According to incomplete statistics by the Cailian Press, nearly 20 brands have opted to 'subsidize purchase taxes out of their own pockets' for customers who have placed orders within the year.
The domestic automobile market in 2026 will face significant challenges, with a large number of orders being brought forward to the fourth quarter of this year.
As 2025 draws to a close and 2026 approaches, the domestic auto market is witnessing a wave of 'order-grabbing' enthusiasm driven by factors such as adjustments to purchase tax policies and the early release of orders for next year.
On December 4th, Deep Blue Auto introduced a purchase tax 'guarantee' policy. Specifically, if customers lock in orders for all Deep Blue models before December 31, 2025, and due to reasons not attributable to the customer, the vehicles are invoiced and delivered in 2026 but picked up before February 14, 2026 (inclusive), they will be eligible for Deep Blue’s cross-year purchase tax differential subsidy.
In addition to Deep Blue Auto, several other automakers also unveiled similar purchase tax 'guarantee' policies in early December.
$GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$It was announced that the year-end tax subsidy policy for GAC Haotuo, GAC Trumpchi, and GAC Aion will be extended until the end of the year. The specific details are as follows: For vehicles purchased in 2025, if delays in production or transportation by GAC (not due to customer reasons) result in invoicing and payment occurring before February 14, 2026, GAC will compensate for the price difference based on the 2025 tax rate, with a maximum subsidy of RMB 15,000.
HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility, which achieved new sales highs in November, also launched its latest purchase tax subsidy program. For all Wentai, Zhiwei, Xiangjie, Zunjie, and Shangjie models, customers who complete final order locks before 24:00 on December 31, 2025, and experience delays in vehicle delivery due to non-customer-related issues, resulting in invoicing and delivery occurring in 2026, will qualify for a cross-year purchase tax subsidy plan, capped at RMB 15,000 (or RMB 9,000 for Shangjie H5).
According to incomplete statistics by the Cailian Press, nearly 20 brands have opted to 'subsidize purchase taxes out of their own pockets' for customers who have placed orders within the year, including additional brands beyond those previously mentioned.$CHERY AUTO (09973.HK)$、$ZEEKR (ZK.US)$、$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$、$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$, GAC Toyota, etc.
The surge in purchase tax guarantees by automakers can be attributed to the upcoming adjustment of the vehicle purchase tax policy in 2026. Based on the 'Announcement on Extending and Optimizing the Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction Policy for New Energy Vehicles' issued two years ago, following two consecutive years of full exemption from purchase tax for new energy vehicles in 2024 and 2025, the subsequent two years will see a halving of the purchase tax, with reductions capped at RMB 15,000 per new energy passenger vehicle.
Industry insiders have analyzed that it is widely anticipated that the domestic auto market will come under pressure in the first quarter of 2026. Automakers’ current measures are a preemptive response. 'Apart from the adjustment of purchase tax from full exemption to halving starting next year, many carmakers setting the deadline for this round of 'guarantee' policies at February 14, 2026, aims to shift some orders to the first quarter of next year to ensure a smooth transition.'
From the perspective of industry associations and securities firms, the domestic auto market will face considerable challenges in 2026, with a large number of orders expected to be released in the fourth quarter of this year.
The year-end upsurge driven by the expiration of full tax exemptions for new energy vehicles and the nearing conclusion of dual-new policies has not been particularly significant. In forecasting November auto market performance, the China Automobile Dealers Association stated that the market has entered its annual sprint phase, with an overall trend of starting low and ending high. Market performance in the first half of the month was relatively subdued, mainly due to the earlier consumption surge during the 'Golden September, Silver October' period, which brought forward some latent car purchasing demand. Additionally, more new energy vehicle manufacturers have joined the initiative to guarantee tax exemptions for new models early next year, somewhat delaying purchases by some consumers. 'The tightening of trade-in and scrappage subsidy policies in certain regions has further intensified consumer hesitancy.'
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Federation, believes that the auto market will likely maintain steady growth momentum in the fourth quarter this year, supported by policy guidance and a foundation of high growth. 'The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 (from full exemption to a 50% reduction) will stimulate consumers to make concentrated purchases before the end of the year. Combined with the peak season of 'Silver September, Golden October' and year-end sales pushes by automakers, the dual drivers of new energy vehicles and exports will be further strengthened. Upgrades in smart and connected technology and improved market order brought about by efforts to counter domestic over-competition will also bolster consumer confidence, with expectations of a small positive growth in the fourth quarter.'
Gong Min, Head of China Automotive Industry Research at UBS Group, recently published an automotive industry report predicting that the domestic auto sector will face potential changes in 2026, including a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles (NEVs), as well as adjustments to scrappage and trade-in subsidies. Based on the baseline scenario where the 5% purchase tax is implemented as planned and scrappage subsidies are partially extended, UBS forecasts that passenger car wholesale growth will slow from 11% in 2025 to 3% in 2026, while NEV growth will decline from 28% to 15%.
Editor/melody
