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Are interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions imminent? The Central Economic Work Conference sets a clear direction for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026.

FX168 ·  Dec 12, 2025 02:05

FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) reported that China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10 to 11, comprehensively outlining the key priorities for economic work in 2026.

According to Xinhua News Agency, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, President, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, ****, delivered an important speech at the conference. He reviewed the performance of China’s economy in 2025, assessed the current economic situation, and systematically arranged next year’s economic work.

The meeting noted that 2025 was an extraordinary year, with major socio-economic development goals expected to be successfully achieved. As the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) is nearing its conclusion, China has overcome multiple challenges over the past five years, achieving significant outcomes in the development of the Party and the country.

The meeting pointed out that in 2026, China will continue to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while steadily resolving local government fiscal difficulties.

The meeting emphasized the implementation of a "moderately accommodative monetary policy," intensifying counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to consolidate the foundation for economic stabilization and recovery. Policymakers expressed intentions to flexibly utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.

In terms of fiscal policy, the meeting proposed adopting a "more proactive fiscal policy" while optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures to improve the efficiency of fund utilization.

High-quality development remains the core task.

The meeting stressed the need to further unlock economic potential by combining policy support with reform and innovation. It emphasized balancing market vitality stimulation with effective regulation, integrating physical investment with human capital investment. Additionally, efforts should enhance endogenous development capabilities to confidently address external uncertainties.

Despite facing challenges such as deepening impacts from the external environment and exposure of risks in key areas, the meeting highlighted that these risks are generally controllable, and the fundamental positive long-term outlook of the Chinese economy remains unchanged.

Leadership emphasized fully, accurately, and comprehensively implementing the new development philosophy, accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern, and striving for new breakthroughs in high-quality development.

Macroeconomic Policies for 2026: More Proactive, Precise, and Coordinated

China will continue to adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, balancing domestic economic development with international trade and economic challenges to ensure that development and security proceed hand in hand.

The meeting proposed implementing more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, including:

In terms of fiscal policy:

Continue to implement an active fiscal policy

Reasonably manage fiscal deficits and overall debt levels

Standardize tax incentives and subsidy policies

Focus on resolving contradictions between local government revenue and expenditure

Strengthen budget management and disciplinary constraints within Party and government institutions

In terms of monetary policy:

Maintain a 'moderately accommodative' monetary policy stance

Flexibly utilize tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions

Ensure reasonable and sufficient liquidity

Guide financial institutions to increase support for key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises

The meeting also pointed out that it will maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and further enhance the coordination of macroeconomic policies, strengthen expectations management, and boost confidence across all sectors.

Develop the domestic market, stabilize expectations, and control risks, laying a foundation for the '15th Five-Year Plan'

According to the meeting's deployment, the policy priorities for 2026 include:

Accelerate the construction of a unified national market

Expand domestic demand and optimize supply structure

Develop new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions

Effectively prevent and resolve risks in key industries and fields

Stabilize employment, growth, market entities, and expectations

Lay a solid foundation for the 2026–2030 '15th Five-Year Plan'

The following is the full text of the original article by Xinhua News Agency:

The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10 to 11. ****, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, President of the People's Republic of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, attended the meeting and delivered an important speech. Members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee—Li Qiang, ****, ****, Cai Qi, ****, and Li Xi—also attended the meeting.

In his important speech, **** summarized the economic work of 2025, analyzed the current economic situation, and laid out plans for the economic work of 2026. Li Qiang delivered a concluding speech, outlining requirements for implementing the spirit of General Secretary ****'s important speech and ensuring effective economic work for next year.

The conference pointed out that this year has been an extraordinary one. Under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade **** at its core, the entire Party and all ethnic groups across the country have faced difficulties head-on and strived hard, unswervingly implementing new development concepts and promoting high-quality development. By balancing domestic and international situations, more proactive macroeconomic policies have been implemented, and the main targets for economic and social development are expected to be successfully achieved. China’s economy has pressed forward under pressure, advancing towards innovation and optimization. Progress in building a modern industrial system has continued, reform and opening-up have taken new strides, significant progress has been made in addressing risks in key areas, and livelihood security has become more robust. Over the past five years, we have effectively responded to various shocks and challenges, achieving new major accomplishments in the cause of the Party and the state. The '14th Five-Year Plan' is about to conclude successfully, and a good start has been made on the new journey toward the second centenary goal.

Through practice, we have gained new insights and experiences regarding economic work under the new circumstances: it is essential to fully tap into economic potential; policy support and reform innovation must go hand in hand; a balance between 'liberalization' and 'regulation' must be struck; investment in physical assets and human capital should be closely integrated; and strengthening internal capabilities is crucial to address external challenges.

The conference noted that old problems and new challenges in China's economic development remain numerous. The impact of changes in the external environment has deepened, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand domestically is prominent, and there are many risk factors in key areas. Most of these are issues arising during development and transformation, which can be resolved through effort. The fundamental conditions and trends supporting China's long-term economic growth remain unchanged. We must strengthen our confidence, leverage our strengths, and respond to challenges to continuously consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic performance.

The meeting emphasized that next year’s economic work must be guided by **** Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, thoroughly implementing the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress and subsequent plenary sessions. We should fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, adhere to the general tone of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, better coordinate domestic economic work with international economic and trade struggles, and better balance development and security. More proactive macroeconomic policies will be implemented to enhance their forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature, continuously expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, improving incremental growth, revitalizing existing assets, developing new quality productivity according to local conditions, pushing forward the construction of a unified national market, preventing and resolving key risks, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, driving both qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, maintaining social harmony and stability, and achieving a good start to the '15th Five-Year Plan.'

The conference pointed out that, in terms of policy orientation for next year’s economic work, it is necessary to adhere to stability while seeking progress, improve quality and efficiency, leverage the integrated effects of existing and new policies, intensify countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts, and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance. A more proactive fiscal policy should be continued. It is essential to maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt, and expenditure, strengthen scientific fiscal management, optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures, and standardize preferential tax policies and fiscal subsidy measures. Addressing local fiscal difficulties should be prioritized to ensure the baseline of 'three guarantees' at the grassroots level. Fiscal discipline must be strictly enforced, with Party and government agencies continuing to operate under tight budgetary constraints. A moderately accommodative monetary policy should also be maintained. Promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery should serve as key considerations for monetary policy, utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions flexibly and efficiently, ensuring ample liquidity, facilitating the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and guiding financial institutions to intensify support for key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The renminbi exchange rate should be kept basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policy orientation must be strengthened. All types of economic and non-economic policies, as well as existing and new policies, should be incorporated into the assessment framework for consistency in macro policy orientation. Mechanisms for expectation management should be improved to boost public confidence.

The conference identified the following key tasks for next year’s economic work.

First, adhere to domestic demand leadership and build a strong domestic market. Deepen the implementation of consumption-stimulating special actions and formulate and implement income-increasing plans for urban and rural residents. Expand the supply of high-quality goods and services. Optimize the implementation of 'two new' policies. Remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector and unleash the potential of service consumption. Promote investment stabilization and recovery by appropriately increasing the scale of central budgetary investment, optimizing the implementation of 'two major' projects, improving the use management of local government special bonds, continuing to utilize new policy-based financial instruments, and effectively stimulating private investment vitality. Advance urban renewal with high quality.

Second, adhere to innovation-driven development and accelerate the cultivation and expansion of new drivers. Develop an integrated plan to advance education, science and technology, and talent development. Build international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing (Jing-Jin-Ji region), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Strengthen the role of enterprises as innovation leaders and improve intellectual property protection systems in emerging fields. Formulate action plans to enhance the capacity and quality of the service sector. Implement a new round of high-quality development initiatives for key industrial chains. Deepen and expand the application of 'artificial intelligence+', and improve artificial intelligence governance. Innovate financial services for science and technology.

Third, adhere to reform efforts and enhance the momentum and vitality of high-quality development. Draft regulations for the construction of a unified national market and intensify efforts to address 'internecine' competition. Formulate and implement further plans to deepen state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms and improve complementary regulations and policies for the promotion of private enterprise law. Expedite the clearance of overdue payments owed to enterprises. Promote win-win development among platform enterprises, operators within platforms, and workers. Expand pilot programs for factor market-oriented reforms. Improve the local tax system. Further advance the reduction and quality improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions and continue to deepen comprehensive reforms in capital markets for investment and financing.

Fourth, adhere to opening up and promote multi-field cooperation for mutual benefit. Steadily advance institutional openness, orderly expand autonomous openness in service sectors, optimize the layout and scope of free trade pilot zones, and solidly push forward the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port. Promote the integration of trade and investment, as well as the integration of domestic and foreign trade. Encourage and support service exports, actively develop digital trade and green trade. Deepen the reform of mechanisms for attracting foreign investment. Improve overseas comprehensive service systems. Promote high-quality development in jointly building the 'Belt and Road'. Push for the signing of more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements.

Fifth, adhere to coordinated development and promote urban-rural integration and regional synergy. Coordinate urbanization construction with counties as important carriers and the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas, promoting high-quality development of county economies. Strictly protect arable land red lines, maintain unwavering focus on grain production, and ensure prices of important agricultural products like grain remain at reasonable levels. Continuously consolidate and expand achievements in poverty alleviation, incorporate routine assistance into the rural revitalization strategy, and firmly guard against large-scale relapse into poverty. Support economically strong provinces in playing leading roles. Strengthen coordination and linkage among key city clusters and deepen cross-administrative cooperation. Enhance overall planning for major bays and promote high-quality development of the marine economy.

Sixth, adhere to the 'dual carbon' guidance and promote a comprehensive green transformation. Deepen energy conservation and carbon reduction renovations in key industries. Formulate an outline for building a strong energy nation, accelerate the construction of a new energy system, and expand the application of green electricity. Strengthen the construction of a nationwide carbon emission trading market. Implement comprehensive actions for solid waste management, intensify efforts to safeguard blue skies, clear waters, and clean lands, and reinforce the governance of emerging pollutants. Solidly advance the 'Three-North' project's critical battles, and implement the integration and optimization of nature reserves. Enhance the construction of meteorological monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems, urgently address infrastructure gaps in flood control, drainage, and disaster resistance in northern regions, and improve resilience against extreme weather.

Seventh, prioritize people’s livelihoods and strive to accomplish more practical deeds for the public. Implement initiatives to stabilize employment and enhance job quality, secure employment for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, and encourage flexible and new forms of employment personnel to participate in employee insurance. Advance structural adjustments in educational resource allocation, increase the supply of senior high school seats and undergraduate enrollment in quality universities. Optimize centralized drug procurement, deepen reforms in medical insurance payment methods. Implement capacity expansion projects for rehabilitation and nursing, promote a long-term care insurance system, and strengthen support and assistance for vulnerable groups. Advocate positive attitudes toward marriage and childbirth, and work to stabilize the scale of newborn populations. Diligently ensure workplace safety, disaster prevention and relief, and food and drug safety.

Eighth, adhere to guarding against risks in key areas and actively and steadily resolve them. Focus on stabilizing the real estate market by adopting city-specific measures to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. Encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing primarily for affordable housing. Deepen reforms in the housing provident fund system and orderly promote the construction of 'quality homes.' Accelerate the development of a new model for real estate growth. Actively and systematically mitigate local government debt risks, urge regions to proactively manage debt, and avoid irregularly increasing hidden debts. Optimize debt restructuring and replacement methods, and adopt multiple measures to address operational debt risks of local government financing platforms.

The meeting emphasized aligning thoughts and actions with the Party Central Committee’s scientific assessment of the situation, understanding China's broader development trends, and maintaining confidence in future growth. Fully implement the overall requirements and policy directions for next year’s economic work, adhere to proactive and pragmatic goal orientation, focus on solving existing difficulties, and achieve greater breakthroughs in effectively improving quality, thereby enhancing the sense of gain for residents and enterprises. Strengthen the synergy between reform and policies to continuously improve economic operations and market expectations. Grasp key focal points for next year's economic work within the broader context: strengthening domestic circulation, expanding new spaces for domestic demand growth; fostering new productive forces through deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation; stimulating the momentum and vitality of high-quality development through unwavering reform and expanded opening-up; enhancing people’s well-being by intensifying social security and improvements; and ensuring security by prudently managing risks in key areas.

The meeting underscored the need to strengthen the Party’s comprehensive leadership over economic work, forming a unified will and powerful synergy. Uphold the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, allowing regions and departments to adapt strategies based on local conditions while fully implementing the Party Central Committee’s ideas, tasks, and policies regarding next year’s economic work. Establish and practice a correct concept of political achievement, focusing on serving the people and achieving results through action, adhering to objective laws, and improving differentiated evaluation systems. Develop national and local '15th Five-Year Plan' outlines and special plans according to the recommendations of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee to promote high-quality and sustainable development. Foster a favorable political, talent, business, and public opinion environment, strengthen policy communication and interpretation, and fully stimulate positive social energy.

The meeting requested ensuring the supply of essential consumer goods during the year-end and New Year period, caring for the production and living conditions of disadvantaged groups, and resolutely preventing and curbing major accidents.

The meeting called on the entire Party and society to unite even more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade **** at its core, work together with one heart, forge ahead with determination, and strive to achieve next year’s economic and social development goals and tasks, ensuring a good start and solid beginning to the '15th Five-Year Plan.'

Attending the meeting were members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, members of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, vice chairpersons of the Central Military Commission, relevant leading comrades of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, State Councilors, the President of the Supreme People’s Court, the Procurator-General of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, relevant leading comrades of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and members of the Central Military Commission.

The principal leaders of the Party and government from provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, special administrative regions, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, as well as the main leaders of relevant departments of the central and state organs, relevant people’s organizations, some financial institutions and enterprises under central management, and various departments of the Central Military Commission, participated in the meeting.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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