Overview of Key Events This Week
In the lead-up to December's interest rate decision meeting, there is a lack of key data; figures such as the 'ADP employment report' and PCE are receiving significant attention.
The economic data released this week will cover employment figures, manufacturing and services activity, and consumer confidence indices. Investors will be eager to glean insights on the economic backdrop from these reports, as well as early indications of consumer spending trends following the 'Black Friday' event. Due to a 43-day partial government shutdown earlier, some reports that markets rely on to gauge economic health were delayed or canceled, leaving the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 interest rate decision meeting without critical data. As a result, this week's releases will be closely scrutinized.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November will be released on Monday. According to the ISM survey, U.S. manufacturing has been in contraction since March due to tariff-related uncertainties and possible retaliatory actions by international buyers against American goods.
Wednesday's ADP employment report, often referred to as the 'mini nonfarm payroll,' will be closely watched. With the official November nonfarm payroll report scheduled for release on December 16, and October's report having been canceled, the ADP private-sector employment survey will offer crucial updates on the labor market. The ADP report showed that 42,000 jobs were added in October, exceeding expectations. Similar to the ISM PMI data, any unexpected deviation in either direction poses symmetric risks to easing expectations and the U.S. dollar.
On Friday, attention will shift to September's PCE inflation and personal consumption indicators. Although the Federal Reserve is keen to see November's data (release date yet to be confirmed), the September report will still attract focus. Markets expect the headline PCE for September to edge up slightly year-over-year from 2.7% to 2.8%, while the core PCE price index, a crucial metric, is anticipated to remain unchanged at 2.9% year-over-year.
Other data releases will include Thursday’s Challenger job cuts report and initial jobless claims, as well as Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
Federal Reserve Enters Pre-Meeting Blackout Period
This week, the Federal Reserve will enter its pre-meeting blackout period (the ten days preceding the interest rate decision meeting). On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks at a commemorative event. However, given that the event falls within the blackout period, Powell is unlikely to make any significant statements regarding monetary policy. Additionally, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will testify before a House committee on Tuesday and speak on bank supervision on Friday.
NVIDIA to Attend UBS Group Global Technology and AI Conference
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ On December 2, attendance is scheduled at the UBS Global Technology and Artificial Intelligence Conference. The UBS Global Technology and Artificial Intelligence Conference will be held this week in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology. Senior executives from multiple technology companies will participate in discussions.
Cloud and data giants face a critical test! Salesforce and Snowflake to release earnings.
In terms of earnings reports, the main focus is on two major cloud service giants. $Salesforce (CRM.US)$and $Snowflake (SNOW.US)$As the pioneer of the SaaS model, Salesforce has pushed its operating margin to a historical high through cost control, and the market is now awaiting new growth catalysts from the monetization progress of its AI products. Although its data cloud and AI businesses are growing rapidly, it remains uncertain whether they can become the core engine driving a return to double-digit growth for a business with a scale of tens of billions of dollars. Meanwhile, Snowflake shattered market concerns about 'slowing growth' with strong results last quarter and raised its full-year guidance. Can this earnings report continue its success?
At the same time, semiconductor representatives $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$Earnings are set to be released this week as a key participant in the AI chip sector, excluding $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, with its developments in customized chips and data center networking drawing significant attention. Additionally, retail stocks such as $Macy's (M.US)$ 、$The Kroger Co. (KR.US)$will also release their earnings results.
China’s November RatingDog Manufacturing PMI is set for release
On Monday, China will release its November RatingDog Manufacturing PMI. The index has remained above the 50-point threshold for three consecutive months, with October recording 50.6, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace due to weakening new business and output momentum. The market is closely monitoring the sustainability of the current recovery trend.
Will Japan raise interest rates in December? Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to deliver a speech.
On Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech in Nagoya, which the market will scrutinize for the latest assessment on the prospects of spring wage negotiations and underlying inflation trends. In its latest weekly report on November 29, Nomura Securities' research team explicitly noted that the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December had rebounded significantly from less than 20% last week to over 50%.
Nomura Securities is focusing on two key points: First, the latest evaluation of the spring wage negotiations. This was a key phrase used by Ueda during the press conference following the October meeting, and related comments are crucial for assessing the timing of the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike. If he makes positive remarks about the spring wage increase, the market is likely to interpret it as a signal of a December rate hike. The second point is the latest view on Japan's underlying inflation. If Ueda upgrades his assessment of underlying inflation (i.e., suggesting it is closer to 2% than previously thought), the market will consider it a hawkish statement.
US-Russia Talks to Be Held in Moscow This Week
On November 27 local time, Russian President Putin confirmed in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, that a US delegation would visit Moscow during the week of December 1. Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the US-proposed list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations. Putin stated that, at this stage, negotiations with Ukraine’s current leadership hold no practical significance.
Key earnings calendar for the new week
[Related Reading]Cloud and Data Giants Face Key Validation! Salesforce and Snowflake to Release Results; Weekly Earnings Recap (Dec. 1–Dec. 5)
Monday (December 1)
Keywords: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Bank of Japan Governor Speech
In terms of economic data, China’s November RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, the US November ISM Manufacturing PMI, and other data will be released.
09:45 China November RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
22:45 US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
23:00 US November ISM Manufacturing PMI
In terms of financial events, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech in Nagoya, central Japan.
Tuesday (December 02)
Keywords: CrowdStrike/Marvell Technology earnings reports, remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Regarding earnings reports, $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ 、 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ Companies such as will release their latest quarterly earnings reports after the US stock market closes.
In terms of economic events, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at a commemorative event, and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will testify before the House Committee.
In terms of Hong Kong stock IPOs, $JINYAN KAOLIN (02693.HK)$ 、 $LEMO SERVICES (02539.HK)$ The grey market trading will commence today.
Wednesday (December 3rd)
Keywords: US 'small non-farm payroll' ADP employment numbers, Salesforce/Snowflake earnings reports, Golden Rock Kaolin New Materials/Lemo Technology IPOs
In terms of economic data, the US November 'small non-farm payroll' ADP employment numbers will be released today; China's November RatingDog Services PMI, the US September import price index month-over-month, the US September industrial production month-over-month, the final value of S&P Global Services PMI for November, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November will be published.
09:45 China November RatingDog Services PMI
21:15 US November ADP Employment Change
21:30 US September Import Price Index MoM
22:15 US September Industrial Production MoM
22:45 US November S&P Global Services PMI Final
23:00 US November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks for the week ending November 28
Regarding earnings reports, $Macy's (M.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings report before the US stock market opens.$Salesforce (CRM.US)$ 、 $Snowflake (SNOW.US)$ Companies such as [placeholder] will announce their latest quarterly earnings after the US stock market closes.
In terms of Hong Kong stock IPOs, $JINYAN KAOLIN (02693.HK)$ 、 $LEMO SERVICES (02539.HK)$ It will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.
Thursday (December 4th)
Keywords: Number of layoffs by Challenger enterprises in the U.S., Initial jobless claims in the U.S.
In terms of economic data, figures including the number of layoffs by Challenger enterprises in November, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29, and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for November will be released.
20:30 Number of layoffs by Challenger enterprises in the U.S. for November
21:30 Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 29
23:00 Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for November in the U.S.
23:30 EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending November 28 in the U.S.
In terms of Hong Kong stock IPOs, $TIANYU SEMI (02658.HK)$ 、 $XIAO NOODLES (02408.HK)$ The grey market trading will commence today.
Friday (December 5th)
Keywords: U.S. Core PCE Price Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Meet Noodle/Tianyu Semiconductor IPO
In terms of economic data, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December, the initial one-year inflation expectation, the annual rate of the Core PCE Price Index for September, and the monthly rate of personal spending in the U.S. will be released today.
23:00 U.S. One-Year Inflation Expectation Initial Estimate for December
23:00 Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December
23:00 Annual Rate of U.S. Core PCE Price Index for September
23:00 Monthly Rate of U.S. Personal Spending for September
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech on bank supervision.
In terms of Hong Kong stock IPOs, $TIANYU SEMI (02658.HK)$ 、 $XIAO NOODLES (02408.HK)$ will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today; $ABLE DIGITAL (02687.HK)$ 、 $NOVOSENSE (02676.HK)$ The grey market trading will commence today.
Stay ahead with the latest financial updates and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunity!
In the new week, I wish fellow investors successful investments!
Editor/jayden
