After experiencing a sharp and stormy correction, Bitcoin has recently shown resilience. During the early trading session in the Asian market on November 10, the price of BTC surged back above the key level of $106,000.
This move has undoubtedly injected a strong boost of confidence into the market, but doubts among investors have not completely dissipated: Is this the starting point of a new upward trend, or just another short-lived rebound?
I. Review of the Shadow of Decline: A Stress Test Driven by Multiple Factors
Previously, Bitcoin experienced a pullback, dropping from $126,000 at the beginning of October to as low as $99,000, breaching the psychological threshold of $100,000 at one point.
A series of risk events within the industry erupted consecutively, undermining market confidence.
On November 3, the long-standing DeFi protocol Balancer was reported to have suffered a theft of assets exceeding $100 million. Hours after Balancer encountered the vulnerability attack, which caused widespread uncertainty in the DeFi space, Berachain urgently executed a hard fork, and SonicLabs froze the attacker's wallet.
On November 4, Stream Finance announced that approximately $93 million worth of Stream Fund assets had incurred losses. Subsequently, the price of Stream Finance's xUSD stablecoin significantly deviated from its target range, exhibiting clear de-pegging.
The successive issues with DeFi protocols such as Balancer and Stream Finance not only resulted in user asset losses but also triggered renewed concerns about the security and reliability of the DeFi sector. Panic spread throughout the community.
The chain reaction caused by high-leverage liquidations exacerbated market volatility.
During the price decline, a large number of leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, creating a negative feedback loop of 'decline-liquidation-further decline,' amplifying the losses. This led to short-term liquidity tightness and significant price erosion in the market.
According to Coinglass data, the cumulative liquidation of BTC long and short positions on November 3rd and 4th reached $3.3 billion.
Concerns over the valuation of external risk assets have also spilled over into the cryptocurrency market.
On November 4th, the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley jointly issued a warning: despite strong corporate earnings, the current valuation levels are concerning, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential correction of 10% to 20%.
Last week, the overall U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with the S&P 500 declining by 1.63%, the Nasdaq falling by 3.04%, and the Dow Jones dropping by 1.21%. Doubts about the excessive valuations of some AI-related stocks triggered adjustments in the technology sector. This reevaluation of valuation models for high-risk assets inevitably affected cryptocurrencies, which are also categorized as high-risk, leading to an increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors.
The potential shutdown of the U.S. federal government constituted an additional liquidity shock.
The risk of a government shutdown brought political uncertainty and may temporarily impact certain fiscal functions and market liquidity, casting a shadow over global risk asset markets. The cryptocurrency market was no exception.
II. A Glimmer of Hope: On November 10th, the U.S. Senate formally passed a new continuing appropriations bill.
Market sentiment often nurtures turning points amid despair, with positive factors emerging at both the industry and macroeconomic levels, providing potential support for the market.
At the industry level within the cryptocurrency sector, on the one-year anniversary of Trump's return to the White House, his administration made a high-profile announcement regarding its policy direction for crypto assets. On November 6th, according to CoinDesk, during a speech delivered on the first day of the 'American Business Forum' held in Miami, Florida, Trump called for the United States to embrace crypto assets.
Trump stated, "Crypto assets can significantly alleviate the burden on the U.S. dollar and bring many positive effects. We are focused on advancing this agenda. We aim to make the United States a superpower in Bitcoin (BTC) and the global hub for crypto assets."
Amid the decline in BTC prices, the Trump family is taking the opportunity to buy at a discount. On November 7, The Wall Street Journal reported that American Bitcoin (ABTC), a mining company associated with the Trump family, increased its bitcoin holdings by 139 units starting from October 24, 2025, raising its strategic reserve to 4,004 bitcoins.
At the macro level, on November 10, expectations of the government reopening fueled investor enthusiasm. On November 10, the U.S. Senate officially passed a new continuing appropriations bill, which will fund the government until November 30 to end the shutdown. Although more steps need to be completed before the government reopens, the probability of "the U.S. government restarting between December 12 and 15" on Polymarket surged to over 80%.
This development eliminated a significant source of short-term uncertainty, helping to stabilize market sentiment and ease potential liquidity pressures.
Meanwhile, policy expectations have also shifted toward easing. On November 9, Trump posted on Truth Social: "Those who oppose tariffs are fools! We are now the wealthiest and most respected country in the world, with nearly zero inflation and stock markets hitting record highs... A dividend of at least $2,000 will be paid to everyone (excluding high-income individuals!)."
Bessent stated: "This $2,000 subsidy could take various forms. It may stem from tax cuts being advanced under the president's agenda, such as exemptions for tips, overtime pay, social security contributions, or deductible interest on car loans."
Trump boasted about distributing 'tariff dividends,' while economic advisor Bessent hinted that this goal might be achieved through tax cuts. If such policies are implemented, it would mean more capital could flow into the market. Historically, a loose fiscal environment has often benefited scarce assets like bitcoin.
III. Lessons from History: Can November Repeat Its Past Glory?
Historical data shows that since 2013, bitcoin has averaged a staggering return of 42.49% in November, making it one of the strongest-performing months on record.
While there are various speculations behind this 'November effect,' such as year-end positioning or institutional fiscal-year planning, the historical regularity cannot be ignored. As November is currently underway, whether this seasonal pattern will repeat itself will be one of the key focal points for the market.
IV. Market Perspectives:
On November 8, Eric Trump publicly expressed strong optimism about Bitcoin. He noted: 'The largest family offices and the biggest private wealth funds all want Bitcoin. Fortune 500 companies are valuing it... Some major countries will utilize all excess energy to mine Bitcoin.'
On November 9, on-chain data analyst Murphy analyzed from the perspective of market sentiment that the investor confidence index is approaching the 'sentiment bottom' infinitely. He indicated that if BTC does not rebound sharply immediately, an effective bottom signal may be triggered next week. For those holding no positions, a potential 'optimal entry zone' might be forming.
On November 10, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, posted in his characteristic sharp style, 'The U.S. government is back at what it does best—printing money and handing out benefits. BTC is about to take off!' The news article he attached was about the end of the U.S. government shutdown. Hayes’ view directly addresses the core issue: fiscal expansion and the potential overissuance of currency form the fundamental bullish logic for anti-inflation assets like Bitcoin.
On November 10, Matrixport published its market outlook, stating that from Technically, this round of retracement has approached a cost-effective range.RSI It recently dropped to 35, and based on historical experience, technical buying tends to become more active around this level, though sustainability still requires macro catalysts for verification.
Short-term catalysts include the potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown this week and Trump's hint of possibly issuing 'stimulus checks' of approximately $2,000 to the public, evoking memories of the retail investor boom driven by such checks during 2020-2021. Overall, given the backdrop of net ETF outflows in the past week and institutional caution, the strength of the rebound is expected to be limited. The aforementioned catalysts alone are unlikely to drive a trend reversal; further validation from both liquidity and fundamental factors is still required.
Summary
After Bitcoin returned to the $106,000 level, its outlook is being shaped by a series of complex forces. On one hand, the residual impact of internal risks and high leverage within the industry has not yet fully dissipated, leaving market sentiment still fragile; on the other hand, the easing of the government shutdown crisis, along with expectations of future fiscal stimulus, together form potential macro-supportive factors. Coupled with the historically strong 'November effect,' the prospects for Bitcoin are not entirely bleak.
Can BTC effectively digest the previous negative factors and truly transform the potential macro tailwinds into sustained upward momentum?
Or will it continue to consolidate and build strength?
What do fellow investors think?
Is there hope for BTC to reach $150,000 before the end of the year?
Editor/Doris
