Original: Binance
Compiled & Edited by Yuliya, PANews
On December 4, at the Binance Blockchain Week, Tom Lee, Chairman of Fundstrat and a well-known Wall Street analyst, delivered a keynote speech titled 'The Crypto Supercycle Is Still Alive.' $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ He pointed out that the true golden age of cryptocurrency has only just begun. Not only did he provide a 2026 price target of $300,000 for Bitcoin and $20,000 for Ethereum, but he also elaborated on why Ethereum’s value is significantly undervalued and why the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer applicable.
The Golden Age of Crypto Is Not Over Yet, with Tokenization Being the Core Narrative of the Year
At the beginning of his speech, Tom Lee reviewed the investment returns of the past decade, emphasizing the astonishing growth potential of cryptocurrencies.
He noted that if you had invested in the S&P 500 Index in December 2016, your capital would have grown approximately threefold; investing in gold might have yielded four times the returns. However, if you were wise enough to invest in cryptocurrencies back then, the return could have reached 65 times. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ But if you had invested ten years ago, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ with a staggering return of 112 times. Outperforming Bitcoin is $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ , which delivered nearly 500 times returns over the decade.
Despite the poor price performance of the crypto market since 2025, this year we have witnessed many major fundamental positive developments:
Shift in government stance: The U.S. government has demonstrated a pro-crypto position, setting a new standard for the Western world.
Strategic Bitcoin reserves: Multiple U.S. states and the federal government have planned or implemented strategic Bitcoin reserves, marking significant progress.
The success of ETFs: Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF has become one of its top five fee-generating products, an unprecedented achievement for a product launched just a year and a half ago.
Entry of traditional finance: JPMorgan, a long-time critic of cryptocurrencies, is now launching the JPM Coin on Ethereum. Tokenization has become a priority for all mainstream financial institutions.
Breakthrough of native products: The crypto market has seen two to three native products that are transforming traditional financial decision-making. For instance, the prediction market PolyMarket, which provides near “crystal ball”-like insights; Tether has proven itself to be one of the ten most profitable banks globally.
At the same time, Tom Lee believes that the core narrative of 2025 is tokenization. It all begins with stablecoins, which represent the "ChatGPT moment" for $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ . Wall Street has suddenly realized that simply tokenizing the US dollar can generate enormous profits. Financial institutions now widely believe that tokenization will transform the entire financial industry, with even Blackrock CEO Larry Fink calling it "the greatest and most exciting invention since double-entry bookkeeping."
He further pointed out that what Larry Fink referred to as 'the beginning of the tokenization of all assets' unlocks value far beyond what people imagine. Tokenization offers five key advantages: fractional ownership, cost reduction, 24/7 global trading, greater transparency, and theoretically better liquidity.
This is just the foundational aspect. Most people understand tokenization as merely the simple division of assets, but the real revolution lies in the second approach: 'factorizing' the future value of businesses.
Take $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ as an example. It can be split and tokenized across multiple dimensions:
Tokenization by time: purchasing the net present value of Tesla's earnings in a specific year (e.g., 2036).
Tokenization of products: Buy the future value of specific product lines (e.g., electric vehicles, autonomous driving, Optimus robots).
Geographic tokenization: Purchasing future earnings of specific regions such as its market in China.
Financial statement tokenization: Purchasing tokenized portions of its subscription revenue.
Founder value tokenization: It is even possible to carve out and trade the market’s valuation of Elon Musk himself.
This approach will unleash tremendous value, and BitMine is actively seeking and promoting projects in this field.
Tom Lee firmly believes that the golden age of cryptocurrencies has not passed and that the potential for future growth is enormous. He explained that currently, there are only 4.4 million Bitcoin wallets globally holding more than $10,000 worth of Bitcoin. In comparison, nearly 900 million retirement accounts worldwide hold over $10,000. If all these accounts were to allocate funds to Bitcoin, it would imply a 200-fold increase in adoption. A Bank of America survey shows that 67% of fund managers still have zero allocation to Bitcoin. Wall Street aims to tokenize all financial products, and if real estate is included, this represents a market close to quadrillions of dollars. Therefore, the best era for cryptocurrencies lies ahead.
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, and it will reach a new high in January next year.
Despite being optimistic about the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies, Tom Lee admitted that the current performance of the crypto market resembles a 'crypto winter,' in stark contrast to traditional assets. Gold has risen by 61% so far this year, and the S&P 500 index has increased by nearly 20%, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown negative returns. Jeff Dorman of Arca wrote an article with a fitting title: 'The Selloff No One Can Explain.'
He further pointed out that the turning point for Bitcoin occurred on October 10. Prior to this, Bitcoin had risen by 36% year-to-date, but subsequently entered a continuous decline. There are many explanations circulating in the market: quantum computing risks, the four-year cycle theory, a historic liquidation event on October 10, diversion of attention to AI stocks, $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ rumors of potential Bitcoin sales, the possibility of MSCI excluding digital asset custodian companies from its indices, and the downgrade of Tether's rating, among others.
However, Tom Lee believes that this is closely related to deleveraging. After the collapse of FTX, it took the market eight weeks to restore price discovery. From the liquidation event on October 10th to now, seven and a half weeks have passed, nearing the price recovery period.
To more accurately assess the market, Tom Lee revealed that Fundstrat hired legendary market timing expert Tom DeMark, and based on his advice, significantly slowed Ethereum purchases, halving weekly purchases to 50,000 tokens. However, BitMine has recently resumed increasing its holdings, purchasing nearly 100,000 ETH last week, double the amount from the previous two weeks. This week’s purchases were even higher, as they believe Ethereum prices have bottomed out.
Moreover, Tom Lee also discussed the “four-year Bitcoin cycle” that troubles everyone. He pointed out that historically, it has accurately predicted tops and bottoms three times, with mainstream explanations often linking to halving cycles and monetary policy. However, the Fundstrat team found that two indicators—"copper-to-gold ratio" and "ISM Manufacturing Index" (representing traditional economic cycles)—show an even stronger correlation with the Bitcoin cycle.
According to Tom Lee, in the past, both the copper-to-gold ratio (a measure of industrial activity against monetary base) and the ISM Index exhibited a four-year cycle highly correlated with Bitcoin prices. However, this time, neither of these metrics followed the four-year cycle. The copper-to-gold ratio was supposed to peak this year but did not, and the ISM Index remained below 50 for nearly three and a half years without peaking.
Therefore, he believes that since the industrial cycle and copper-to-gold ratio cycle driving Bitcoin cycles have both failed, there is no reason to believe Bitcoin should still follow a four-year cycle. However, he does not think Bitcoin prices have peaked and is willing to bet: Bitcoin will reach new highs by January next year.
Ethereum is experiencing its '1971 Moment,' severely undervalued due to fundamental logic.
"Ethereum in 2025 is experiencing its own '1971 moment.'" Tom Lee pointed out in his speech that just as Wall Street created countless financial products at the time to maintain the reserve status of the US dollar, today, Ethereum has become the preferred platform for Wall Street amid the tokenization wave of all assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate.
Tom Lee cited the perspective of early Bitcoin developer Eric Voorhees, pointing out that 'Ethereum has already won the smart contract war.' He noted that nearly all major financial institutions are building products on Ethereum, with the vast majority of RWA tokenization initiatives emerging on this platform. Under the narrative of tokenization, Ethereum's utility value is rapidly increasing. Additionally, Ethereum itself continues to undergo upgrades, including the recent completion of the Fusaka upgrade. From a price chart perspective, Ethereum has started to break out after five years of consolidation, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is also poised for a breakout.
Moreover, as a PoS blockchain, Tom Lee believes that Ethereum treasury companies are gradually changing the traditional role of Wall Street. These companies are essentially crypto infrastructure businesses, providing security to the network by staking Ethereum while earning staking rewards as a source of income. At the same time, treasury companies act as a bridge between traditional finance and DeFi, promoting the integration and development of both. The key measure of the success of such companies is their stock liquidity.
$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ It is now the 17th most actively traded stock in the U.S. equity market, with a daily trading volume of nearly $4 billion, surpassing $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 。
$Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ Despite being established only three to four months ago, it has become the 39th most actively traded stock in the U.S. equity market, with a daily trading volume reaching $1.5 billion. Its trading volume has already exceeded that of companies with market capitalizations 30 times larger, $General Electric (GE.FTOLD.US)$ and is approaching that of Salesforce, whose market capitalization is 20 times larger.
Currently, Strategy and BitMine account for 92% of the total trading volume of all crypto treasury companies. Strategy's approach is to become a "digital credit instrument," while BitMine's strategy is to connect Wall Street, Ethereum, and DeFi.
Based on this, Tom Lee provided the following assessment through a price forecasting model:
Assuming Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in the coming months.
If the ETH/BTC exchange rate returns to its eight-year average, the price of Ethereum would be $12,000.
If it returns to the 2021 peak, the price would reach $22,000.
And if Ethereum truly becomes the financial payment rail of the future and the exchange rate reaches 0.25, the price of Ethereum could soar to $62,000.
Therefore, he believes that Ethereum’s current price of $3,000 is significantly undervalued.
Community Q&A
During the community Q&A session, Tom Lee explored the decisive impact of the macro environment on cryptocurrencies, Ethereum’s fundamental value in the era of tokenization, and BitMine’s role within this context, while offering his bold price prediction for the end of 2026.
Host: How do macro factors such as monetary policy or regulation truly influence the long-term adoption and popularization of cryptocurrencies beyond just affecting their prices?
Tom Lee: Macro factors are absolutely critical. Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller once said that 80% of an investment's success depends on the macro environment. This means that no matter how thoroughly you research a project or how accurate your judgment is, that only accounts for 20% of the outcome.
Why is this the case? Because cryptocurrencies do not exist in a vacuum; they are deeply influenced by the macro environment. For example:
Regulatory risk: This is the most direct factor. A single policy decision can determine the survival of a project or even an entire sector.
Monetary Policy: Whether the Federal Reserve eases or tightens directly affects global liquidity. When there is more liquidity, assets like gold and Bitcoin naturally tend to rise more easily.
Market Sentiment: Price itself drives sentiment. The price decline after October 10th caused market sentiment to collapse rapidly, with pessimism reaching levels comparable to the deep bear market of 2018.
Therefore, succeeding in the crypto world without understanding macroeconomics is almost impossible.
Host: There is a common question in the community: In the future, when banks and other financial institutions use Ethereum, will they really need to hold ETH? Or will they simply utilize Ethereum's technology, similar to how we use the Linux system without needing to hold shares in the company behind Linux?
Tom Lee: This is an excellent question and touches directly on a core debate about Ethereum's future. Many people indeed believe that Wall Street will only treat Ethereum as a free and useful technical infrastructure (Layer 2) without caring about the ETH token itself.
However, I believe this perspective overlooks a fundamental logic of the crypto world, which is the 'fat protocol.' Simply put, more value is captured at the protocol layer (like Ethereum) rather than the application layer.
Let me give a more relatable example: gamers and NVIDIA.
Suppose you are a top-tier gamer proficient in all the hottest games. You realize that all these cool games rely on NVIDIA’s graphics card support. At this point, you have two options:
Spend money within the games to buy skins, props, and other items.
Buy NVIDIA stock while continuing to play games.
The result is obvious: those who choose the latter will become extremely wealthy, as they are investing in the cornerstone of the entire gaming ecosystem.
Banks will view Ethereum in a similar way in the future. When they tokenize trillions of assets and place them on Ethereum, they are essentially betting their entire existence on this neutral blockchain. Their primary concern is whether this cornerstone is 100% secure, stable, and reliable.
Historically, Ethereum is the only mainstream public chain that has achieved long-term 100% stable operation while continuously upgrading. Therefore, to ensure their interests and maintain a voice in network development, these institutions will inevitably participate deeply—whether by staking ETH or directly holding large amounts of ETH. This is akin to how multinational banks must hold US dollars. If someone says, 'All my transactions are settled in US dollars, but I don’t care about the value of the dollar,' wouldn't that sound absurd? Similarly, when everything operates on Ethereum, everyone will care about ETH's performance.
Host: If financial institutions truly begin adopting Ethereum as a financial rail on a large scale, what changes do you foresee in Ethereum's price over the long term? Beyond the obvious answer of 'price increase,' could you provide a deeper analysis?
Tom Lee: To predict Ethereum’s future price, I believe the simplest and most effective method is to benchmark it against Bitcoin. Bitcoin serves as the value anchor of the crypto world; if Bitcoin falls, no project will remain unscathed.
Thus, Ethereum’s value ultimately depends on its valuation relative to Bitcoin. As Ethereum assumes an increasingly central role in the process of financial tokenization, its total network value should logically converge closer to that of Bitcoin. If one day Ethereum's network value equals that of Bitcoin, we could be discussing Ethereum priced at $200,000 per coin.
Host: Given your strong belief in Ethereum’s long-term value and its potential to become a financial cornerstone, what role does a company like BitMine intend to play in this grand future? What are its long-term business objectives?
Tom Lee: We firmly believe that Ethereum is entering an unprecedented 'super cycle.' Bitcoin’s success lies in earning the title of 'digital gold' and becoming a universally recognized store of value. However, the story of the next decade belongs to the 'tokenization of Wall Street assets.'
A key point often overlooked in this narrative is liquidity. If you tokenize an asset but no one trades it, rendering it illiquid, it becomes a failed asset. Hence, Wall Street urgently needs partners in the crypto space who can provide liquidity and understand both traditional finance and crypto. The Ethereum community is technically strong but lacks expertise in serving Wall Street, while Wall Street, though massive, lacks native crypto understanding. BitMine aims to serve as the bridge connecting Wall Street with the Ethereum ecosystem.
We not only hold substantial amounts of Ethereum but, more importantly, leverage our macro perspective and financial resources to build channels of communication and value between traditional finance and DeFi. As Ethereum’s ecosystem grows exponentially, we, as deep participants and builders, will also reap significant rewards.
Host: You mentioned 'translator' and 'bridge,' and you yourself are one of the earliest and most steadfast advocates of cryptocurrencies on Wall Street. We are all very curious—how did you first enter this field? What was the catalyst that made you develop such strong conviction about it?
Tom Lee: It goes back to 2017. At that time, I founded the independent research firm Fundstrat. One day, I happened to see on TV that the price of Bitcoin had risen to $1,000. I immediately recalled 2013, when it was only $70, and my colleagues at JPMorgan had discussed it. But at that time, the mainstream view was that it was merely a tool for black-market transactions.
My intuition told me that nothing rises from $70 to $1,000 without a reason. So, we spent an entire summer researching it. I found that, although I didn’t understand all the technical details, 97% of the price increase could be explained by the 'network effect'—the growth in the number and activity of wallet addresses. It instantly clicked for me: this is a network-value asset!
When I first recommended Bitcoin allocation to clients, I faced significant resistance and even lost several important hedge fund clients. They thought I was crazy for recommending something perceived as having 'no intrinsic value.' During that period, I was filled with passion internally, but my business was suffering, which was extremely difficult.
Then I remembered my early experiences. Before I became a strategist, I studied wireless communications. In the early 1990s, mobile phones were considered 'toys for the rich,' and no one thought they would become widespread; the mainstream view was that they were just supplements to landlines. But back then, in my twenties, I truly felt how much convenience mobile phones brought to my social life.
At that moment, I realized a truth: only young people truly understand new technologies. Older generations tend to judge new things based on their already established lifestyles. Therefore, our ability to understand cryptocurrencies isn’t because we’re particularly smart, but because we didn’t look at them through outdated lenses. Instead, we tried to think from the perspective of younger people.
So, if you’ve been in the crypto world for many years, congratulations—your perseverance is remarkable. But at the same time, stay vigilant and avoid letting your thinking become rigid. What really matters is what people in their twenties are doing now, what they care about. They might be more interested in the social impact of a particular project. What they want to invest in may not be Tesla as a whole, but specifically the 'Optimus robot' future. This is the limitless future that cryptocurrencies will unlock for us.
Host: Tom, you are well-known for your bold market predictions. Can you give us a price forecast for Bitcoin and Ethereum? Let’s set the timeframe for the end of 2026, how does that sound?
Tom Lee: My core judgment is that Bitcoin's four-year cycle will be broken. I believe it will hit a new all-time high in early 2026. If this prediction holds, Bitcoin’s trajectory will increasingly resemble that of U.S. equities. I predict that the U.S. stock market will truly take off in the second half of next year.
Therefore, my forecast is that by the end of 2026, the price of Bitcoin will be around $300,000.
And if Bitcoin reaches that price level, Ethereum's performance will be phenomenal. I think by the end of next year, Ethereum could exceed $20,000.
Host: $300,000 Bitcoin and $20,000 Ethereum! We’re hearing this prediction here first. Tom, we must invite you back next year to see if the prophecy comes true!
Tom Lee: If my prediction is wrong, I might not come back, haha.
Editor/Doris
