Source: decrypt
Author: Jason Nelson
Editor: Deloris
Saudi Arabia has joined the global quantum computing race.
Saudi Aramco, a government-controlled energy and chemical enterprise, announced on Monday that it had installed the first quantum computer in Saudi Arabia, further intensifying the growing security concerns surrounding Bitcoin and other blockchain networks.
Saudi Aramco stated that this 200-qubit computer, manufactured by the French neutral-atom quantum computing company Pasqal, has been installed at its proprietary Dhahran data center, which is specifically designed for industrial applications such as energy modeling and material research.
Pasqal noted that this is the most powerful system it has delivered to date. The qubit serves as the fundamental unit of quantum computers.
Loïc Henriet, CEO of Pasqal, stated in a press release: 'Deploying our most powerful quantum computer to date is historically significant and marks a milestone for the quantum future of the Middle East. Pasqal continues to expand its footprint, providing practical quantum computing capabilities to the industrial sector.' This move places Saudi Arabia alongside countries such as the United States, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, and Canada—all of which have funded national quantum initiatives aimed at expanding research infrastructure and cultivating talent for future fault-tolerant systems.
Quantum computing appears to be progressing faster than anticipated. In a blog post on November 13, Scott Aaronson (the Schlumberger Centennial Chair of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin) wrote that, 'given the current astonishing pace of hardware development,' it is 'quite possible' to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running Shor's algorithm before the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
Experts warn that once quantum computers become powerful enough to break encryption systems, they could expose private keys or forge signatures, enabling attackers to steal funds or undermine privacy protection mechanisms.
In fact, this is also an issue of particular concern to crypto practitioners. On November 17, at the Devconnect conference held in Argentina, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned during a speech on the Ethereum roadmap that quantum computing could threaten the foundation of the crypto field—elliptic curve cryptography.
But the question is, is this a serious threat or a blind attempt?
Auh, founder of Bolt Technology, stated that with the repeated leaps in quantum computing technology, its rapid development has forced the security community to face this threat head-on.
He remarked, "With such massive investment and capital inflow, breakthroughs will eventually come. Although no one knows the exact timeline, the threat is no longer theoretical. Despite current technologies still being unable to crack Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) or RSA algorithms, progress continues to advance steadily."
Auh noted that the motivations for investment at the national level are not limited to the field of cryptanalysis.
"Quantum computing is the first technology that could become a global digital weapon not controlled by any political system," he pointed out.
However, there is still a long way to go before cracking Bitcoin.
According to research scientist Ian McCormack, a 200-qubit system is relatively small in practical applications because current machines are constrained by noise and short coherence times, limiting the number of operations that can be performed.
"A 200-qubit system is sufficient for some interesting experiments and demonstrations—provided the qubits are of high enough quality—but even achieving this with so few qubits remains challenging. However, this is far from sufficient for error-corrected computations, which are necessary to execute Shor's Algorithm." He explained that this quantum algorithm is used to solve integer factorization.
In September, researchers at Caltech announced a neutral atom system with 6,000 qubits.
However, even machines of this scale are still used for research, simulation, and algorithm development rather than for attacking cryptography.
Eli Batta, a graduate student at Caltech, stated, 'What you need is very long coherence times, much longer than your operation duration. If your operation time is one microsecond and your coherence time is one second, that means you can perform approximately a million operations.'
Researchers have indicated that to pose a threat to modern cryptography, thousands of error-corrected logical qubits—equivalent to millions of physical qubits—are required.
Although the Pasqal system has not altered current blockchain security, it has reignited attention on a long-term risk known as “Q-Day,” the moment when quantum computers become powerful enough to derive private keys from public keys and forge digital signatures.
The concern is that this capability would not only undermine the encryption techniques used by Bitcoin but also compromise many of the security systems underpinning the global economy.
“What quantum computers can do—and this is highly relevant to Bitcoin—is forge the digital signatures currently used by Bitcoin,” said Justin Taylor, a research partner at Andreessen Horowitz and an associate professor at Georgetown University. “Someone with a quantum computer could authorize a transaction that drains all the Bitcoin from your account without your permission. That’s the most terrifying aspect.”
Today’s most advanced processors, such as the 200-qubit Pasqal machine and Google’s 105-qubit Willow chip, remain far below the threshold needed for attacks.
“There is a significant probability (over 5%) that quantum computing poses a major, even existential, long-term risk to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” noted Christopher Peikert, a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Michigan. “But in the coming years, this is unlikely to constitute a real risk; quantum computing technology still has a long way to go before it threatens modern cryptography.”
Compared to the distant threat of quantum computing, the near-term challenges facing Bitcoin are far more pressing.
The market continues to deteriorate. Last Friday, the price of Bitcoin plummeted again, dropping to $82,000. Although it has slightly recovered now, reaching only $87,000, it has fallen nearly 30% from its all-time high.
More notably, based on market reactions, this decline may continue. Capital outflows are ongoing. In terms of ETFs, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced an outflow of $3.5 billion in November, marking the largest single-day outflow since February. "This indicates that institutional investors have ceased allocating funds to Bitcoin," said Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of 10X Research. "ETF institutions have turned into sellers, and as long as they keep selling, I believe it will be difficult for the market to sustain a rise or rebound."
Crypto treasury companies that heavily rely on currency value growth are showing even clearer signs of retreat. According to a report by the Financial Times, as the cryptocurrency market suffers significant losses, companies that once aggressively accumulated crypto assets to bolster their treasuries are now facing dual pressures from falling stock prices and declining coin values. To support their plummeting share prices, these firms are being forced to sell their digital tokens. FG Nexus, an Ethereum holder based in North Carolina, recently sold approximately $41.5 million worth of tokens to fund its stock buyback program. The company’s market capitalization stands at $104 million, lower than its holdings of $116 million in crypto assets. ETHZilla, a life sciences company in Florida, also sold around $40 million worth of tokens for stock repurchases.
Retail investors are also adopting a defensive stance. Data released by Santiment indicates that since November 11, the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoins has increased by 0.47% (91 wallets). Meanwhile, the number of smaller wallets, especially those holding 0.1 Bitcoin or less, has been decreasing.
Of course, there are some optimistic signals; the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is taking on a more "dovish" tone. According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 15.1%. By January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 66.4%, with a 11.1% chance of no change, and a 22.6% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut.
With various factors intertwined, market forecasts are becoming increasingly challenging. However, traders generally believe that the market is entering a consolidation phase, with $90,000 emerging as a critical threshold.
Beimnet Abebe, head of credit trading at Galaxy Digital, stated that he believes the peak of this cycle has likely been established. It will be difficult for prices to return to the $120,000–$125,000 range in the short term. For now, the $90,000 level is expected to pose significant resistance.
Omkar Godbole, an analyst at Coindesk, noted that the first resistance level Bitcoin needs to watch is the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA), currently near $88,000. Since Monday, this level has acted as a barrier to upward price movement, limiting gains. The next key resistance zone lies between $98,000 and $99,000, an area that formed intraday lows earlier this month and in June.
Furthermore, the most critical support level is around $83,680, where the 100-week SMA intersects with the macro bullish trendline. A break below this level would signal a clear risk warning, confirming the recent bearish shift and potentially leading to deeper declines. The next support level, where selling pressure eased in early April, paving the way for subsequent price rebounds, is near $74,500.
that1618guy, an analyst at Delphi Digital, proposed two scenarios: in an optimistic case, the market could break above $103,500 after completing the correction; in a pessimistic scenario, the rebound may face resistance between $95,000 and $99,000 before falling to around $75,000.
Even Arthur Hayes, who has consistently been bullish, has taken an unusual stance, suggesting that Bitcoin's price will remain below $90,000 and may retest the $80,000 support level.
Moreover, the more pessimistic crypto analyst @ali_charts even suggested that key support levels might be at $75,740, $56,160, and $52,820.
Of course, some institutions remain optimistic, though their focus is more on Ethereum (ETH). Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, stated on social media today: "Based on research and investment data, ETH is being heavily shorted by multiple platforms and institutions. If it can withstand the toughest month of November, a potential short squeeze may follow. Compared to ETH four years ago, the current environment—with stablecoins, ETFs, DATs, and supportive policies at entirely different levels—indicates that ETH is significantly undervalued."
