Morgan Stanley has appointed Adam Jonas, an analyst well-known for his bullish stance on Tesla, to the newly created position of 'Global Physical AI and Robotics Strategist.' He predicts that by 2045, the 'extraterrestrial economy,' comprising flying cars, robotics, and space technology, will surpass the current global economic output of approximately $110 trillion. By 2040, the annual revenue from the low-altitude flight economy alone could exceed $4 trillion, equivalent to the size of today’s global automotive market.
After successfully predicting the rise of $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ and SpaceX, one of Wall Street's most renowned automotive analysts is now urging investors to shift their focus from the ground to the skies, and even further into the future.
Morgan Stanley's star analyst Adam Jonas is outlining a new trillion-dollar investment blueprint, centered on what he calls the 'extraterrestrial economy.' He believes that an entirely new economic domain driven by Physical AI—spanning flying cars, humanoid robots, and brain-computer interfaces—will be the defining opportunity of the next era, following the internet.
On October 13, according to The Information, Morgan Stanley appointed Jonas to a newly created position—Global Physical AI and Robotics Strategist. Jonas promptly made his signature bold prediction: by 2045, the scale of the 'extraterrestrial economy' will surpass today’s global economy of approximately $110 trillion. Of this, the low-altitude mobility market, consisting of electric helicopters and similar vehicles, will generate annual revenues exceeding $4 trillion by 2040.
However, this forward-thinking vision has also drawn skepticism from the market. Jonas admitted that some clients regard him as 'crazy,' looking at him as if he were a monster. Yet, Jonas is not surprised. He firmly believes that the impact of Physical AI on the world will rival the invention of electricity and will reshape nearly every industrial sector, from agriculture to aviation.
The New Frontier: From Automotive to Physical AI
Jonas’s new role marks a significant shift in his professional focus. He defines 'Physical AI' as 'anything capable of moving, navigating, or manipulating three-dimensional space.'
This transition officially took effect in August this year. Prior to this, Jonas, as an automotive industry analyst, had already begun frequently questioning automotive company executives about Physical AI product planning during his research and conference calls.
“Discussing a world without Physical AI is like discussing a world without electricity,” Jonas stated.
He believes that this is not just about defining markets or economies but shaping the trajectory of civilization. Morgan Stanley has also released a list of companies called 'Humanoid Robots 100,' highlighting its focus on this field.
Trillion-Dollar Blueprint: The Skies and the 'Exo-Economy'
Jonas's bold forecast is based on observations of the inefficient use of existing airspace. Using commercial flights in the sky as an example, he performed mathematical calculations and pointed out that at any given time, the total number of people airborne globally is approximately equivalent to the population of Houston.
"Across the entire Earth's atmosphere, there’s only a population the size of Kansas City. That’s nothing," he said, considering this 'empty sky' as the upcoming battleground.
He predicts that within the next one to two decades, electric helicopters (electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, or eVTOLs) will transport paying passengers along invisible aerial corridors above cities, ushering in a vibrant new era of low-altitude transportation.
History Repeats Itself? From Skepticism to Acclaim
Jonas is no stranger to current skepticism. He recalled that in 2011, when he publicly predicted Tesla's stock price would double to $70, the industry largely dismissed him as 'complacent.'
Similarly, when he began studying SpaceX and autonomous vehicles, clients reacted with, "That’s insane." However, these seemingly radical views eventually gained market validation.
Jonas believes history is repeating itself. He noted that while some clients are solely focused on earnings for the week or quarter, others have started building trading strategies based on his long-term vision. "In a way, we’re trying to give people’s minds a jolt," he said.
He believes that over time, clients will gradually come to understand and embrace this new trend, much like they did with his predictions about Tesla and autonomous driving. Jonas’s optimism isn’t purely speculative. He pointed out that a series of tangible developments are supporting his theory.
According to reports, electric air taxi developers Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are both expected to receive federal certification next year and commence commercial passenger flights.
In the robotics sector, Tesla, Apptronik (backed by Google), and China's XPeng have all unveiled more advanced humanoid robots and plan to commercialize them soon.
Moreover, Waymo and Tesla's autonomous taxis have been deployed in more cities across the United States, while the widespread use of drones on the battlefield in Ukraine has fundamentally transformed the landscape of modern warfare.
Editor /rice
