$MP Materials (MP.US)$ MP Materials is expected to release its earnings report after the market closes on November 6, Eastern Time. Institutional forecasts predict that MP Materials will achieve revenue of $53.0021 million in Q3 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 15.77%. The estimated earnings per share are -$0.220, with losses widening by 37.27% compared to the same period last year.
The accounting standard used for the above data is US-GAAP.
2025 Stock Performance Review: Over 40% Correction After a 5x Surge
As the leading player in U.S.-based rare earth mining and processing, MP Materials operates the only active rare earth mine in the United States—the Mountain Pass mine in California—and was hailed as the 'King of U.S. Rare Earths' upon its public listing.
MP Materials’ stock price soared from less than $20 to a historic high of $100.25 in October 2025, marking an increase of over 5 times. Its market capitalization surpassed $14 billion, far exceeding other U.S. rare earth companies and ranking it at the top among American rare earth enterprises.
Previously, we discussed in“A 5x Surge Within the Year! How Options Traders Are Seizing the Profit Opportunities of MP Materials, the 'King of U.S. Rare Earths'an article where we analyzed the driving factors behind MP Materials’ stock price increase.
First, geopolitics is the primary driver. The escalation of trade friction between China and the United States has led the U.S. government to view rare earths as a cornerstone of national security. In April 2025, MP Materials announced the cessation of rare earth concentrate exports abroad. In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a $400 million acquisition of convertible preferred shares in MP Materials, becoming its largest shareholder (with a 15% stake), supporting MP Materials' '10X facility' expansion project. This initiative aims to increase NdPr production tenfold, breaking China's monopoly; simultaneously, the Department of Defense set a floor price of $110 per kilogram for the core product NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium), significantly higher than the current market price of $77 per kilogram.
The infusion of Wall Street capital further bolsters market confidence. Apart from the Department of Defense, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan will jointly provide $1 billion in financing to support MP’s production expansion and magnet manufacturing projects, with the capital markets viewing this as a strong endorsement.
In response to growing market demand, the company has signed agreements with firms such as Apple. Rare earth elements are critical materials for smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), wind power, and defense equipment. NdPr is used to manufacture high-performance magnets, with demand surging alongside EV sales. On the commercial front, the company has secured long-term supply agreements with giants like Apple and General Motors, effectively locking in downstream demand.
Internal operational improvements have also played a significant role. In the second quarter of 2025, MP Materials reported revenue of $57.39 million, an 84% year-on-year increase. By processing more concentrate internally, the company drove a 226% year-on-year surge in NdPr oxide sales, narrowing its losses.
However, the former leader is undergoing severe challenges, with its stock price having retreated by more than 40% from its yearly high, putting market confidence under immense strain.
The upcoming Q3 earnings report is not merely a routine disclosure of financial performance but is regarded as a litmus test to determine whether its narrative remains robust and whether it can regain market confidence.
Can MP Materials’ stock price rebound after the earnings release following a deep correction? The market focuses on three key points.
Key focus one: Has profitability bottomed out, or will it continue to deteriorate?
MP Materials’ recent stock weakness is linked to market concerns over continued profitability declines in its Q3 earnings report. Cyclical fluctuations in commodity prices, rising operational costs, and substantial upfront investments in downstream integration have collectively pushed the company into losses. Therefore, the primary focus of this earnings report will be firmly on the improvement in gross margin and net loss.
Any signal indicating that profitability is “bottoming out,” such as a narrowing gross margin gap or losses smaller than market expectations, will serve as a short-term catalyst for the stock. At the end of October, when news emerged that China and the U.S. might reach a tariff truce, MP’s upward momentum reversed. If the U.S. increases rare earth metal imports from China, it could lead to price declines. MP is striving to achieve profitability and does not need additional headwinds at this time.
Conversely, if losses continue to widen and even exceed expectations significantly, it may completely shatter the market's belief in its short-term profitability, triggering further sell-offs. For MP Materials, demonstrating that it is not only a 'strategic story' but also a profitable business is the first step toward restoring investor confidence.
Secondly, the balance sheet may also be a key focus for the market. As a mining company, MP Materials had over $750 million in cash and short-term investments as of the end of June 2025, but its total debt approached $920 million. How MP Materials maintains a healthy balance sheet amidst high capital expenditures will be one of the key concerns for investors.
Focus Point Two: Progress on the Strategic Transformation Lifeline – The 'Magnet Plant'?
The core value of MP Materials lies not merely in extracting rare earth raw materials from mines; its true potential lies in establishing a complete 'mine-to-magnet' industrial chain, directly supplying high-value-added neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets to the U.S. domestic electric vehicle, defense, and wind power industries. The expansion of MP Materials’ magnet plant through its '10X Facility' is central to its strategic transformation.
During this earnings call, management’s elaboration on the construction progress, production timeline, and status of potential customer agreements for the magnet plant will be crucial in determining long-term market confidence. Investors are looking for specific, verifiable milestones rather than vague visions: Has installation and debugging of production lines begun? Has a long-term supply memorandum been signed with a major automaker or Tier 1 supplier? Any indication of project delays or partnership obstacles could be interpreted by the market as a weakening of the narrative logic.
Focus Point Three: Moat or Double-Edged Sword? Potential Impacts of Sino-U.S. Trade Policy
The emergence and rise of MP Materials are deeply rooted in the macro backdrop of Sino-U.S. geopolitical tensions and trade frictions. Its identity as the 'only rare earth supplier in the U.S.' serves as both its strongest competitive moat and makes its stock price highly sensitive to policy shifts. Any increase in uncertainty could turn this 'double-edged sword' against itself.
Recently, market concerns over China loosening restrictions on rare earth exports have been a significant factor weighing on its stock price. Following the earnings report, the third key area of investor focus will be management’s interpretation of the policy environment and any substantive progress in its collaboration with the U.S. government.
For instance, the market will closely monitor the implementation status of the minimum price agreement for neodymium-praseodymium signed with the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as whether new government funding or orders have been secured.
On November 3, Vulcan Elements, a U.S.-based rare earth magnet startup, announced a $1.4 billion deal with the U.S. government and private investors to build a magnet factory with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons. Under this arrangement, the U.S. Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital will provide $620 million in policy-backed loans, while the U.S. Department of Commerce will offer $50 million in incentives under the CHIPS Act. An additional $550 million will come from private capital. These moves by the U.S. government indicate that even amid improving Sino-U.S. relations, the U.S. is attempting to reduce its heavy reliance on China's rare earths.
Options Signals
Prior to the earnings report, there was a slight increase in options trading volume. A large put option buy order worth USD 454,000 was executed on November 3. The modest rise in the put-to-call ratio indicates a short-term defensive sentiment. Current call and put option open interest is roughly balanced, suggesting the market has no clear directional bias for the stock price.
From a volatility perspective, the current implied volatility (IV) stands at approximately 84%, with an IV percentile of 85%, reflecting relatively high historical levels and indicating that options prices are elevated.
Based on historical daily performance forecasts of options, the market currently anticipates a potential price fluctuation of ±12.05%. It is widely expected that there will be significant stock price volatility following the earnings announcement.
Following a deep correction, MP Materials now finds itself at a critical juncture. The recent decline in its share price reflects market pessimism regarding near-term profitability challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Will the company regain upward momentum or plunge into further decline after this third-quarter earnings release?
What do fellow investors think?
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Editor/Doris
