At the beginning of this month, cryptocurrency assets fell in tandem due to three main factors. First, a series of internal industry risk events undermined market confidence. Second, the chain reaction triggered by high-leverage liquidation exacerbated market volatility. Third, the looming threat of a U.S. federal government shutdown constituted an additional liquidity shock. We previously explained this in“BTC Rebounds to $106,000! Government Reopening Brings Hope + Trump Again Proposes Universal Cash Disbursement—Can It Reach $150,000 by Year-End?”.
Starting last Sunday, prices of risk assets began to rebound significantly,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$recovering from $100,000 to $105,000,$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$and Ethereum rebounded from $3,300 to above $3,500. The U.S. stock market saw a strong rally on Monday, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ with Nasdaq soaring over 2%.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$A surge of 1.5%. This is mainly due to a glimmer of hope in the U.S. government shutdown crisis, as the Senate approved a temporary funding bill on November 10, 2025, with a 60-40 vote, extending government funding until January 30, 2026, and reversing some federal layoffs.
The following will explain why the cryptocurrency market is eager for the government to reopen and release liquidity, and what key dates regarding the current government shutdown are worth paying attention to.
How will government funding liquidity enter the cryptocurrency market?
Since the shutdown began on October 10, 2025, non-essential expenditures by the U.S. federal government, such as employee salaries, benefit disbursements, and project contracts, have been frozen, but tax collection, tariffs, and other revenue sources have not stopped. These funds flow directly into the Treasury General Account (TGA) but cannot be spent promptly, leading to accumulation.
During the shutdown, government spending was suspended, locking hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars in the TGA, preventing it from circulating in the market, which essentially withdraws liquidity from the economy.
Once the government reopens, these funds will be rapidly released, injected into the economy through payments of government employee salaries, benefit disbursements, contract execution, and stimulus programs. For instance, the TGA balance may decline from the current level of approximately $950 billion, converting into actual circulating currency. Historically, on January 25, 2019, when the U.S. government shutdown ended, President Trump signed a temporary funding bill that reopened government departments. The restored liquidity at that time drove a market rebound, with Bitcoin surging from $3,100 to $13,900.
Moreover, short-term fund injections stimulate economic growth, reduce borrowing costs (e.g., a decline in SOFR rates), and improve overall market liquidity. This typically boosts investor confidence, prompting capital flows from safe assets like government bonds toward riskier assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency market is particularly sensitive to changes in liquidity, as it relies heavily on global capital flows and speculative sentiment.
What potential benefits might arise for the cryptocurrency market after the government reopens?
Regulatory restoration
The end of the shutdown means that agencies such as the SEC and CFTC will resume normal operations, advancing crypto-related approvals, such as ETF applications and market structure bills. This could attract institutional capital inflows into the crypto space. For instance,$Solana (HSDT.US)$、 $Ripple (XRP.CC)$ the approval process for altcoin ETFs may accelerate. The approval of these ETFs would provide institutional investors with easier access, attracting hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows.
Moreover, the draft of the 'Crypto Market Structure Bill' in Congress is expected to progress. This bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for crypto assets, distinguishing between securities and commodities, thereby reducing uncertainty.
Monetary Policy Coordination
The Federal Reserve may end Quantitative Tightening (QT) or shift to easing, further amplifying liquidity effects. The conclusion of QT will release bank reserves, lower borrowing costs, and stimulate demand for risk assets. Combined with increased spending after the government reopens (e.g., funds released from the TGA account injecting hundreds of billions into the economy), this will create a 'risk-on' environment. As a high-BETA asset, crypto will benefit from this 'risk-on' scenario, leading to price rebounds such as Bitcoin's recent rise to $105,000.
Market Chain Reaction
Increased liquidity will push up stock markets and spill over into crypto, driving Bitcoin towards the $112,000 liquidity zone. Recently, the U.S. stock market added $1 trillion in market value, boosting Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices. Given the high correlation between the crypto market and equities, capital will flow from stocks into Bitcoin and altcoins. Bitcoin’s price target is aimed at the $112,000 liquidity zone, where short squeezes may occur once liquidity is unlocked.
Which key时间节点 should be monitored going forward?
As of November 10, 2025, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 41st day, but significant progress has been made toward restarting operations.
On the evening of November 9 (Sunday), the Senate advanced and passed a temporary funding bill with a 60-40 vote, extending government funding until January 30, 2026, while including provisions to roll back certain federal layoffs and add healthcare clauses. This bill is based on a previous version passed by the House of Representatives, with amendments incorporated.
The bill has now been formally sent to the House of Representatives, marking the final legislative phase of the restart process. Members of the House are returning to Washington from recess, and while the shutdown may continue for a few more days, overall expectations indicate it will conclude within this week. According to betting markets on Polymarket, the majority of the market anticipates that the government will resume operations between November 12 and 15.
The remaining steps for the government's restart heavily depend on the Congressional schedule and bipartisan cooperation:
House of Representatives reconvenes and votes (November 11-12, 2025)
The House has been in recess since mid-September, but members are now being recalled. The earliest possible vote could occur on the afternoon of November 12 (Wednesday) local time. If passed smoothly, the bill will be sent directly to the President for signature.
Presidential signing (expected November 13-14, 2025)
Once the House passes the bill, U.S. President Trump is expected to sign it promptly to avoid further delays. If additional clauses (such as healthcare-related ones) are included, extra review may be required, but the current bill already enjoys bipartisan support.
Actual government restart (November 14-17, 2025)
Following the signing, U.S. federal government agencies will gradually resume operations, employees will return to work, and backlogged payments will be processed within a few days.
What are some crypto assets worth paying attention to?
In addition to $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ 、 $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ 、 $Solana (SOL.CC)$ In addition to mainstream spot coins, Hong Kong-listed cryptocurrency spot ETFs are noteworthy: $ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$ 、 $Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$ 、$Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (03008.HK)$ 、 $ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$ 、 $Bosera HashKey Ether ETF (03009.HK)$ 、 $Harvest Ether Spot ETF (03179.HK)$ 、$Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active ETF (03135.HK)$ 、 $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$ 、 $CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$ 、$ChinaAMC Solana ETF (03460.HK)$。
Previously, NiuNiu compiled a list of cryptocurrency-related concept stocks in the U.S. stock market for fellow investors' reference, including bitcoin holding stocks. $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ , Ethereum-based stock $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ , SOL-based stock$Upexi (UPXI.US)$, as well as the currently popular $Binance Coin (BNB.CC)$ crypto-holding stock $CEA Industries (BNC.US)$ and $Windtree Therapeutics (WINT.US)$ 。
Other crypto platforms are also worth noting, such as the first stablecoin stock$Circle (CRCL.US)$, RWA platform $Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR.US)$ , and cryptocurrency trading platforms$Coinbase (COIN.US)$、$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$、 $Bullish (BLSH.US)$ and$Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US)$。
Editor/Rocky
