Li Zhiqiang, a reporter from the Securities Times
Recently, brokerage stocks rose sharply, and the WIND brokerage index rose more than 7% in two consecutive transactions, especially on Friday, when CITIC rose strongly by the daily limit, with a daily turnover of 19.9 billion yuan, occupying the first place in the turnover of the two cities. The entire brokerage plate had a turnover of nearly 140 billion yuan.Shanxi Securities、Sino-Thai Securities、 China Merchants 、Guojin Securities、 CITIC 、Bank of China Securities、Citic Construction Investment、Zheshang Securities, China Galaxy, Shenwan Hongyuan and so on more than 10 stocks rose by the daily limit, becoming the most profitable tuyere in the short term.
Data show that since 2010, CITIC has risen nearly 20 times, with an average daily turnover of 14.7 billion yuan, including six in December 2014, four in the second half of 2015 and three in 2019. As a bellwether of the bull market, CITIC has repeatedly shown "false signals". For example, in 2010, 2016 and 2018, the daily trading volume was mostly below 10 billion. It is often not sustainable, and it is worth noting that Friday's daily trading volume was the highest since December 2014. CITIC's last limit of more than 20 billion was on December 4, 2014, followed by a big bull market in 2015. Whether the market can be copied this time, we can pay close attention to the great changes in the trading volume of the brokerage plate.
In February 2019, CITIC also had two-day trading limits, which were February 22 and February 25, respectively, with a daily turnover of 8.412 billion yuan and 11.795 billion yuan, respectively.Leading securities firmThe trading volume is much higher than in 2019, and the overall turnover of the sector has successfully exceeded that of 2019, when the highest daily turnover of the brokerage sector was only 120 billion yuan, and most of them remained below 100 billion. From this point of view, the current market is really worth looking forward to.
The Zhongtai Securities report shows that there have also been two waves in history.FinanceThe magnificent simultaneous rise of the plate occurred in the third quarter of 2010 and the fourth quarter of 2014 respectively. In history, the domestic economic environment behind the general rise of the large financial sector is not consistent, but the policy stimulus has become an important catalyst for the market trigger. The outbreak of this round of large financial sector at the end of 2010 is mainly based on the environment of rising domestic inflationary pressure and raising interest rates; at the end of 2014, the outbreak of this round of large financial sector is mainly based on the environment of superimposed interest rate cuts during the continuous downward period of the domestic economy, and financial innovation leads the capital market. The background of this round of market is that there is still downward pressure on the domestic economy, monetary policy continues to be loose, and capital market reform continues to advance; from the perspective of capital data, the most important factors supporting the improvement in stock market liquidity in the near future are the continuous rise in the size of newly issued funds and the continuous inflow of northward funds. As of July 2, there was a net inflow of 135.3 billion northward funds, which has accelerated recently. This year, the issuance of 713.8 billion shares of mixed funds is much larger than that of 476.5 billion yuan for the whole of last year, and there are still more than 100 billion yuan waiting to be built. Looking forward, the supporting effect of funds on the market still exists in the short term. The background of the surge in the big financial sector is more like the end of 2014, which lasts about 1-2 months. From a relative yield point of view, brokerages are better than banks and insurance, and the logic of real estate is obviously different from that of other financial sectors. From a historical point of view, the big financial market is often a short time and a large increase, which is a trading opportunity, worthy of investment attention.
Brokerage stocks welcome another big boost.
According to the news, on July 3, CSC transferred the financing business to China Securities Finance Co., Ltd.Security depositThe rules for the Management and implementation (for trial implementation) and the relevant regulations of the re-financing Business contract shall be amended to abolish the restrictions on the proportion of margin withdrawal for the re-financing business of securities companies.
Guosheng Securities believes that this week, CSC lifted the margin withdrawal limit for securities companies're-financing business. Although the actual release of funds is expected to account for only about 0.4% of the net capital of securities firms, the signal significance is more obvious. Supervision is actively promoting the development of the two financial services.
According to the Zhongtai Securities report, according to the current rules, the CSC has set different levels of margin requirements for the refinancing business of securities companies, with a maximum of 50% and a minimum of 20%. It is expected to improve the efficiency of the use of funds by securities firms and promote the development of refinancing business. As of July 3, the balance of the transfer business was 60.6 billion yuan. By the end of May, the balance of the transfer business was 103.8 billion yuan, the margin amount was 27.2 billion yuan, and the average margin ratio was 27.08%.
Guotai Junan believes that the accommodation rate is an important opportunity cost of financing business or leveraged funds. Historically, whenever the refinancing rate is reduced, it can effectively promote the expansion of the balance of the two financial institutions and the activity of leveraged funds, and the margin of net buying of financing increases. Since May 11, 2020, the conversion rate has been continuously reduced, the 182-day rate has dropped from 3.25% to 2.5%, and the balance of the two financing has increased from 1.0644 trillion yuan to 1.1903 trillion yuan on July 2. On July 3, 2020, the CSC cancels the margin withdrawal restriction on the financing business of securities companies, which is expected to further untie the financing business and promote the financing funds to enter the market.
Foreign investors increase their positions in these securities companies.
Data show that Beijing Capital bought a net 28.862 billion yuan last week, including 17.1 billion yuan on Thursday and 13.1 billion yuan on Friday.
From the capital point of view, the big finance represented by banks, real estate and securities firms was the main direction of northward capital increase last week, and the increased market value of foreign holdings in banks, real estate, brokerage trusts and other sectors increased by nearly 10 billion yuan. Among them, Huatai and Guojin Securities increased their holdings by 487 million yuan and 422 million yuan respectively, while CITIC and Guotai Junan increased their holdings by more than 200 million yuan.Societe Generale SecuritiesThe first undertaking、 Haitong 、Tianfeng Securities, China Galaxy,Soochow SecuritiesIncrease its holdings by more than 100 million yuan.
From the perspective of the increase in the proportion of tradable shares, Guojin Securities,Hongta SecuritiesThe proportion of foreign ownership increased by 1.21% and 1.06% respectively, and that of first Entrepreneurship, Societe Generale Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Huatai and Soochow Securities all increased by more than 0.3%.
Among the banking stocks, China Construction Bank Corporation,Ping an Bank, China Zheshang Bank, Zhengzhou Bank,Yu Nong Commercial Bank、 Bank of Communications 、Bank of Nanjing, Qingdao Bank, China Minsheng Banking Corp,Industrial bankThe proportion of foreign shareholding increased by more than 0.1%, and China Construction Bank Corporation Ping an Bank's shareholding increased the highest, both 0.4%. Relatively speaking, the increase of securities companies' holdings is more obvious.
Financiers run into the arena.
The financing balance of the two cities increased by more than 10 billion yuan for four days in a row. last week, the net financing purchase of the two cities reached 56.2 billion yuan. The financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 606.188 billion yuan, an increase of 6.798 billion yuan over the previous trading day. The financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 560.577 billion yuan, an increase of 4.956 billion yuan over the previous trading day.
Data show that the securities trust sector last Friday had a net purchase of 5.049 billion yuan, ranking first among all sectors, with net purchases of 10.751 billion in the past five trading days, of which CITIC ranked first in net purchases of 2.135 billion yuan in the past five trading days. Everbright Securities, China Merchants, CITIC Construction all have a net purchase of more than 500 million yuan, China Galaxy, GF Securities Co., LTD.,Pacific, Societe Generale Securities, Huatai, Nanjing Securities, Shen Wanhongyuan, first Entrepreneurship,CaiTong SecuritiesThe net purchase amount is more than 300 million yuan.
Institutions pay close attention to the securities plate.
Guotai Junan believes that the seven-day annualized return on Yu'e Bao has fallen from 2.45 per cent to 1.45 per cent since February 2020. The reduction of income expectation directly promotes the asset allocation of the residential sector to tilt to equity assets. This round of higher-than-expected downward risk-free interest rates in the stock market will lead to a double-click in the financial sector by Davis. Brokers just fire the starting gun of investment opportunities brought about by the downside of risk-free interest rates in the stock market, and the downward risk interest rates brought about by the rise in economic and treasury bond yields. The investment logic of the insurance and banking sectors is actually the same as that of securities firms. It is recommended that undervalued brokers with higher self-operating flexibility should increase their holdings (Guojin Securities /Dongxing Securities/ Societe Generale Securities /Northeast Securities), the upward rise in treasury bond yields led to EV valuation repair of insurance stocks (China Pacific Insurance and New China Life Insurance), bank stocks that benefited the most from the asset side and the most flexible valuation (Ping an Bank,Postal Savings Bank of China (H), Industrial Bank andJiangsu Bank）。
Anxin SecuritiesIt is believed that in the securities sector, the valuation of securities firms has been restored to the 2017 level, but the policy environment and market conditions are better than in 2017, and valuations still have room to rise. According to the data of WIND- Shenwan brokerage index PB (MRQ), as of July 3, 2020, the overall valuation of brokerage stocks is 2.06xPB, which is equivalent to the overall valuation of brokerage stocks in 2017. At present, the policy environment and market conditions faced by securities firms are obviously different from those in 2017, and securities stocks are worth higher market value. The current median valuation of brokerages is 1.89xPB, which means that at least half of brokerage stocks are still valued below 2xPB, and if the market situation continues in positive feedback, low-valued brokerage stocks within the sector still have opportunities to make up.
Cinda Securities believes that before the start of the current round of brokerage market, the market attention is very low. However, due to the β attribute of the brokerage plate, once started, it is often accompanied by self-strengthening, the enlargement of trading volume leads to the rapid development of brokerage, financial and financial services, securities firms and other businesses, and further improves the performance-driven valuation. If the commission rate remains the same as the average level in 2019, assuming that the average daily transaction volume reaches 900 billion yuan per day in 2020, it will bring 136 billion yuan of brokerage income to the industry. From the perspective of intermediary business, the scale of the two financial institutions has always been more than one trillion yuan since December 18, 2019. In addition to interest income, because the turnover rate and commission rate of the investors of the two financial institutions are higher than those of ordinary investors, the fee income brought by them is also considerable. It is estimated that the average daily balance of the two financial institutions is 1.2 trillion yuan, and the margin and short selling income of the 2020 industry is 70 billion yuan. In addition, the margin trading system of the Surgical Trading Board has brought an increase in the source of securities, and the margin trading business space has been opened. In the future, market-oriented refinancing coupons will be extended to the stock sector, withGemWith the promotion of the margin trading system and the landing of Science and Technology Innovation Board's margin trading system, the margin lending scale may be further enhanced. Superimposed refinancing cancels the margin withdrawal ratio, which greatly improves the efficiency of securities firms' cash management, which is conducive to the further development of securities firms' refinancing business. After a sharp rise in the plate last week, the current PB valuation CITIC 2x, Haitong 1.3x, Huatai 1.6x, King 1.4x, 2-2.5x from the industry hub, still has a certain margin of safety. It is recommended to pay attention to the head securities firm CITIC, King, Merchants and so on.