On November 14, Metals Focus reported that the rise in gold prices has led to a corresponding decline in global jewelry manufacturing volumes.
According to Zhitong Finance, Metals Focus reported on November 14 that the rise in gold prices has led to a corresponding decline in global jewelry production. Over the same period, after accounting for seasonal factors, jewelry production fell in seven out of the past eight quarters, with a quarterly compound decline of 4.1%. In terms of pure gold weight, jewelry production in the first nine months of 2025 reached its lowest level since 2010 (excluding the pandemic-affected year of 2020).
Gold prices have continued to strengthen, rising consecutively for eight quarters as of the third quarter of 2025. Calculated by quarterly average prices, the compound annual growth rate reached 7.6%. As of this writing, gold prices are slightly below $4,000 per ounce, indicating another potential quarterly increase in the fourth quarter. Based on an average price of $3,457 per ounce in the third quarter, gold prices have cumulatively risen nearly 80% over the past two years.
The increase in raw material costs will inevitably be passed on to end-user prices, driving up the cost of finished jewelry products. Faced with rising prices, consumers have several options: either pay more for jewelry of the same metal weight, opt for lighter or smaller designs, reduce purchase frequency to lower overall consumption, or switch to alternative materials.
As a result, the rise in gold prices has led to a corresponding decline in global jewelry production.
Trade tariffs have also negatively impacted the jewelry market. The United States is the world's third-largest consumer of gold jewelry after India and China, with approximately 50% to 60% of jewelry produced domestically and the remainder imported. For instance, the 20% tariff imposed by the U.S. on imports from the European Union has significantly increased consumer costs for Italian jewelry exports to the U.S.
Another key market, India, has also been affected by higher tariffs. Starting this year, the U.S. imposed a 26% tariff on Indian jewelry imports, which was further increased to 50% starting in August, directly resulting in a significant decline in exports to the U.S. In the first half of the year, U.S. imports of gold jewelry from countries such as the Dominican Republic, Italy, and Jordan fell by 30% to 50% year-on-year.
Despite Indian exporters rushing to ship goods to the U.S. in March ahead of the April implementation of the initial 26% tariff, Indian jewelry exports to the U.S. still declined by 23% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025.
In the Chinese market, gold jewelry demand has also been affected this year. Some consumer behavior has shifted from viewing jewelry as a quasi-investment product with investment attributes to purchasing lower-premium pure investment products, particularly small gold bars. This trend has led to a decline in jewelry demand in the world’s second-largest gold consumption market, further pressuring global jewelry production. In fact, in the second quarter of this year, retail investment demand in China surpassed local jewelry consumption demand for the first time in our statistics.
A significant decline in jewelry demand has further reduced the net gold demand from the manufacturing sector (i.e., production minus recycling), which is expected to approach zero by 2025. This change is mainly due to the contraction in jewelry demand, rather than a substantial increase in recycled gold supply. In the first nine months of 2025, global gold recycling increased by only 33 tons, a year-on-year growth of 4%, while jewelry production fell at nearly ten times that rate. The last time net demand for newly mined gold from the manufacturing sector reached this level was during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the market context was vastly different then—both supply chains and consumer demand were constrained by production halts and logistics disruptions.
Quarterly gold processing and recycling volumes are nearing balance.
Data Source: Metals Focus
Gold jewelry industry demonstrates resilience.
From another perspective, if jewelry manufacturing is measured by the value of gold consumed rather than its weight, the conclusion differs significantly. Since mid-2020, the total value of gold jewelry manufacturing in dollar terms has generally trended upward, reaching new highs this year.
U.S. Consumer Spending - Jewelry and Watches
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Overall, jewelry consumption expenditures across major markets remain robust. Taking the United States as an example, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), spending by U.S. households on jewelry and watches has continued to grow over the past decade, reaching USD 104.6 billion in 2024. The value of gold consumed in the U.S. in 2024 amounted to USD 10.1 billion, accounting for nearly 10% of total jewelry and watch consumption. Notably, the proportion of gold in jewelry consumption has been rising over the past few years, and this trend is expected to continue expanding this year.
Field research results indicate that, excluding the United States, the pure gold weight of global gold jewelry has declined this year. However, consumer spending measured by value has continued to grow, offsetting the decline in weight. In the first nine months of 2025, the total value of gold contained in global jewelry exceeded USD 112 billion, representing a 14% increase year-on-year. This suggests that despite a drop in jewelry demand measured by pure gold weight, global consumers' enthusiasm for gold jewelry remains high amid rising gold prices.
Global Gold Jewelry Consumption Shows an Upward Trend (Quarterly)
Data Source: Metals Focus
