Overview of Key Events This Week
Trump Tariffs Return, Monday Faces Turmoil: Will TACO Trade Reappear?
Trump recently announced that he will impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, stating that this move is a response to China's recent tightening of rare earth export regulations. Affected by Trump's tariff threats, the U.S. stock market experienced a repeat of the "April plunge" from six months ago. High-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, along with two key economic indicators—crude oil and copper—plummeted, while the prices of U.S. Treasuries and gold surged. Analysts noted that unless there is particularly significant positive news before Monday's pre-market session, domestic stock markets may experience sharp fluctuations.
Currently, the market is interpreting events according to the script from April, anticipating the return of the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out, referring to Trump's tendency to back down after making tough statements). CICC noted that the fundamental driver of market movements remains the progress of tariff negotiations, particularly how compromises are reached before the APEC summit and November 1, which remains the core issue.
In addition to macro-level factors, investors need to closely monitor several key levels in the indices.support levelCICC research found that after reciprocal tariffs were implemented on April 2, the VIX index spiked to 60, while it currently stands at 21.7. The S&P 500 stabilized only after falling to its 120-week moving average; now, this level corresponds to 5420 points (17% below the current level), with key support levels ahead at 6500 and 6200. The Hang Seng Index stabilized after dropping to its 250-day and 60-week moving averages, which now correspond to around 22500 points (14% below the current level), with upcoming key support levels at 25700 and 24500.
Data Drought Continues: U.S. CPI Release Delayed Until October 24
As of the time of writing, there is no sign that the U.S. Congress will reach a temporary spending bill, and the U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in the release of several key data points. The relatively relaxed attitude of U.S. politicians towards the government shutdown is partly due to the strong performance of U.S. stock indices. However, a reversal of the current bullish trend—such as sharp declines over several consecutive trading days—could serve as a powerful catalyst to push negotiations back on track.
Despite the partial government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is still preparing to release key inflation data ahead of the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28-29. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, originally scheduled for release on October 15, will now be published on October 24 at 8:30 AM Beijing time.
The key window for signaling before the Fed’s October meeting has arrived, with Powell and several other Fed officials set to deliver speeches.
As the last week before the Fed's October interest rate meeting quiet period begins, Fed officials will be making frequent public appearances. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak early Wednesday. Bowman and Waller, who are considered candidates for the next Fed Chair, will also deliver speeches, providing clues about the Fed’s interest rate outlook to the market.
As highlighted in the recently released minutes from the September meeting, divisions within the committee may run deeper than the voting results suggest, casting a shadow over prospects for rate cuts at the final two meetings of the year (in October and December). Compounding the issue, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of critical data such as the September nonfarm payrolls report, depriving the Fed of up-to-date economic indicators to support its interest rate decisions.
Most analysts have noted that the unpredictability of the Fed’s rate-cutting path is likely to increase significantly. Current factors such as political interference have introduced non-economic considerations into the Fed’s policy decisions, while the coexistence of “stagflation” risks and asset bubbles has forced the Fed to strike a difficult balance between conflicting objectives. This complexity will make it harder for market participants to accurately assess the Fed’s policy intentions and timing, potentially leading to a significant rise in financial market volatility, which could in turn influence investment and consumption decisions in the real economy.
The Q3 earnings season kicks off, with Taiwan Semiconductor and major Wall Street firms set to announce their results.
With the U.S. government shutdown interrupting the release of some key macroeconomic data, investors will focus on quarterly earnings reports from major banks in the coming week to help gauge the health of the U.S. economy. $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US) was one of the major banks to release its earnings report on Tuesday, kicking off the earnings season; Bank of America (BAC.US) and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) are scheduled to announce their results before the market opens on Wednesday.
As a key part of the market's "AI narrative," companies producing AI chips for NVIDIA and AMD $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Earnings will be disclosed on Thursday.
Previously, Taiwan Semiconductor's Q3 revenue was reported at NT$989.92 billion, representing a 30% year-on-year increase and surpassing market expectations. Driven by robust global demand for AI chips, particularly strong orders from clients such as NVIDIA and AMD, the company delivered an impressive performance. The market will now focus on its profit details and future earnings guidance to assess whether AI-driven growth momentum can be sustained, providing crucial insights into the outlook for the global semiconductor industry.
In addition, the lithography giant $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ is set to release its latest quarterly earnings this week, alongside other companies including healthcare firm $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US)$ , and asset management firm $Blackrock(BLK.US)$ 。
Data from the London Stock Exchange IBES shows that S&P 500 companies are expected to report an 8.8% increase in overall earnings for the third quarter compared to the same period last year. Given that U.S. stock valuations are nearing their highest levels in five years and investor enthusiasm for AI is running high, market concerns have arisen. A strong third-quarter earnings season will be critical for maintaining upward momentum in the stock market.
NVIDIA’s Open Compute Project 2025 Global Summit and Oracle’s AI World Conference kick off on Monday
On the corporate events front, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The Open Compute Project Global Summit 2025, Oracle (ORCL.US) The AI World Conference will kick off on Monday.
NVIDIA Open Compute Project Summit 2025 will be held at the McEnery Convention Center in San Jose, USA, from October 13 to 16, 2025. The summit focuses on open data center design and AI infrastructure innovation, where NVIDIA will showcase how its data center architecture supports complex AI workloads and discuss the future development direction of open data centers.
Oracle AI World will take place in Las Vegas from October 13 to 16, 2025. The conference will feature live demonstrations and Oracle product innovations, showcasing breakthrough advancements in cloud technology — spanning applications, infrastructure, data management, and AI.
Additionally, $Salesforce(CRM.US)$ Salesforce's Dreamforce 2025 conference will debut on Tuesday. $Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.US)$ / $Google-C(GOOG.US)$ CEO Sundar Pichai will deliver a speech.
Political instability in Japan and France continues to persist.
It has been a week since Sanae Takachi won the leadership election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), but her path to governance is already fraught with challenges. With the dissolution of the long-standing ruling coalition between the LDP and Komeito, Takachi faces two options: either seek to form a coalition government with other parties or resign, allowing the LDP to select a new leader capable of rebuilding the relationship between the LDP and Komeito.
The split between the LDP and Komeito had a slightly positive effect on the yen, but Japan’s outlook has become more uncertain. As the yen approaches the psychologically critical level of 155 once again, investors are on high alert for potential intervention by the Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in October appears slim. Economists at Mizuho Securities warned that if escalating political instability leads to government paralysis, it could trigger a triple sell-off in stocks, bonds, and the currency.
The relative calm in the Eurozone was disrupted by political turmoil in France. On October 10 local time, French President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister, just days after Lecornu had resigned from the same position. Reports suggest that Macron hopes Lecornu can secure sufficient support from the deeply divided parliament to pass the fiscal budget for 2026.
As the political deadlock in France tests the economic prospects of the Eurozone, the euro has underperformed against the US dollar. According to analysis by French media, there is a significant possibility that Lecornu could face impeachment, leaving France's political situation still unstable. Currently, the far-right National Rally and the far-left “La France Insoumise” have explicitly stated their intention to impeach the new Prime Minister, while the left-wing Ecological Party and the French Communist Party have also announced plans to vote no confidence. The attitudes of the right-wing Republicans and the left-wing Socialist Party may prove pivotal in determining Lecornu’s fate.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Upcoming Week
Further Reading:[Prize] Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off! Bank Stocks Report in Droves, Weekly Earnings Update (October 13-17)
Monday, October 13
Keywords: NVIDIA Open Compute Project Global Summit 2025, Oracle AI World Conference
In terms of financial events, the World Bank and IMF are hosting their 2025 Annual Meetings Autumn Session until October 18, where global financial leaders will gather; the NVIDIA Open Compute Project Global Summit 2025 and the Oracle AI World Conference will both commence on Monday.
OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (the exact publication time of the report is to be determined, but it is generally published between 18:00-21:00 Beijing Time).
Additionally, the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics will be announced.
Tuesday, October 14
Keywords: Powell to deliver a speech, JPMorgan, Citi, and others to release earnings
Regarding earnings, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、 Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US) 、 $Blackrock(BLK.US)$ 、 $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US)$ is scheduled to release earnings before the US stock market opens.
In terms of economic events, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at an event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics; Kazuo Ueda, a 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President, will deliver a speech; Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will also speak.
US President Trump will meet with Argentine President Milei; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will visit the United States from October 14 to 19.
In terms of new listings, $Xuanzhu Bio-B(02575.HK)$ The lottery results will be announced today.
October 15, Wednesday
Keywords: China's September CPI, PPI data, ASML Holding earnings
On the data front, China’s September CPI and PPI figures will be released.
Regarding earnings, Morgan Stanley (MS.US)、 Bank of America (BAC.US) 、 $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 、 $Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US)$ are scheduled to release their earnings before the US stock market opens. $United Airlines (UAL.US)$ will be released after the U.S. stock market closes.
In terms of economic events, Fed Governor Waller will speak at a panel event on payments hosted by the Institute of International Finance; Collins, 2025 FOMC voter and President of the Boston Fed, will deliver remarks.
In terms of new listings, $Xuanzhu Bio-B(02575.HK)$ listed in Hong Kong today; $Yunji (02670.HK)$ will announce the results of the lottery for share allocation.
Thursday, October 16
Keywords: Taiwan Semiconductor earnings, U.S. September retail sales month-over-month, Fed Beige Book on economic conditions
In terms of data, releases will include the U.S. September retail sales month-over-month, the U.S. October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the U.S. October NAHB Housing Market Index.
Regarding earnings, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、 $Bank of New York Mellon (BK.US)$ 、 $U.S. Bancorp (USB.US)$ is scheduled to release earnings before the US stock market opens.
On the economic events front, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book; Christopher Waller, a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair, will deliver a speech; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the Nomura Research Forum; Raphael Bostic, a 2027 FOMC voting member and President of the Atlanta Fed, will also make remarks.
In terms of new listings, $Yunji (02670.HK)$ listed in Hong Kong today; $HaiXi Pharma (02637.HK)$ will announce the results of the lottery for share allocation.
Friday, October 17
Keywords: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Press Conference, Zijin Mining's earnings
In terms of data, key figures such as the annualized total of U.S. new home starts in September, the total number of U.S. building permits in September, the month-over-month rate of the U.S. import price index in September, and the month-over-month rate of U.S. industrial production in September will be released.
Regarding earnings, $American Express (AXP.US)$ is set to release its earnings before the U.S. stock market opens; Hong Kong stocks $Zijin Mining (02899.HK)$ Will release earnings today.
In terms of financial events, there will be a press conference with G20 finance ministers and central bank governors.
Regarding new stock listings,$HaiXi Pharma (02637.HK)$Listed in Hong Kong today.
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In the new week, I wish fellow investors successful investments!
Editor/jayden
