① Tech Rally: Storage giants propel Korea's KOSPI to soar 75%, China's Growth Enterprise Market surges over 49% for the year, and the STAR Market Composite Index jumps 46%; ② Metal Frenzy: Gold and silver together post their largest annual gains since 1979; ③ Dollar Decline: The dollar records its most severe annual retreat in nearly eight years, while the renminbi returns to the '6' era.
Cailian Press, January 1 (Editor Shi Zhengzhi) As the overnight U.S. stock market slowly closed its doors, trading for 2025 has now completely concluded.
This year witnessed a series of historically significant events that drove fluctuations across various asset classes. Investors’ joys and sorrows were reflected in the ever-changing red and green digits. Below is Cailian Press’s year-end review of global assets for 2025:
Global Stock Markets: “Tech Rally” Resonates Worldwide
In 2025, major global stock benchmark indices all achieved double-digit percentage gains. For equity investors, the overall performance for the year largely depended on how much their portfolios contained technology-related stocks or exposure to hot sectors like defense, metals, and energy.
As the strongest-performing market globally in 2025, South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index ended with an astonishing annual gain of 75.63%. This result is not difficult to explain — Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the storage powerhouses accounting for nearly 30% of the index’s weight, surged 125% and 274%, respectively, for the year. AI-related trades also took off in the Korean market, with transformer manufacturer Hyosung Heavy Industries and nuclear giant Doosan posting annual gains exceeding 300%.
(SK Hynix annual line chart, source: TradingView)
Investors in China, positioned at the forefront of global technological advancement, also experienced a “tech bull market.” The Growth Enterprise Market Index rose 49% for the year, while the STAR Market Composite Index delivered an impressive gain of 46.93%. As representatives of these markets, robot concept stock Shangwei Advanced Materials surged 1820% during the year, “PCB King” Shenghong Technology skyrocketed 586%, and investor favorites such as Xin Yi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication saw gains of 424%, 396%, and 213%, respectively.
Major European stock indices also enjoyed their strongest performance since 2021 in 2025. Amid uncertainties in the United States, European markets benefited as global investors allocated capital to “non-U.S. assets,” with standout performances from European banks and defense industries. Meanwhile, the UK market was boosted by the metal and mining sector, with Fresnillo, the world’s largest primary silver miner, surging 436% for the year.
In comparison, the U.S. stock market experienced a volatile year, oscillating between frenzied speculation on AI themes and skepticism about an AI bubble. Economic and policy uncertainties weighed on consumer and retail sectors. Despite the turbulence, the Nasdaq managed to achieve a third consecutive year of 20%-plus gains.
Moreover, due to the impact of the 'Trump tariffs,' the extent to which US stock investors can earn profits exceeding benchmark levels this year largely depends on how much position was added during the first week of April. Given that the US Supreme Court may rule on tariff issues in the coming months, related uncertainties will persist until 2026.
Commodities: Metals Shine Throughout the Year
As a tangible manifestation of the 'Trump tariffs' impacting global trade, large quantities of various metals stockpiled in US warehouses have driven year-long hot topics: gold repeatedly hitting new highs, followed by a surge in silver at the end of the year. The two precious metals together achieved their largest annual increase since 1979.
Although the sharp rise in silver at year-end triggered another episode of the 'CME vs. Silver Bulls' saga, this metal, which serves both as a store of value and for industrial use, still topped the list of commodity gains in 2025 with a 147% increase. Under the influence of surging gold and silver prices, other related precious metals such as platinum and palladium also took off.
The story of surging prices is not limited to precious metals; London copper also recorded its largest gain since 2009 in 2025. Rising demand from AI data centers and electrification transitions collided with continuous disruptions from major copper mine accidents, forming the supporting factors for the rise in copper prices in 2025, and supply tightness will continue into 2026. Additionally, the US plans to revisit copper tariffs in 2026, reigniting hopes for arbitrage trading.
On the losing side, oil prices in 2025 not only marked the third consecutive year of decline but also recorded the largest annual drop since 2020. Bitcoin, which had doubled annually in 2023 and 2024, ended the year with a decline. At the bottom of the chart, cocoa futures, which performed strongly last year, led the losses.
Foreign Exchange: Initial Signs of Dollar Weakness
As global confidence in the dollar begins to waver and the Federal Reserve gradually advances its rate-cutting cycle, the dollar, as the global exchange rate benchmark, recorded its most significant annual pullback in the past eight years in 2025.
Amid the weakening of the dollar, the offshore Renminbi (CNH) exchange rate has steadily appreciated since April and broke through the key level of 7 yuan per dollar at the end of the year, with the latest quote at 6.9753.
The next question is also clear: Will the Federal Reserve become more 'dovish' under Trump's intervention next year?
In the Federal Reserve's December decision and meeting minutes last year, the current group of Fed officials showed a preference for only one rate cut in 2026, with many believing that a waiting period is necessary before the next rate cut. The 'FedWatch' indicator also shows that the market currently expects only two rate cuts next year, with the first not anticipated until at least April and the second occurring in the fall.
However, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, stated in a recent New Year outlook that, under the premise of continued weakness in the labor market, coupled with Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank could potentially cut interest rates three times in the first half of 2026.
Currently, among the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, Waller, Bowman, and Milan were personally appointed by Trump. It remains unclear whether Powell will continue to serve as a Fed governor after May this year, while Trump is also attempting to remove another governor, Lisa Cook.
Zandi noted: 'Trump will continue to pressure for rate cuts, and as he appoints more members to the Federal Open Market Committee, including the appointment of the Fed Chair in May, the independence of the Federal Reserve will gradually weaken. Given the upcoming midterm elections in Congress, political pressures for further rate cuts to support economic growth may intensify.'
As part of the impact of the metal boom on the foreign exchange market, the local currencies of major African metal producers such as Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and others have surged. The commodity boom has bolstered growth prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and helped these nations significantly alleviate fiscal pressures.
