JPMorgan released a research report stating that, based on AIA's (01299) strong new business value performance in Q3 2025, the bank is updating its estimates. It slightly raised the target price from HKD 105 to HKD 107 and maintained an 'Overweight' rating for the company.
With a notable recovery in mainland China's life insurance demand — average year-on-year growth of new business value in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 49% — the bank believes investor confidence in the sector’s growth prospects and quality is improving. Moreover, despite stronger economic assumptions, AIA China achieved robust year-on-year new business value growth of 27% in Q3 2025 (with newly expanded regions contributing 11% of AIA China’s new business value), supporting a stronger outlook for new business value growth in 2026 and beyond, particularly considering further geographic expansion plans.
JPMorgan noted that AIA's current share price represents 1.4 times the forecast embedded value for the fiscal year 2026 and has outperformed the broader market this year (up 43%, compared to a 31% rise in the Hang Seng Index). Given the current valuation (1.4 times the forecast embedded value for fiscal year 2026, versus a historical average of 1.7 times), the bank expects upward revisions to market consensus on new business value growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 to serve as a near-term catalyst.
