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"徐雷的"京东

“Xu Lei's” JD

阿尔法工场研究院 ·  Jun 19, 2020 10:38

Source: Alpha Workshop Research Institute

Author: Lin Xiaochen

Abstract: for JD.com, a step forward may not be a paradise, but stepping back must be a cliff.

On June 18, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange took the lead.

Xu Lei sounded the big golden gong that was taller than himself, which cost the Hong Kong Stock Exchange more than 200,000. In addition to the bright red background around him, there are also two "delivery boys". It is obvious that JD.com, who is in power, has never forgotten his promise to treat "couriers as brothers", but one cannot help but wonder whether the treatment of these two employees who have won this honor has exceeded that of the county magistrate.

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The outside world has always had an impression of Xu Lei: indecent. He also often says that he is a craftsman who doesn't like to wear suits and hates wearing them. But this time JD.com went public for the second time, and he put on a properly ironed black suit. Coincidentally, when JD.com went public in the United States six years ago, Liu Qiangdong also wore a black suit, and the people around him were his first love and his sister milk tea.

In this important event of Hong Kong stock listing, Liu Qiangdong did not show up directly, and JD.com 's transfer of power seems to have been really completed. Can Xu Lei rebuild a new "prefix" of his own?

1. The turning point in history

At the end of 2018, JD.com 's share price hit rock bottom because Liu Qiangdong had gone too far in Minnesota.

Xu Lei was ordered to become a fire captain in the face of danger. he left Beijing with more than 20 core executives for a meeting in Zhaoqing, Guangdong. As for why you want to go to this place, the outside world does not know, but there is a fact that Zhaoqing is 1774 kilometers away from Suqian, the hometown of Liu Qiangdong. The meeting lasted three days and three nights, and JD.com entered a turning point in history.

If it goes on like this, guys, don't do it. Xu Lei gave a cruel word to the executives present.

This sentence is a bit intimidating, but also let JD.com executives quickly form a consensus, from the business philosophy to the organizational structure adjustment are in line with Xu Lei's meaning. Obviously, looking back todayLet Xu Lei stand on the front desk this move is very clever, because he came from the military compound, led JD.com out of the dark moment, but also put "to Liu Qiang Easternization" on the agenda.

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Two years later, JD.com, headed by Xu Lei, lived up to expectations on the first day of his "secondary listing". At the beginning of trading, Jingdong Hong Kong shares were sought after by investors, opening 5.75% higher at HK $239 per share, with a total market capitalization of HK $107.7 billion.

Along with the good news on the market is JD.com 's record of 618. At the scene of JD.com 's listing, the cumulative GMV promoted by JD.com this year has reached about 228.46 billion yuan, surpassing the 204.4 billion yuan of GMV last year's double 11 and the 201.5 billion yuan of last year's 618.

Xu Lei also has the title of "618" father.

At the listing ceremony, Xu Lei said: "in the future, JD.com will take the secondary listing as an opportunity to continuously carry out technological innovation around the supply chain, use science and technology to change human life, change the face of society, and achieve symbiotic development with the whole world. Create a steady stream of value for our customers! In the end, we expect JD.com to become one of the most trusted companies in the world. "

His words seem mundane, but they are hard at heart, not only without mentioning the former founder, but also revealing his ambitions.

In the eyes of the outside world, Xu Lei, who has been engaged in marketing and promotion, did not usher in the "highlight moment" of his career until 2018, after 18 years in the Internet industry.

In the largest organizational restructuring in JD.com 's history at the end of 2018, JD.com Mall was divided into three parts: the front desk, the middle desk and the backstage, and newly established the platform Operation Department and the purchase Business Department, integrating the fresh Business Department into 7 Fresh;. At the same time, Xu Lei was pushed to the stage as the rotation CEO, and the three major business groups within JD.com reported to Xu Lei from reporting to Liu Qiangdong to Xu Lei.

During his one-year tenure at the helm of JD.com, Xu Lei's ability was recognized. At the 2019 annual commendation meeting of JD.com Retail Group held on January 12 this year, Xu Lei, who served as the rotating CEO, successfully became a regular employee, removing the word "rotation". When he took the stage to give a speech, there was thunderous applause from the audience, which was a kind of recognition and the most favorable praise.

Xu Lei, standing in the middle of the stage, mentioned loudly: "if you don't grow up, you will exit." With the determination of "win or die", set JD.com 's ambition to the outside world in 2020.

2. The best time

JD.com chooses "secondary listing" at such a time node, which is probably the best time.

Throughout JD.com 's financial results over the years, 2019 is the most eye-catching. Whether it is business data or active user data, JD.com seems to be rejuvenated.

Before the second quarter of 2018, JD.com 's monthly active users always showed a steady growth trend, from 105 million in the first quarter of 2015 to 314 million in the second quarter of 2018. At this stage, although JD.com is questioned by losses, the growing number of active users still gives the market strong confidence.

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However, from the third quarter of 2018, JD.com 's number of monthly active users suddenly declined to 305 million, a sudden decrease of nearly 10 million, until the first quarter of 2019. JD.com 's number of active users has never exceeded the number of 314 million. During this period, JD.com 's share price once fell by more than 50%.

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Everything changed after Xu Lei took office, and JD.com 's active user growth was activated and hit an all-time high in the second quarter of 2019. In the last three quarters (Q3 in 2019-Q1 in 2020), JD.com 's monthly active users were 334 million, 362 million and 387 million respectively, an increase of 13.1 million, 27.6 million and 25.4 million active users respectively compared with the previous month-on-month increase, which even exceeded the rapid growth period before JD.com.

JD.com 's active users are growing again, which is closely related to the strategic product "Jingxi" advocated by Xu Lei. According to relevant data, the "Jingxi" platform, which has been established for only 9 months, is expected to complete a milestone of 10 million orders on 618.

According to Questmobile, only four months after the launch of "Jingxi" Mini Program, the number of monthly active users has reached 167 million. This social shopping platform allows users to share with each other when shopping, bringing JD.com a large number of new users and increasing the stickiness of old users.

Before 2019, no one believed that JD.com could do this, and the market was optimistic about the more-to-be-more model, but they all thought that this model was not compatible with JD.com, and many people even thought that with Pinduoduo, why would they want to be "Jingxi"?

However, "Jingxi" told us with practical actions that as long as the heart sinks, nothing is impossible, solved the channel problem, re-opened the supply chain, can be made into C2M model. Of course, this is also inseparable from JD.com 's all-out support. In the past period of time, JD.com once gave the two major traffic entrances QQ and Wechat to "Jingxi" at the same time.

If the increase in the number of active users is only superficial, then the overall improvement in operating profits is the most direct embodiment of JD.com 's operational effectiveness. After 16 years of continuous losses, JD.com has made a full profit from the first quarter of 2019. And has maintained this momentum for five quarters.

In the first quarter of the epidemic, JD.com still maintained an operating profit of 2.32 billion yuan.

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To put it bluntly, the core reason for JD.com 's overall profit is the improvement of the group's overall gross profit margin, coupled with the fact that the expense rate continues to remain stable, ensuring the company's continued profitability.

There are two main aspects of the increase in gross profit margin. One is the successful full implementation of Plus+ membership, resulting in a continuous increase in non-e-commerce revenue. According to the financial report of the first quarter of 2020, JD.com 's revenue contributed by non-e-commerce business reached 16.112 billion yuan, accounting for 11% of the total revenue.

On the other hand, JD.com 's supply chain strategy introduces social idle funds with the help of the model of supply chain finance, and gets a greater discount by shortening the supplier's account period in advance. It is necessary to talk about the model of supply chain finance, because it is a highly leveraged business. Because of the high turnover of goods, the same amount of money can be transferred many times in a year.

The number of monthly active users is growing again, the main business has continued to make profits for many quarters, and the revenue scale has reached a new high, which is a perfect time for JD.com.

3. The beginning of the long March

In the final analysis, the capital market is a game, and it is impossible to have a happy situation at any time. JD.com chose the time node that is most beneficial to him to go public, and someone is bound to pay for it.

As mentioned earlier, JD.com 's business performance has improved in an all-round way after Xu Lei took office, and the key "Jingxi" has indeed brought surprises, but in the sound of praise, those potential crises are often ignored.

Far away, let's say that in 618 this year, when JD.com was busy listing on the stock market, old rival SUNING held high the "Jmuri 10% plan" and promised that the hand price would be at least 10% cheaper on the basis of JD.com 's subsidy. As soon as the news came out, the number of online searches for the keyword "Jmuri 10%" increased nine times.

As early as in 2012, it was the price war launched by Liu Qiangdong that allowed JD.com to successfully pick down Big Brother SUNING and Gome, and the whole e-commerce industry was in flames of war.Eight years later, SUNING used the way of returning the other way to launch the same price war offensive against JD.com.

It is unclear how much waves the "Jmuri 10% plan", which is currently in fermentation, will cause, but there is no doubt that JD.com 's era of single-minded development in the past has become a thing of the past. When drastic changes have taken place in the entire industry and the external environment continues to give pressure, can JD.com continue to maintain the previous high growth momentum?

Just as Amazon.Com Inc was the target of JD.com at the beginning of its establishment, he thought of himself as Amazon.Com Inc for a long time. Realistically speaking, JD.com really inherited the mantle of Amazon.Com Inc's e-commerce, and even came out of the blue.

But as we all know, the reason for Amazon.Com Inc's stock price to take off is cloud computing, while JD.com failed early on this track. If Amazon.Com Inc spun off the cloud computing business today, his valuation would also be greatly reduced, and JD.com is like Amazon.Com Inc of pure e-commerce business.

This means that JD.com 's future boundary may be very low. Apart from retail business and supporting logistics business, JD.com 's current success is financial business, and when these businesses reach the ceiling, JD.com seems to have lost the momentum for growth. Meituan is successful because he can constantly expand his boundaries, which seems to be hard to see in JD.com.

This is the biggest problem facing Xu Lei.

In addition, after a successful profit, the market analysis of JD.com 's value will also change, which is also the reason why many emerging companies are unwilling to make a profit. When you become a company that can continue to make a profit, the market will be more strict with you. Once the performance declines, you are likely to face a shareholder sell-off, which may also hinder JD.com 's development.

The enterprise is difficult to manage, and the boss is miserable. Xu Lei personally led the hard battle, rushed to the front, step by step out of the quagmire, to try new business, to expand JD.com 's larger boundary. However, it is worth noting that more than 70 per cent of JD.com 's voting rights are still in the hands of Liu Qiangdong.

Edit / Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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