TD Securities forecasts that gold prices will reach a new high in 2026, potentially hitting $4,400 per ounce, driven by an increased probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, elevated U.S. debt levels, and investor shifts toward commodity investments;
The institution warns of downside risks for silver, predicting a price decline early next year, with no return to current levels;
It is also optimistic about platinum and palladium, forecasting that these two metals will lead the rise in precious metal prices.
In its 2026 commodities outlook, TD Securities expects gold prices not to plummet next year but instead to set a new record high, while silver prices are projected to retreat to the mid-$40 range.
Additionally, the report forecasts that platinum and palladium will lead the rise in precious metal prices next year.
Gold
Analysts at TD Securities noted that the increasing likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with concerns over the Fed's independence and historically high and growing U.S. debt levels,$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$could reach a new high of $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026.
The international gold price currently remains stable above $4,200 per ounce.
It further added that changes in the U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals will drive the depreciation of the dollar, de-dollarization, and deglobalization, thereby supporting central banks’ significant increase in gold holdings. Additionally, investors are shifting from traditional portfolio structures to asset allocations favoring commodities, which will significantly boost investment demand for gold.
TD Bank believes that gold’s new long-term price range will be between $3,500 and $4,400 per ounce. Factors triggering downside risks mainly include rising prices of U.S. risk assets leading to capital outflows from safe-haven assets or a shift in market sentiment believing that U.S. employment will not weaken and the Fed will not cut rates further.
The firm expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year. Some market participants anticipate a 150-basis-point cut, even though the U.S. inflation rate remains stubbornly above the 2% target level.
silver
At the same time, the institution also warned about$XAG/USD (XAGUSD.FX)$the risks associated with silver. TD Securities pointed out that earlier this year, the market experienced a silver squeeze, but as we enter 2026, a large influx of silver will replenish supplies. Currently, there may be more than 212 million ounces of silver available for free use in London vaults, and the London silver market has already compensated for inventory losses over the past year.
The tightness in Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is a result of the oversupply of silver because, over the past few months, Shanghai has become a major backup for London. Considering that China’s invisible domestic inventories may be several times higher than exchange stocks, the inventory issue at the Shanghai exchange will resolve itself.
The institution's analysts further emphasized that trading volumes for spot silver have also significantly declined, dropping 65% from the October peak. Meanwhile, ETF volatility has exceeded Comex volatility, indicating that speculative demand over the past few months has significantly outpaced basis trading.
Another risk worrying the market — the United States imposing tariff measures on silver — is, in the view of TD Securities, not a significant concern because the trend of hoarding silver has already ended. Tariffs could still impact silver prices, but the market is facing challenges such as rising silver inventories and weakening industrial demand.
The institution forecasts that silver prices will decline early next year and will struggle to return to current levels.
Platinum group metals
Contrary to mainstream views, TD Securities also believes that platinum and palladium will experience strong gains next year.
The market generally believes that the peak of the internal combustion engine market will weaken demand for autocatalysts, and an upcoming surge in scrap supply will narrow the anticipated deficit for platinum group metals, potentially even leading to a slight surplus.
However, research from TD Securities shows that strong growth in North American automotive demand, coupled with small changes in vehicle ownership rates, could lead to significant fluctuations in auto sales and platinum group metal demand. A difference of 2% in annual vehicle ownership rates — whether declining or increasing — could result in swings of 420,000 ounces for platinum demand and 1.7 million ounces for palladium demand.
The institution expects a 0.9% increase in U.S. vehicle ownership rates, driving demand for platinum group metals, while the anticipated boom in scrap supply will be delayed until 2027. Under this scenario, the supply deficit for platinum group metals will continue to widen.
Moreover, TD Securities believes that the likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on platinum group metals is much higher than on silver. Therefore, platinum and palladium may also experience short squeezes similar to what occurred in the silver market this year. This risk is currently particularly underestimated in the palladium market.
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