Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla's relationship with xAI, breakthrough progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD), a vertical integration strategy for chips, a distributed inference cloud network, AI satellites in space, and the revolutionary production method of Cybercab will all reshape Tesla’s long-term value. These strategic layouts go far beyond the scope of traditional automakers, pointing to an AI-driven 'Muskonomy'.
As the entire market's attention is focused on Musk's exorbitant compensation, Morgan Stanley pointed out that the market has overlooked$Tesla (TSLA.US)$the strategic highlights of the shareholders' meeting.
According to ChaseWind Trading Platform, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas stated in his latest report that shareholders’ approval of Musk’s staggering compensation package was expected, but this was merely noise. The real value of the report lies in revealing several key signals that have been overlooked by the market but will profoundly impact the stock price within the next 6 to 12 months.
Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla's relationship with xAI, breakthrough progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD), a vertical integration strategy for chips, a distributed inference cloud network, AI satellites in space, and the revolutionary production method of Cybercab will all reshape Tesla’s long-term value. These strategic layouts go far beyond the scope of traditional automakers, pointing to an AI-driven 'Muskonomy'.
Morgan Stanley maintained its 'Overweight' rating on Tesla and set a target price of $410. Tesla’s stock closed at $445.23 overnight, with a bullish scenario target price as high as $800.
The Cornerstone of 'Muskonomy': xAI and Chip Autonomy
The report noted that the market seems not to fully grasp the symbiotic relationship between Tesla and xAI, which is akin to 'if one falls, the other suffers'.
Morgan Stanley’s report emphasized:
Tesla’s relationship with xAI (both financially and strategically) is decisive for Tesla’s long-term success… We believe that as Tesla enters the next phase of physical AI/autonomous driving over the coming year, this co-determinism will become even more apparent.
Morgan Stanley believes that the two companies form a recursive loop in data, software, hardware, and manufacturing, with their value systems originating from the same creator. This deep integration will play a decisive role in the success or failure of Tesla's physical AI and autonomous driving future.
Moreover, to support the ambitious plan involving billions of robots (cars, humanoid robots, etc.), Elon Musk hinted that Tesla might personally build 'giant chip factories' to ensure the supply and innovation of this most precious resource for the 'robot brain.' The most critical part of a robot is its reasoning brain, and Tesla aims to achieve a certain degree of vertical integration in the production of reasoning chips.
At the shareholders' meeting, Musk's confidence in FSD V14.3 enabling 'texting while driving' received applause comparable to the approval of his compensation plan. Morgan Stanley believes the market has underestimated the significance of this moment.
Shifting the responsibility of driving from humans to pure vision algorithms represents the 'steam engine moment' in transportation—a historic technological breakthrough. This is not only a technological advancement but also a fundamental transformation in mobility.
Additionally, Musk proposed a stunning concept—a 'massive' distributed reasoning cloud.
If you allow Tesla to perform AI reasoning computations using your vehicle when it’s not in use, we would be willing to pay you $100 to $200 per month. With over 300 million cars in the U.S. alone and more than 1.2 billion globally, if they all possessed computing power equivalent to NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU, it would create an unprecedented edge computing network to alleviate the load on data centers. In the U.S. alone, this would equate to over 300 million Blackwells, reaching 1.2 billion globally, and potentially increasing to 2 billion within the next 15 years.
The Ultimate Blueprint: Space Computing and Disruptive Manufacturing
The report also captured two 'Easter eggs' pointing to the future. One was Musk's mention of 'solar-powered AI satellites,' hinting at strategic synergy between Tesla and SpaceX in space computing.
The concept of 'solar-powered AI satellites' drew significant attention from Morgan Stanley's embodied AI and space teams. Analysts noted:
They have long discussed the natural overlap between advanced computing and cybersecurity communications in space. Space-based data centers are far from science fiction; they are an inevitable technology to meet humanity’s growing demand for computing power and electricity. Computers require cooling environments, and outer space, with a baseline temperature of 2.7 Kelvin (-270.45°C, -454.8°F), offers clear thermal dissipation advantages.
Second, the production target of Cybercab — “one car every 10 seconds” — far exceeds the cycle time of 60-90 seconds in traditional automobile manufacturing. Behind this are disruptive innovations such as the "box-less" production line, minimalist design, and paint-free processes. This signals another great leap in large-scale automotive production methods since Henry Ford. Specifically, Tesla aims to achieve the following:
By adopting an entirely new "non-box" production line, a minimalist approach, and almost zero customization/differentiation between models. There will be no steering wheel, no rearview mirrors, and pre-coated plastic composite materials for the snap-on body panels (which may eliminate the need for a paint shop).
Editor/melody
