① As of the update on December 9, there are now five ETFs in the market with net value returns exceeding 100% year-to-date; ② This is not the first time this year that ETFs have doubled in value. Communications and artificial intelligence-themed ETFs are once again gaining momentum. Will they lead the market in 2025?
Cailian Press, December 10 (reporter Zhou Xiaoya) – The ETF market has seen a resurgence of funds that have doubled in value, reshuffling the year-to-date performance rankings.
This is not the first time this year that ETFs have achieved doubled performance. Earlier in July, innovative pharmaceutical-themed ETFs had consecutively topped the doubled fund list for three months but subsequently experienced a decline in net value. Despite undergoing market adjustments, communications and artificial intelligence-themed ETFs have recently regained momentum. Can they ultimately become the "Champion ETF" of the year?Return of Doubled ETFs
As of the close on December 9, the Guotai CSI Full-Fledged Communications Equipment ETF led the market with a 3.09% increase. With the ongoing strengthening of market conditions, the fund’s year-to-date performance doubled again earlier this month. Previously, the fund's net value peaked in late October, with a year-to-date return of 117.38%.
Following the December 9 net value update, the latest year-to-date return of this ETF reached 122.27%, leading the ETF market. The fund’s net value also hit a new high on that day at 3.0297.
In addition to the Guotai CSI Full-Fledged Communications Equipment ETF, the Fuguo CSI Communications Equipment Theme ETF has also returned to the doubled fund category. As of December 9, the year-to-date performance return of the Fuguo CSI Communications Equipment Theme ETF has reached 111.21%, with its cumulative unit net value rising to 2.4910.
The Southern ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF, established less than eight months ago, has recently seen its net value repeatedly reach new highs, entering the year-to-date "doubled fund" category. On December 9, the ETF’s net value continued to set a new record at 2.1015, with a year-to-date net value return of 110.15%.
The Hua Bao ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF and Guotai ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF newly joined the year-to-date doubled performance category on December 9. As of December 9, the unit net value of the Hua Bao ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF reached a new high of 1.9602, with a year-to-date net value return of 104.57%. Similarly, the Guotai ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF, established less than a year ago, saw its latest unit net value at 2.0038, with a year-to-date net value return reaching 100.38%.
In fact, this is not the first time this year that an ETF has doubled in performance. Due to the strong performance of innovative drug stocks earlier, several Hong Kong-listed innovative drug ETFs had already become 'doubled funds' by July this year. Their strong performance continued in August and September, with multiple ETFs hitting new highs in net asset value (NAV) on September 8. At that time, the leading Wanji Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF also saw a year-to-date NAV increase of over 120%.
Gold stock-themed ETFs also joined the ranks of 'doubled funds' in October. However, subsequent market adjustments led to NAV pullbacks for several previously high-performing ETFs.
Who will take the crown as the top-performing ETF of the year?
The resurgence of ETFs doubling in performance has been driven by the sustained strength of related sectors, fueled by multiple factors. On December 9, the market closely watched the lifting of restrictions on H200 chips.
Huabao Fund noted three main impacts of the H200 chip release: First, it continues to benefit NVIDIA's product sales, thereby favorably impacting traditional overseas computing power supply chains such as optical modules and PCBs; second, if the H200 chip boosts domestic capital expenditure (CAPEX) on computing power deployment, it would enhance profit margins and earnings for domestic server companies like Inspur and Huapu; third, there may be a slight negative sentiment impact on domestic computing power chips, but the broader trend remains unchanged.
Reflecting the trading dynamics on December 9, the market reacted as follows: Optical modules remain the core assets of the growth sector, driving overall sentiment higher in the growth space; skepticism persists about whether domestic CAPEX for computing power can improve, causing related sectors to open high and close low; the trend toward self-reliance in domestic computing power chips remains intact, with related sectors opening low and closing high.
"Overall, the current market places greater emphasis on medium- to long-term trends, while remaining relatively conservative toward marginal catalysts that have not yet shown significant industrial changes," said Huabao Fund.
From a macro perspective, Guotai Fund noted that while the lifting of H200 restrictions represents a victory for NVIDIA’s lobbying efforts, it also marks a phase of easing tensions in U.S.-China relations. In the short term, intense confrontations are unlikely, and risk appetite in global equity markets could improve.
Looking ahead, Huabao Fund believes that from a valuation perspective, the broad technology sector has reached an attractive 'buying point,' offering opportunities to capitalize on potential short-term divergence following this Thursday’s interest rate decision meeting.
Specific areas of focus include the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF represented by optical modules, which currently serves as an index-enhanced approach within the growth sector and remains one of the most efficient directions. Investors should continue monitoring Hong Kong-listed Information Technology ETFs and Fintech ETFs, which have established a certain margin of safety. For Big Data Industry ETFs and Xinchuang ETF funds tied to server logic, while overall expected upside may be relatively limited, expectations and sentiment could still evolve further.
"AI represents a monumental technological revolution, and from all perspectives, it is far from over." Guotai Fund mentioned that by 2026, the shortage of optical modules will almost certainly persist. In 2027, in addition to the expected continued rapid growth in pluggable optical modules, the implementation of emerging technologies such as CPO is anticipated to bring additional market growth.
