①What data will the U.S. release this week? What impact will it have on the gold market?
②How do institutions view the performance of international gold prices?
Most gold stocks in Hong Kong's stock market strengthened today. As of the time of writing, Zijin Gold International surged over 7%, Chifeng Gold rose nearly 5%, Lingbao Gold increased over 2%, and Zhaojin Mining gained more than 1%.
The core factor driving the strength in gold stocks is the continued rise in gold prices. In Asian morning trading,$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$it rose over 1%, reaching $4,343.69 per ounce, just a step away from its all-time high.
This week, the U.S. will enter a period of密集发布key economic data releases. On Tuesday, the November non-farm payroll report will be released, and on Thursday, the November CPI data will be announced. These figures not only fill the statistical gaps caused by the recent government shutdown but will also directly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory ahead of its final interest rate meeting in 2025. Given the ongoing debate over the magnitude of rate cuts, this 'super data week' could serve as a crucial indicator for the year’s market trends.
It is worth noting that rate cuts generally benefit gold: on one hand, declining interest rates tend to weaken the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, supporting gold priced in dollars; on the other hand, markets often "buy the rumor, sell the fact"—gold prices may rise in anticipation of rate cuts but could correct afterward as the positive catalyst is priced in advance. The current trend in gold prices will heavily depend on this week’s data performance, with investors closely watching these indicators for guidance on monetary policy prospects.
China continues to increase its gold reserves.
Official data shows that the People's Bank of China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves. According to the latest statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, marking consecutive months of accumulation. Globally, data from the World Gold Council indicates that total global gold demand in the third quarter of 2025 reached 1,313 tons, amounting to $146 billion, setting a new record for a single quarter.
Ping An Securities research report notes that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to initiate rate cuts in December, which will provide further upward momentum for gold prices. In the medium to long term, unresolved U.S. debt issues, weakening dollar credibility, combined with central bank purchases and growing investment demand, suggest that the price center for precious metals is expected to continue rising.
Institutions believe gold prices are poised to remain strong.
Looking ahead, State Street Global Advisors believes that gold prices in 2025 are set to achieve their best annual performance since 1979, primarily driven by structural bull market logic. Looking into 2026, although the pace of gains may moderate, gold prices are expected to trend higher within a range of $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce. Supporting factors include the continuation of the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, robust demand from central banks and retail investors, sustained inflows into gold ETFs, rising correlations between equities and bonds, and mounting global debt pressures that undermine long-term confidence in the U.S. dollar.
Bank of America believes that the bull market for gold is far from over. Michael Widmer, the head of metals research at the institution, pointed out that the fundamental logic supporting the rise in gold prices remains solid, and the market is still in a state of 'underinvestment.' He also believes that this bullish environment will not end soon. For next year, the bank forecasts that gold prices will be pushed to USD 5,000 per ounce.
He noted that achieving this target would only require a 14% increase in investment demand, which is roughly in line with the average growth rate observed in recent quarters. Meanwhile, a 55% increase in investment demand would be needed to push gold prices to $8,000 per ounce next year.
Editor/melody
