October 13th report: The cryptocurrency market has rebounded. As of press time,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ fell by 0.53%, trading at $114,605.56, with a nearly 3% increase in the past 24 hours; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ declined by 0.12%, trading at $4,129.87, with over an 8% increase in the past 24 hours.
Key focus
Forbes: Trump is one of the largest Bitcoin investors in the United States, holding approximately USD 870 million worth of Bitcoin.
According to Forbes, U.S. President Trump holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin, estimated at $870 million, making him one of the largest Bitcoin investors globally. The reason his investment has remained so discreet is that he indirectly holds Bitcoin through shares in the Trump Media & Technology Group, which operates Truth Social. Despite the company’s annual revenue being less than $4 million, its market capitalization on Nasdaq has reached tens of billions of dollars. Earlier this year, the company also ventured into the cryptocurrency sector. In May, it raised $2.3 billion through heavy borrowing and the sale of overvalued stock.
In July, the company purchased an additional $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. The stock sale diluted Trump's stake in the company from 52% to 41%. Since the Trump Media & Technology Group made its significant investment in Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin has risen by approximately 6%. This gives Trump a 41% share of an estimated $2.1 billion Bitcoin reserve, with his personal stake valued at around $870 million.
Analysis: The impact of the crypto market's 'October 11 flash crash' may take days or even weeks to fully materialize.
Following the 'October 11 flash crash,' the cryptocurrency market has begun to recover some of its losses, but the full impact of the event may take days or even weeks to become apparent. Industry insiders have shared their views: 1. Edward Chin, CEO of the crypto hedge fund Parataxis, expressed doubts that news of some funds being liquidated or market makers suffering heavy losses will emerge in the coming days or weeks. 2. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, pointed out that Bitcoin’s next majorsupport levellevel is at $100,000, and breaking below this level would mark the end of the bull market cycle over the past three years. 3. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of Kronos Research, believes that this plunge was triggered by tariff concerns but fueled by excessive institutional leverage, underscoring the close ties between cryptocurrencies and the macroeconomic environment.
Ark Invest: Based on cyclical patterns, the current BTC bull market cycle is in its late stage.
In its recently released Q3 Bitcoin Quarterly Report, Ark Invest stated that in the past two halving cycles, Bitcoin reached its peak approximately 530 days (or around 18 months) after the halving date. In the previous two cycles, Bitcoin's peaks occurred in December 2017 at a price of $19,587 and in November 2021 at $67,589. The most recent halving date for Bitcoin was April 20, 2024, which is nearly 18 months ago, indicating that, at least from a cyclical perspective, the current BTC bull market cycle is in its later stages.
Cryptocurrency 'Spring' Kicks Off in Q4: Supported by Historical Trends, a Dovish Fed, and ETF Demand
Drawing lessons from history, as the final quarter of 2025 approaches, investors are entering a “spring” for the cryptocurrency market—particularly Bitcoin (BTC), which has averaged a return of 79% in the fourth quarter since 2013. According to a new report by CoinDesk Indices, several factors could help this trend repeat itself, including a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, a surge in institutional interest, and new regulatory momentum in the United States. The Federal Reserve's latest rate cut has lowered interest rates to their lowest level in nearly three years, setting the stage for broader risk-averse sentiment. Institutions responded positively in the third quarter: total inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs exceeded $18 billion, while publicly traded companies now hold more than 5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Altcoins have also made progress, with over 50 public companies now holding non-Bitcoin tokens on their balance sheets, 40 of which joined in the last quarter alone. By the end of the third quarter, Bitcoin rose 8%, closing at $114,000, primarily driven by corporate adoption of Bitcoin. With expectations of further rate cuts and growing interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation, CoinDesk Indices forecasts that Bitcoin’s rally will continue into the end of the year. Looking ahead, the approval of universal listing standards for crypto ETFs, alongside the emergence of multi-asset and equity-based ETFs, could further accelerate capital inflows. In summary, the fourth quarter presents a unique set of “tailwinds” for traders: a favorable macroeconomic environment, deepening institutional participation, and renewed interest in altcoins.
Morgan Stanley lifts eligibility restrictions for wealth clients holding crypto funds.
According to CNBC, $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ The firm informed its financial advisors on Friday that it is expanding cryptocurrency investment access to all clients and allowing such investments in any type of account, including retirement accounts. Starting October 15, financial advisors will be able to recommend cryptocurrency funds to any client. Previously, this option was limited to clients with higher risk tolerance, assets of at least $1.5 million, and who wished to invest in cryptocurrencies through taxable brokerage accounts.
According to sources, as Morgan Stanley removes qualification requirements for cryptocurrency funds, the firm will rely on automated monitoring processes to ensure that clients do not over-concentrate their investments in this highly volatile asset class. The bank's Global Investment Committee recently released a model suggesting initial allocations of up to 4% for cryptocurrencies, depending on goals ranging from 'wealth preservation' to 'opportunistic growth.' Sources indicate that, for now, financial advisors are still limited to recommending Blackrock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin funds, but Morgan Stanley is monitoring industry developments and considering adding other cryptocurrencies to these products. They added that clients can also request investments in any listed cryptocurrency exchange-traded products.
Garrett Jin's First Response to Rumors: No Connection with the Trump Family, Not Insider Trading
Garrett Jin, the whale who previously made a high-profile sale of over $4.23 billion worth of BTC to switch positions into ETH, released three consecutive posts on his personal X in response to market rumors. The details are as follows: First post: “Hi CZ, thank you for sharing my personal information. To clarify, I have no connection with the Trump family or Donald Trump Jr.—this is not insider trading.” Second post: “This fund does not belong to me—it belongs to my clients, and we run nodes for them while providing internal research and insights.” Third post: “I would like to briefly share three points: 1) I will explain our bearish view that was published at the time; 2) My thoughts on the 1011 event; 3) My reflections on how the entire industry can improve.”
Russia to Allow Banks to Engage in Cryptocurrency Operations with Strict Limitations
According to a report by Cryptopolitan, Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), revealed at the Finopolis Forum that the Russian central bank has decided to permit banks to conduct cryptocurrency-related operations but will introduce stringent capital limits and reserve requirements. Chistyukhin acknowledged: "We maintain a conservative stance. We are considering, for instance, whether incorporating cryptocurrencies into balance sheets truly falls within the scope of banking activities." However, he also admitted: "After discussions with specialized banking professionals, we believe it is possible that allowing banks to participate in such business might be meaningful."
Chistyukhin further noted that the Central Bank of Russia aims to pass comprehensive legislation regulating cryptocurrency investments next year. This will enable authorities to implement a licensing mechanism, under which the first licensed service providers could enter the market by the end of the year. The proposal by Chistyukhin to expedite the approval of appropriate cryptocurrency legislation has been supported by his superior, Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia.
Abu Dhabi Airport to Pilot Stablecoin and Cryptocurrency Payments
According to a report by Cryptopolitan, Abu Dhabi Airport signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Abu Dhabi-based investment entity Al Hail Holding to explore next-generation payment solutions, including stablecoins and cryptocurrencies/digital assets. Al Hail Holding, which previously invested in digital bank Zand, will collaborate with Abu Dhabi Airport to develop a regulated digital wallet for inbound travelers heading to Zayed International Airport. This initiative aims to enhance the UAE’s position as a global hub for tourism, fintech, and sustainable transportation. Additionally, the collaboration will encompass artificial intelligence system integration and sustainable infrastructure development to improve operational efficiency.
Tether CEO: Bitcoin and Gold Will Outlast Any Other Currency
"Bitcoin and gold will have a longer 'lifespan' than any other currency." This statement by Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, made on the X platform on October 12, has sparked widespread resonance in both the cryptocurrency and traditional financial sectors. It is not only an affirmation of the value of these two assets but also a significant judgment on the evolution of the current monetary system. As the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin, USDT, Tether itself holds substantial allocations in bitcoin and gold. According to publicly available data, Tether holds over 100,000 bitcoins (valued at more than USD 10 billion) and nearly 80 tons of gold (worth approximately USD 8 billion), making it one of the largest holders of gold outside of banks and nations.
European Commission: EU’s Cryptocurrency Rules Are Sufficient to Address Stablecoin Risks
According to a Reuters report, the European Commission stated on Friday that European cryptocurrency regulations are sufficient to address stablecoin risks. Following calls from the European Central Bank for additional safeguards, no major adjustments are deemed necessary. Europe has implemented landmark cryptocurrency-specific legislation, but Brussels lawmakers face pressure from the European Central Bank to block the 'multi-location issuance' model for stablecoins. The crux of the debate is whether multinational stablecoin companies can treat tokens issued within the EU as interchangeable with those held outside the bloc.
On Tuesday, six cryptocurrency industry associations, including Circle, sent a letter to the European Commission urging the issuance of guidance to confirm the multi-location issuance model and clarify its operational framework under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). A spokesperson for the European Commission stated that MiCA provides a robust and proportionate framework to address stablecoin risks, with clarifications being expedited. The European Systemic Risk Board noted inherent risks in the multi-location issuance structure, while the European Central Bank expressed concerns about potential reserve runs. Stablecoin issuers, however, assert they hold sufficient reserves to meet redemptions.
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and other leading global banks are planning to jointly launch a stablecoin project.
According to market reports, leading global banks are planning to jointly launch a stablecoin project. The consortium includes $Banco Santander (SAN.US)$ 、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Barclays (BCS.US)$ 、 $BNP PARIBAS SPON (BNPQY.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ 、 $Deutsche Bank (DB.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、 $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG.US)$ 、 $The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.US)$ and $UBS Group (UBS.US)$ 。
Analysis: Bitcoin Must Establish a Defense System by 2026 to Counter Quantum Attacks
According to research by Deloitte, approximately 25% of Bitcoin could be exposed to quantum attack risks. If these Bitcoins are not transferred to quantum-resistant addresses in time, the advent of powerful quantum computers could result in losses amounting to hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset management firm Capriole Investment and a long-time Bitcoin advocate, noted that the threat of quantum computing is much closer than commonly perceived, urging the community to build defenses by 2026. He questioned whether some investors are deliberately downplaying the threat to maintain optimistic expectations and warned that falling behind in the quantum technology race could lead to Bitcoin's value collapsing to zero.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Normalization of Cross-Border Credit Information Interconnectivity Pilot in Greater Bay Area, with Blockchain Nodes Established for Data Verification Platform in Hong Kong and Shenzhen
According to Caixin, Norman Chan, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, stated that the HKMA and the People's Bank of China have decided to normalize the “Cross-Border Credit Information Interconnectivity” pilot program starting in 2024. This pilot covers the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and will initially be implemented in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. Participating institutions include seven local retail banks in Hong Kong such as HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Bank of China (Hong Kong), along with three local credit reporting agencies.
It is reported that the pilot has incorporated the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cross-Border Data Verification Platform, which uses blockchain technology to establish one node each in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. Users can independently obtain personal or corporate data from data providers and upload it to a designated platform, where a 64-bit hash code (Hash Code) is generated using an encryption algorithm. The cross-border party (data user) matches the same 64-bit hash code to enable legitimate cross-border data transfer while ensuring that the data cannot be tampered with by users.
India’s Tax Authorities Are Investigating Over 400 Binance Traders for Tax Evasion
According to The Block, Indian tax authorities are investigating over 400 high-net-worth Binance traders suspected of evading taxes during the 2022-23 and 2024-25 periods. India’s Central Board of Direct Taxes has internally instructed city-level departments to report relevant actions by October 17. Cryptocurrency traders in India are subject to a 1% withholding tax on every cryptocurrency transaction (included in the final bill), a 30% tax on profits, and additional levies, resulting in an effective maximum tax rate of approximately 42.7%.
Coinbase plans to launch an American Express card, offering up to 4% Bitcoin cashback.
According to Coindesk reports, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ plans to launch a brand-new American Express card in the U.S. this fall. This card features hexadecimal data from Bitcoin's genesis block, paying tribute to the origins and ideals of cryptocurrency. The product will be exclusively available to Coinbase One subscribers and offers up to 4% Bitcoin cashback, adjusted based on the assets held. Cardholders will not incur foreign transaction fees and can settle balances using bank accounts or cryptocurrencies on the platform. Additionally, cardholders will enjoy standard American Express benefits, including exclusive offers and events.
The market value of Strategy's holdings has evaporated by more than USD 8 billion this week, and Michael Saylor stated that BTC will not be subject to tariffs.
Despite market volatility in the crypto sector leading to $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ ’s Bitcoin holdings losing over $8 billion in market value last week (dropping from over $80 billion on Tuesday to approximately $71.93 billion), the company’s Bitcoin position still reflects unrealized gains of more than $24.5 billion with a return of 51.91% to date. Strategy currently holds 640,031 Bitcoins, with a total investment of approximately $47.35 billion and an average price of around $73,983 per Bitcoin. Founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted on X that Bitcoin will not be subject to tariffs.
Some cryptocurrency prices have become unpegged, with Binance paying $283 million in compensation.
According to Jinshi Data on October 13, cryptocurrency exchange Binance stated that after last Friday's market turbulence caused three types of crypto assets to depeg, the company has paid a total compensation of $283 million to users. This decline appears to have triggered the depegging of three asset classes: Ethena's stablecoin USDe, Binance-issued Solana liquid staking token BNSOL, and Wrapped Beacon liquid staking token WBETH.
USDe, which was originally pegged to $1, briefly fell below $0.66 on Binance’s platform. Binance stated that compensation includes futures, leverage, and lending users who used USDe, BNSOL, or WBETH as collateral between 21:36 and 22:16 UTC on the day, as well as users who suffered verified losses due to internal transfers or redemptions. (The Block)
UK Cryptocurrency Exchange Plans to Add Stablecoin Trading Pairs; September Trading Volume Exceeds $1 Billion for the First Time
Fusion Digital Assets, the cryptocurrency spot trading platform under UK-based TP ICAP, plans to begin offering stablecoin trading pairs as its growing transaction volumes reflect a broader boom in the digital asset space. Simon Forster, Co-Head of Global Digital Assets at TP ICAP, stated in an interview that Fusion Digital Assets currently provides spot trading in Bitcoin and Ether for institutional market participants and plans to add these additional assets in the first half of next year. This initiative comes as the exchange announced that its monthly trading volume exceeded $1 billion for the first time in September. The world's largest interbank broker noted in a statement that this represents five times the trading volume handled a year ago. The London-based company stated that over the past 12 months, notional trading volumes have grown by an average of 85% per month.
Binance: A compensation payout of $283 million related to理财产品脱锚has been completed, with the overall compensation amount still being calculated and processed.
In an official announcement, Binance confirmed after reviewing the events that from 04:50 to 06:00 UTC on October 11, Binance’s core contract and spot matching engine, as well as API trading, remained stable. After 05:18 UTC on October 11, some functional modules of the platform experienced brief slowdowns, and certain wealth management products were depegged due to sharp market fluctuations. In response, Binance initiated and completed compensation arrangements for affected users. Regarding compensation for理财产品脱锚, it must be clarified that external claims about “depegging causing a market crash” do not align with the facts.
Following the extreme market downturn, Binance-related wealth management products (USDE, BNSOL, and WBETH) reached their lowest point between 05:20 and 05:21 UTC on October 11, with extreme depegging occurring after 05:36 UTC. The platform decided to assume full responsibility for losses incurred from the liquidation of some positions in contracts, leverage, and lending due to the extreme market conditions. Compensation was distributed in two batches, totaling approximately $283 million. Regarding claims related to internal transfers and delays in wealth management redemptions, temporary slowdowns during periods of high volatility led to users being unable to cover margin calls promptly. Users suffering actual losses will receive appropriate compensation based on review results. Ongoing audits and transparent disclosures are in progress, with the overall compensation amount still being calculated and processed.
Analysis: CZ Wallet Showed No Large Sell-offs During Market Decline; Coinbase Suspected of 'Transferring' Unexecutable Trades Through Market Makers
According to analysis posted by Meta Financial AI on the X platform, Binance was not the instigator of the sell-off and panic event, as its infrastructure faced one of the largest sell-off pressures in history. However, analysis shows that during the market decline... $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ It is suspected that trades unable to be executed on the platform were sent to other exchanges via market makers. All of Binance's cold wallets are publicly disclosed, and these wallets have not exhibited any 'selling high and buying low' behavior. Aside from the Bitcoin wallet, Binance’s other major asset wallets also remain inactive.
Moreover, regarding the rumor that 'CZ, as the largest holder of BNB, has liquidated his position,' it seems an attempt to shift the blame for the market downturn onto external factors. Neither CZ nor any wallets associated with him have engaged in any large-scale selling activities. However, analysis revealed that Coinbase transferred 1,066 bitcoins from its cold wallet to a hot wallet prior to the market decline. Additionally, by analyzing single transactions exceeding 500 BTC within 24 hours, it was found that Binance had the smallest sell-off volume. Reportedly, He Yi responded to related analytical comments by saying: "Learned."
Editor/Joe
