medicine plate
The pharmaceutical sector rose in intraday trading today. By the close, Haili Biological, Ganli Pharmaceutical, Tibetan Pharmaceutical, Kanghua Biological, Guanyuyuan, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, Hainan Marine Medicine, Huluwa, and Yangtze River Health were up by the daily limit, while Jiudan Pharmaceutical was up more than 9%.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that although the pharmaceutical sector rose significantly in the first half of the year, its industry still has a long-term broad space for growth. Short-term recommendations focus on the relative stagflation of stock prices affected by the epidemic, but with high PEG performance-to-price ratio of the relevant growth stocks, at the same time, the mid-reporting season is approaching, it is recommended to pay attention to the reported performance to maintain rapid growth In the medium to long term, we are still firmly optimistic about high-quality tracks within the industry, bargain-hunting innovative drugs and R & D industry chain (CXO), innovative medical devices benefiting from new medical infrastructure, and medical services / consumption (growth hormone, medical rehabilitation and higher-than-expected stocks) high-quality stocks.