This article is edited by founder Securities "Aliyun History carding: ten years of sharpening a sword to be a wind maker in the digital economy era", CITIC Construction Investment "BABA: profitability is stable, core business and cloud computing are the core drivers of the future"
Summary:Hong Kong stock technology leaders have hit new highs one after another recently, and last night BABA once again surpassed Tencent to become China's first market capitalization company. However, in this round of market prices, BABA lags far behind the technology sector. Citic Construction Investment Analysis, BABA as China's largest consumer Internet platform, the strong basic market is unshakable, and driven by the core business and cloud computing, the future will still reap steady growth. Guotai Junan judged that accompanied by 9.Month into the Hang Seng Index positive catalysis, as well as the core business warming and cloud computing high growth, BABA is expected to run out.
First, in this round of market, BABA was forgotten?
BABA's share price soared this week, and once again surpassed Tencent to become the first market capitalization company in China..
However, Guotai Junan analyzed that after a large-scale correction from February to March, many Hong Kong Internet companies and US-listed stocks rose by double digits, such as Tencent, Meituan and Pinduoduo.But in this round of market, BABA's performance lags far behind the average..
2. Full ecological GMVWith trillions of dollars, the strong basic market is unshakable.
On the reasons why BABA has recently outperformed other science and technology stocksThe more consistent view is that the market is worried that BABA will be attacked by the rapid pursuit of Pinduoduo and JD.com. And as a business giant, how can BABA achieve the sustained growth of a super-large organization in a rapidly changing market environment?
For the above concernsAnalysis of CITIC Construction InvestmentBABA, as the largest consumer Internet platform in China, the strong basic disk is unshakable, and driven by core business and cloud computing, it will still reap steady growth in the future.
According to the latest FY4Q20 financial report, BABA's active sellers and per capita GMV have maintained steady growth. Taobao + Tmall's annual GMV has increased by 15.1% to 6.6 trillion yuan, and the whole ecological GMV has exceeded US $1 trillion as scheduled:
In terms of profitability, the overall monetization rate of the domestic retail business has also increased moderately:
Citic Construction Investment judgmentDespite the increasingly fierce competition in e-commerce, BABA is very robust in cost control and stable in profitability. it is expected that the core driver for FY21 will still be core business and cloud computing.
As the core growth point in the future, Aliyun's full-year revenue exceeded 40 billion yuan, + 62.0% compared with the same period last year, and continued to maintain its leading position, with Q4's domestic share reaching 46.4%.Founder Securities AnalysisAliyun provides important social security after the epidemic, while the demand for online services driven by big data will continue to grow at a high level in the next few years, and Aliyun is expected to continue to exceed expectations. In April 2020, BABA plans to invest 200 billion yuan in cloud infrastructure construction in the next three years.
Recently, Aliyun has received demand for capacity expansion from a number of securities firms, exposing the shortage of the supply side:
Profit and valuation
Haitong predictsBABA's 2021FY-2023FY Non-GAAP net profit was 1585 yuan, 1968 yuan and 234.9 billion yuan respectively, up 20%, 24% and 19% respectively. Segment valuation gives 2021FY a reasonable market capitalization range of US $637.3 billion to US $767.6 billion and HK $4.9 trillion to HK $6 trillionReasonable value rangeH230-277 sharesHong Kong dollar /StockUs stocks230-277Us $/Stock.
From the perspective of valuationGuotai Junan analyzed that BABA's current 12-month forecast price-to-earnings ratio is between twice the standard deviation and twice the standard deviation, and the 12-month expected price-to-book ratio is below the average, so the valuation is relatively cheap:
Edit / gary