Overview of Key Events This Week
High-flying U.S. equities and gold face a test as investors focus on developments in the trade situation.
The S&P 500 index has been on an upward trajectory since April, continuously setting new records, but this week saw a series of uncertainties emerge. In the coming week, investors will face a critical test of the bull market's resilience. The VIX volatility index surged sharply during Friday's trading session, spiking to 28.99 at one point, reaching its highest level since late April. The historic rallies in gold and silver have drawn significant market attention; however, influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar and Trump’s remarks on the trade situation, both experienced a sharp pullback on Friday.
According to reports, on the morning of October 18 Beijing time, He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council and Chinese lead negotiator for economic and trade affairs, held a video call with U.S. lead negotiators, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer. Both sides engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive discussions surrounding the implementation of key consensuses reached during multiple phone calls between the leaders of both countries this year, focusing on important issues in bilateral economic and trade relations. They agreed to hold a new round of China-U.S. economic and trade consultations as soon as possible.
Heightened volatility in global financial stocks is also keeping investors on edge as markets assess the potential spread of credit risks among U.S. regional banks. Analysts pointed out that if concerns over trade frictions ease next week, the safe-haven demand for gold and silver will weaken, potentially leading to more substantial pullbacks. The analysis suggests that the main reason for the increased market volatility is the renewed escalation of trade tensions, with trade issues remaining one of the key factors driving the market next week.
Meanwhile, the delayed release of U.S. inflation data will present another test for the stock market. With the government shutdown continuing, markets will focus on the sole major data release next week: the September CPI report on Friday. Regardless of the data's outcome, investors almost unanimously expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its October 28-29 meeting, as it has signaled the imminent conclusion of quantitative tightening. Unless the CPI shows significant overheating, it is unlikely to alter current interest rate expectations.
Federal Reserve Hosts Payment Innovation Conference to Discuss Stablecoins, Artificial Intelligence, and Tokenization
The Federal Reserve will host a Payment Innovation Conference on October 21, bringing together industry experts to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization. This marks a significant development week for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA).
The conference will feature panel discussions covering various aspects of payment innovation, including the tokenization of financial products and services, the integration of traditional finance with decentralized finance (DeFi), emerging use cases and business models for stablecoins, and the intersection of artificial intelligence and payments.
Treasury Secretary Bessent delivered the keynote speech. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated, "I look forward to exploring the opportunities and challenges posed by new technologies, gathering ideas on how to enhance the security and efficiency of payments, and hearing from those shaping the future of payments."
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23.
According to CCTV News, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting on September 29, 2025, to study and formulate major issues related to the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China would be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23.
Minsheng Securities stated that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will convey several significant signals: First, leveraging the institutional advantage of mobilizing resources for major undertakings to gain strategic initiative amid intense international competition; second, systematically advancing the construction of a strong nation, with the development of a financial powerhouse expected to accelerate as a coordinated strategy alongside technological and manufacturing powerhouses; third, placing greater emphasis on developing productivity in accordance with local conditions as a prominent strategic priority; fourth, further emphasizing ensuring and improving people's livelihoods while enhancing consumption rates through comprehensive measures; fifth, pushing forward the establishment of a unified national market.
Further Reading:Coming soon! One chart takes you through the key points of the 20th Central Committee Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China.
China’s Q3 macroeconomic data will be released next week.
On October 20, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will hold a press conference to provide an overview of the state of the national economy. As per convention, the GDP data for Q3 2025 will be announced on the same day. According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, additional reports will also be released, including the monthly report on industrial production above designated size, the monthly report on fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households), the monthly report on real estate development and sales, the monthly report on total retail sales of consumer goods, and the monthly report on energy production. China’s latest LPR data will also be published on the same day.
CICC Macro expects that the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in Q3 may slightly decline, but the nominal GDP growth rate is expected to improve marginally. Regarding consumption, the gradual phasing out of trade-in policies may lead to a slowdown in retail sales growth. However, driven by the recovery in the global manufacturing cycle and the timing shift of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, exports in September have shown resilience, which is expected to boost improvements in industrial value-added growth.
The Q3 earnings season for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks has reached its peak, with Tesla, Intel, and others set to announce their results.
This week, the earnings seasons in both China and the U.S. are gradually reaching their climax, with the market paying close attention. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 、 $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $IBM Corp(IBM.US)$ The earnings performance will provide investors with a deeper insight into the profitability landscape of U.S. companies.
The market is focused on the progress of Tesla's FSD and orders for Intel's AI chips. The effectiveness of IBM’s transformation in AI enterprise services is also noteworthy. According to CNBC analysis, the revenue contribution of IBM's watsonx platform in the enterprise market will be a key indicator in determining the success or failure of its AI strategy.
Additionally, $Coca-Cola(KO.US)$ 、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ 、 $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ 、 $Blackstone(BX.US)$ The latest financial reports of multiple companies will be released. In the Hong Kong stock market, CATL (03750.HK)、 $WUXI APPTEC(02359.HK)$、 $China Telecom (00728.HK)$ 、 $China Unicom (00762.HK)$ 、 $China Shenhua (01088.HK)$ Other companies will also announce their earnings.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Upcoming Week
Further Reading:[Prize] Multiple Highlights! Tesla and Netflix Lead the "Major Test," Weekly Earnings Snapshot (October 20 - October 24)
Monday, October 20
Keywords: China GDP, real estate development investment, retail sales, and other key economic data; CATL performance
In terms of data, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy. China will release several key economic indicators on the same day, including GDP, real estate development investment, retail sales, and value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size.
Regarding earnings, CATL (03750.HK) 、 JL Mag Rare-Earth Co., Ltd. (06680.HK) will announce its financial results.
In terms of new listings, $Jushuitan (06687.HK)$ The lottery results will be announced.
Tuesday, October 21
Keywords: Federal Reserve holds payment innovation conference; Netflix, Coca-Cola earnings
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivered the opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Board Payment Innovation Conference.
Regarding earnings, $Coca-Cola(KO.US)$ 、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ 、 $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$、 $China Telecom (00728.HK)$ Companies such as Tesla and IBM Corp will announce their latest earnings.
In terms of new listings, $Jushuitan (06687.HK)$ will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, $Fibocom Wireless (00638.HK)$ The lottery results will be announced.
Wednesday, October 22
Keywords: Tesla, IBM Corp earnings
Regarding earnings, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 、 $IBM Corp(IBM.US)$ 、 AT&T (T.US) 、 $QuantumScape(QS.US)$ 、 $China Unicom (00762.HK)$ The latest earnings of companies such as AT&T will be released.
In the IPO segment,$Fibocom Wireless (00638.HK)$ Fuzhou Aigo Star Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd., a cross-border e-commerce company, is set to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. $AIGO Holding Ltd. (AIGO.US)$is set to be listed on the US stock market.
Thursday, October 23
Keywords: Intel, Ford Motor, American Airlines earnings
Regarding earnings, $T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$ 、 $Blackstone(BX.US)$ 、 $美国航空(AAL.US)$ will release earnings before the US stock market opens, $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $Ford Motor(F.US)$ will release earnings after the US stock market closes.
Friday, October 24
Keywords: US September CPI, S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI Preliminary; Wuxi Apptec, China Shenhua earnings
In terms of data, the following figures will be released: U.S. September unadjusted CPI year-over-year, U.S. September seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month, S&P Global's preliminary manufacturing and services PMI for October, and the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October.
Regarding earnings, $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ 、 $General Dynamics (GD.US)$ 、 $WUXI APPTEC(02359.HK)$ 、 $China Shenhua (01088.HK)$ Companies will release their earnings results.
In terms of new stocks, Monkey Tree, a provider of English learning centers for children in Hong Kong, $Monkey Tree Investment Ltd.(MKTR.US)$ is set to be listed on the US stock market.
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In the new week, I wish fellow investors successful investments!
Editor /rice
