In fact, today's market is developing towards a balanced pattern, which makes the downward space of the whole index limited.

Of course, if the index wants to continue to rise, then these varieties on the floor must improve, otherwise even if the attack is not stable.

Today, the varieties on these floors are beginning to change, especially those three miserable industries, on the other hand, if these plates are just an one-day tour, then sorry 3000 points must not be soldered.

Therefore, at this time, the next six months will be more critical.

1

For things with high valuations, I think we can reduce the positions to their own comfortable position, but there is no need to clear them immediately.

High valuationIn the final analysis, it is a premium for its scarcity, and any company that has a premium (overvalued) is because of the scarcity of one of its features.

In other words, our standard of clearance is not defined by overestimation or underestimation, but should beThe person who cleared the stock isStocks that have no scarcity of their own are only sought after by the market as high valuations.

And because of that, I always sayHighly valued companies test the depth and breadth of your research for investors.The reason is very simple, and other undervalued industries are different, other industries at least have a valuation handrail, no matter how rubbish, after all, the valuation is low, and then fall also have a bottom line, but for high valuation industries, their valuation handrails basically do not have, you must think deeply about the company's future development prospects, competition pattern, industrial logic, these are far more important than valuation.

Therefore, for some friends in the car, I hope you will think clearly whether the company itself has some kind of scarcity worthy of such a high valuation, such as the scarcity of the track, the scarcity of the business model, the scarcity of the brand, the scarcity of the competitive landscape. If not, it is not recommended to hold it for a long time.

There will certainly be adjustments for high valuations, but the more they adjust, the more they test companies that are not good enough.

2

The hardest thing this year is the friends of the companies that bought the traditional track, such as the blue-chip white horse stocks that people scold the most.

In fact, there has always been a phenomenon in the stock market, that is,Survivorship biasIn our thinking, when we look at problems, we only like to look at individual examples, such as grabbing the lottery, winning 5 million in XXX, thinking that we can also win, you go to the bookstore, the best-selling book is that the success of XXX can be copied and so on.

These are all individual cases, all of them.Survivorship biasHowever, our stock market is a group. There are nearly 200 million investors in our country. It must be biased when you use individual standards to measure groups.

Let me tell you how this year's sad mentality came into being. in the final analysis, there are only a few industries that have increased well this year, such as consumption, medicine, science and technology, and so on. Almost 70% to 80% of the industries are in stagflation or non-rising stages.

Well, there are nearly 200 million shareholders in our country. Of these 200 million investors, no matter what genre they are, there must be many people investing in these industries. If not 100 million, there must be 10 to 20 million. This is a question of probability.

Ok, these are the people who made some money this year, and then began to talk about how much they earned this year in various groups and chatting with friends around them, because we Chinese have good face and show off with others only when we have made money. Just come and go. All you hear is the news that other people are making money.

On the other hand, people who lose money or do not earn much will never go around and tell others that they are all quietly, so it is like a funnel, and the information filtered by your ears is about how much money others have earned.

Of course, I am not saying that these people are bad, because this is a common feature of our human beings. we all like to show our good side to everyone and hide the bad side.

This is the survivor bias. Even if only 10 people in a WeChat group of 500 people make money, then as long as these 10 people post their earnings once a week, the remaining 490 people will feel bad and think everyone has made a lot of money.

After today's rally, the median of overall stock volatility in the market this year is basically flat. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen and fallen as follows:-0.79%Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has risen and fallen as follows:3.69%Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has risen and fallen as follows:-1.74%. More of us should take the group standard as the reference, rather than use the case under the large sample.

"I don't believe you can leave a message in the message area later. Let's do some statistics. "

Therefore, instead of saying that people who have bought these industries are annoyed, angry and sad, it is better to say so.People's mindset comes from the fact that you are inferior to others.As a matter of fact, it is your inner mind that does not admit defeat.

3

The stock market is the stock market, is a place to magnify human nature, the rise or fall of stock prices people always like to find reasons to explain.

We can only see that the Shanghai airport has increased eightfold in six years, but we have not seen that the Shanghai airport fluctuated sideways for three years before the rise. Guizhou Moutai not only did not rise but also fell nearly in 18 years.40%Now, looking back, more people can only pat their thighs. Don't get angry. You can't grasp it if you give you another chance. Friends with a little memory will know that the negative news in Maotai at that time was no more peaceful than it is now, or even extremely pessimistic.

Take the banking industry, which is most and least liked by everyone, for example, there are times when it is very popular.

Every time the market says that this time is different, the future will be better / worse, but it will be the same every time.

What is different is the change in the size of "expectations" in different periods, and the same is that no matter how crazy the market pricing is, it must be anchored by the intrinsic value of the company.

I said this in the community yesterday: for some companies, understanding industrial logic, corporate cycle, and business attributes is much more important than simple valuation, while for some companies, valuation is more important, such as the blue-chip white horse on the market. The two directions are not the same.But they can all make a lot of money.It's just that the former earns performance-driven, company growth or reversal money, while the latter earns excess returns when valuations are compressed to the extreme, provided you have enough cheap chips.

In these two directions, you should think clearly about what you are suitable for. Don't jump back and forth, chase back and forth, you will earn money from your power circle. If everyone broadens their horizons a little bit, ah, and return to the Chinese stock market in the past few decades, whether it is consumer medicine, blue-chip white horses, or new industries such as technology, they all have the most glorious times, but also the most lonely times.

If you are blind and barren, you are likely to end up going against the market.

4

The title of today's article isThe market has changed, spring is coming.In fact, it is not to encourage you, but I am telling the truth.

First of all, what do you think would happen in the first half of this year if it were not for this epidemic? We dare not say how good it is, but we can be sure that it must be better than it is now. The sudden outbreak of the epidemic has disrupted the whole optimistic 2020. Therefore, if you are careful, you should find that behind the big rise in the overvalued value is actually the industries benefiting from the epidemic, or the industries that have less impact. Furthermore, the smaller impact of the epidemic on them has in turn become the market's."scarcity"。

The epidemic has dealt a heavy blow to most industries, which have barely broken through their pre-epidemic highs. What is reflected in this is actually expectation.

On the other hand, it is because we have also said that if the index wants to rise, it is certainly not enough to rely on these 30% or so high valuation sectors, more of which requires the joint efforts of the remaining 70% of industries / companies.

Finally, the latest PMI data released, the data is still higher than expected, in recent months macroeconomic data frequently exceeded expectations, macro things we can not say why, but at least we can see that the economic recovery is going on steadily, under such expectations, the index will not plummet.

Of course, it is normal to have shocks and pullbacks next, and even go back below 3000 points. I think it is reasonable to drop a few hundred points, but if you look at it for a long time, the first half of this year is definitely the best time to get chips.

Let's wait for the rose of time ~