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Market Overview
The absence of the重磅 US non-farm payroll data saw the S&P 500 narrowly achieve a six-day winning streak and hit a new high. The Nasdaq turned negative after the release of the US ISM Services data. NVIDIA retreated from its record high but still gained over 5% for the week. Palantir fell more than 7%. USA Rare Earth surged 14%. The pan-European stock index rose nearly 3% for the week, marking its largest weekly gain in five months.
Following the release of the US ISM data, the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds hit a fresh intraday low. US Treasuries posted their best single-week performance in a month.
Bitcoin tested highs above $124,000 during the session, nearing its record peak, with a weekly gain of over 10%.
Oil prices recorded their first weekly gain this week; however, Brent crude still fell more than 8% cumulatively, marking its largest weekly decline in three months. Gold futures closed at a new high for the fourth day of the week, extending their rally to seven consecutive weeks. Silver rebounded over 3%, reaching a 14-year high. Copper futures in New York gained over 7% for the week.
During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong stocks paused their rally, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.9%. Most tech stocks declined, with Kuaishou dropping nearly 4%, while Alibaba's share price continued to reach new highs.
News
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce responded to reporters' questions regarding Mexico's recent initiation of multiple anti-dumping investigations against China.
Cathie Wood, bullish on China's tech stocks and the AI narrative, continues to increase her stakes in Alibaba and Baidu this week! Copper prices hit a new high for the year, but 'without China, there is no perfect bull market.'
The US September ISM Services PMI came in at 50, significantly missing expectations, with business activity hitting its worst level since 2020. Non-farm payroll data has not yet been released; Chicago Fed President: September unemployment rate expected at 4.3%, labor market remains stable.
Milan, a Fed Governor trusted by Trump, suggests rising rents could lead to a shift in inflation expectations. The Fed Vice Chair warns of dual challenges in employment and inflation, while the Dallas Fed President calls for cautious rate cuts. The “New Fed Wire” criticizes leading Fed Chair candidate Hassett.
The White House is concerned that a government shutdown could delay the release of economic data, as Democrats block the appropriations bill once again.
Trump revisits the idea of 'universal cash handouts': considering using tariff revenues for tax rebates, approximately $1,000 to $2,000 per person.
Reports suggest Trump is considering significant tariff reductions on US-made cars, sending auto stocks higher.
Progress on Middle East’s 'investment-for-chips' deal reportedly slow, with Jensen Huang expressing frustration.
OpenAI’s limited-edition Sora gains popularity, topping Apple’s US App Store charts on its fourth day.
The iPhone 17 launch sees strong sales; Morgan Stanley turns more optimistic: with 1 billion legacy devices still in use, the iPhone 18 is expected to be even stronger.
Market Closing Report
European and US stock markets: The S&P 500 rose by 0.01%, closing at 6715.79 points, with a cumulative weekly increase of 1.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.51%, closing at 46758.28 points, with a cumulative weekly gain of 1.10%. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.28%, closing at 22780.506 points, with a cumulative weekly rise of 1.32%. The European STOXX 600 Index closed up 0.50% at 570.45 points, continuing to set a new record high, with a cumulative weekly increase of 2.87%.
A-share market is closed.
Bond market: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury benchmark note rose by 3.65 basis points to 4.1192%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 5.63 basis points. The yield on the two-year US Treasury note increased by 3.71 basis points to 3.5759%, with a cumulative weekly drop of 6.71 basis points.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for November rose by 0.66%, ending a streak of four consecutive daily declines, closing at $60.88 per barrel, with a cumulative weekly decline of 7.36%. Brent crude oil futures for December climbed by 0.66%, breaking a four-day losing streak, closing at $64.53 per barrel, with a cumulative weekly drop of 6.77%. COMEX gold futures surged by 2.68%, closing at $3911.20 per ounce.
Key News Details
Global Highlights
In response to a reporter’s question regarding Mexico's recent initiation of multiple anti-dumping investigations against China, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that the Ministry has launched an investigation into trade and investment barriers related to Mexico's proposed tariff increases and other trade and investment restrictions against China, in accordance with relevant provisions of the Foreign Trade Law and the Rules on Investigation of Foreign Trade Barriers. Based on the results and actual circumstances of the investigation, China will take all necessary measures, including those in the areas of trade and investment, to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises.
Betting on the AI narrative of Chinese tech stocks, 'Wooden Sister' continues to increase her stakes in Alibaba and Baidu this week! ARKK, managed by Cathie Wood, has continued to increase its holdings of Chinese stocks this week, purchasing approximately $12.34 million worth of Alibaba shares and about $16.27 million worth of Baidu shares. This move comes amid a strong rebound in both stocks, with Alibaba's share price having surged 112% so far this year.
Copper prices hit a new high for the year, but 'without China, there is no perfect bull market.' Recently, LME copper prices soared to $10,500 per ton due to a series of supply disruptions, reaching a new high since May 2024. However, analysts warn that this rally is a fragile 'bad bull market,' whereas a 'good bull market' driven by robust demand tends to be more sustainable. China's demand growth is crucial for maintaining the copper price bull market.
The US September ISM Services PMI came in at 50, significantly missing expectations, with business activity showing the weakest performance since 2020. The US services sector stagnated in September, with weak orders and business activity entering contraction territory for the first time since May 2020. Employment has shrunk for four consecutive months, and the payment price index reached its highest level in three years. Analysts pointed out that the performance of the service sector, the largest component of the US economy, was disappointing. Due to the government shutdown, official data are lacking, so economists and policymakers will rely more on reports from private institutions like the ISM survey to gain insights into the job market and overall economic conditions.
Non-farm data not yet released; Chicago Fed President: September unemployment rate expected at 4.3%, labor market stable. Affected by the delay in the release of the US September non-farm payroll report, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures erased earlier gains before the US stock market opened. Spot gold continued to rise, surpassing $3,880 per ounce, up 0.62% on the day. Meanwhile, an analysis by Goldman Sachs of unemployment claims data across US states showed a slight increase in unemployment claims last week.
Milan, a Fed governor trusted by Trump: Rising rents may lead him to change his inflation expectations. In a media interview on Friday, Milan continued to downplay the risk of tariffs pushing up inflation. He reiterated that stricter immigration policies implemented by President Trump and trends in average rent may help lower housing inflation. However, he also said that if housing costs unexpectedly rise, he would revise his inflation outlook, acknowledging that his stance, which differs from mainstream views, is not 'set in stone.'
Fed Vice Chair warns of dual challenges in employment and inflation; Dallas Fed President calls for cautious rate cuts. On Friday, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson reiterated concerns, stating that the Fed is simultaneously facing two major challenges: a weakening job market and inflation above target. On the same day, Dallas Fed President Logan noted that the severity of the inflation issue outweighs employment concerns, calling for caution regarding further rate cuts.
The 'New Fed Wire' criticizes top Fed chair candidate Hassett. Trump’s chief economic advisor, Hassett, accused the Fed of having a partisan bias, as evidenced by its 2021 inflation forecast errors, and allowing the Biden administration's inflation to spiral out of control; cutting rates before last year's election was intended to support the Democrats. Timiraos pointed out that during Biden's presidency, all five governors were nominated by Trump; Hassett himself praised the rate cut as 'very wise' a year ago. He believes that as a leading candidate for Fed chair, Hassett’s accusations are highly inappropriate.
The White House expressed concerns that the government shutdown could delay the release of economic data, while Democrats again blocked the appropriations bill. The White House warned that the government shutdown has already caused this week’s jobs report to be shelved, and if the shutdown extends, key data such as inflation, consumption, and GDP will also be affected. A White House spokesperson stated that 'the Federal Reserve and markets are forced to fly blind' and blamed the Democrats. Democratic Senator Warren demanded immediate release of the completed employment data, criticizing the government for manipulating public opinion. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats once again blocked the Republicans’ seven-week temporary appropriations bill on Friday, while House Republicans announced late Friday they would not return to Washington next week but would delay their return until after October 13th.
Trump revisits the idea of 'universal cash handouts': Considering using tariff revenues for tax rebates, likely ranging from $1,000 to $2,000. Amid the partial federal government shutdown, Trump again proposed a fiscal plan to distribute $1,000 to $2,000 in cash to the American public using tariff revenues, calling it a 'dividend for the American people.' However, the funding basis for this plan depends on his optimistic forecast of $1 trillion in annual tariff revenue, far exceeding the Treasury Secretary’s prediction of $300 billion to $500 billion.
Media reports suggest Trump is considering significant tariff reductions on domestically produced cars, boosting auto stocks. Reports indicate that President Trump is considering granting substantial tariff reductions on vehicles that undergo final assembly in the United States, covering major manufacturers such as Ford, Toyota, Honda, Tesla, and General Motors. If implemented, this move would extend and expand previous tariff mitigation policies, further incentivizing automakers to produce in the US. Following the news, Ford's stock rose 3.7%, Stellantis gained 3.2%, and General Motors increased by 1.3%.
Much ado about nothing? Slow progress in Middle East 'investment-for-chips' deal reportedly frustrates Jensen Huang. The multi-billion-dollar AI chip export deal between NVIDIA and the UAE is advancing slowly, reportedly leaving Huang feeling frustrated. Announced in May, the agreement involves the UAE committing to invest at least $1 billion in the U.S. by year-end in exchange for NVIDIA chips worth at least $1 billion. With the investment yet to materialize, the completion of the deal appears 'nowhere in sight.'
OpenAI's 'Limited Edition' Sora gains popularity, topping Apple's U.S. App Store charts on its fourth day. The Sora app, powered by the latest model Sora 2, operates on an invitation-only basis, is exclusively available on iOS, and is currently accessible only in the U.S. and Canada. Statistics show that the total number of installations in the first two days reached 164,000. In Apple's App Store free app rankings, OpenAI now occupies two of the top three spots.
iPhone 17 sells like hotcakes; Morgan Stanley turns more optimistic: 1 billion legacy devices remain, iPhone 18 set to be even stronger. Morgan Stanley forecasts that production orders for iPhone 17 may increase from 84-86 million units to over 90 million, with projections for iPhone shipments in fiscal 2026 revised upward to 243 million units. The firm believes the true growth driver will be the iPhone 18 cycle, during which approximately 1 billion older iPhones are expected to enter the upgrade window. Coupled with the launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone, this is anticipated to drive sustained revenue growth into fiscal 2027.
Domestic Companies
Investor buzz around 'Alibaba FOMO': No one is calling it overvalued in the short term! Driven by the AI boom, Alibaba's market capitalization has rebounded by $250 billion this year, fueling FOMO (fear of missing out) among investors. The stock is considered to have further upside potential, with its Hong Kong-listed shares trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 22x, significantly below historical peaks and those of U.S. tech giants. Fund managers believe that with leading large models, cloud infrastructure, and core data, Alibaba remains underweighted by global funds.
Trending on social media: Mixue Group to sell beer! Cross-sector acquisition of Fulu Family sees 'Snow King' venturing into freshly brewed draft beer. In its announcement, Mixue Group stated that following this investment, the company's product categories would expand from freshly made fruit drinks, tea beverages, ice cream, and coffee to include freshly brewed draft beer. Notably, the transaction’s most eye-catching aspect lies in its related-party nature. The announcement explicitly disclosed that Tian Haixia, the actual controller of Fresh Beer Fulu Family, is the spouse of Zhang Hongfu, Mixue Group’s executive director and CEO. Moreover, Tian Haixia also controls Mailang Tongzhou, another shareholder of the target company. Thus, both Tian Haixia and Mailang Tongzhou constitute 'related parties' of Mixue Group, making this transaction fall within the scope of related-party transactions.
Overseas Macro
Goldman Sachs CEO: AI infrastructure and government spending to drive U.S. economic acceleration before 2026. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, believes that despite challenges such as tariff impacts and a slowing job market, robust government spending and artificial intelligence infrastructure development will propel U.S. economic growth to accelerate before 2026. Corporate M&A activity is also expected to intensify. However, the U.S. stock market may experience a 'correction' within the next 12 to 24 months.
Goldman Sachs’ 'Global Sustainability Forum' held in New York. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the energy and artificial intelligence sectors are worth watching. Accelerating electricity demand is driving comprehensive energy procurement, with the market remaining optimistic about the long-term prospects of nuclear power. AI is disrupting labor and electricity markets, prompting investors and companies to focus more on 'what benefits AI can bring to sustainability' while seeking certainty in these gains.
Overseas hedge fund: AI speculation frenzy nearing end, heavy bets on uranium and copper to hedge bubble risks. Selwood Asset Management, an overseas hedge fund, warns that the AI speculation craze is approaching its peak, exhibiting characteristics typical of historical bubbles. Surging energy costs are expected to constrain AI expansion capabilities, while overly optimistic capital expenditure depreciation assumptions may have inflated tech giants' earnings. To hedge risks, the fund has avoided shorting tech stocks, instead turning bullish on energy-related commodities such as uranium and copper.
Hamas has submitted its response to Trump's '20-point plan' to the mediators. Hamas stated that it agrees, based on Trump's proposal, to release all living Israeli hostages and hand over the bodies of the deceased. Hamas also agreed to transfer the governance of the Gaza Strip to an independent Palestinian agency (a technocratic body).
Overseas Companies
After delivering its 'strongest quarter in twenty years,' what surprises can Google still offer Wall Street? Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the positive reception of Google's Gemini AI and has raised its price target from $210 to $270. Analysts believe that Google's 'faster pace of innovation' and AI-driven growth in core search and cloud businesses justify a 10% premium on its valuation.
The AI boom is brewing one of the year’s top five deals as Blackrock nears a $40 billion acquisition of a data center company. Media reports indicate that GIP, an investment fund under Blackrock, may announce an agreement within days to acquire Aligned Data Centers. MGX, an investment arm of Mubadala, the UAE sovereign wealth fund, will participate as an independent investor in this transaction.
AI chipmaker Cerebras withdraws IPO filing, citing outdated prospectus but still plans to go public. Artificial intelligence chipmaker Cerebras Systems announced the withdrawal of its IPO plan in a filing with the U.S. SEC, shortly after completing an $11 billion funding round that valued the company at $8.1 billion. A spokesperson stated that the withdrawal decision was unrelated to the U.S. government shutdown, and the company still intends to go public as soon as possible. The CEO noted that the old prospectus no longer aligns with current changes in the AI industry, emphasizing that the fundraising was aimed at ensuring the company would not miss development opportunities due to insufficient capital.
The first major deal by Berkshire Hathaway’s ‘heir apparent’: A 'Buffett-style' savvy move, cutting losses for Occidental Petroleum. Analysis suggests that the acquisition aims to help the heavily indebted Occidental Petroleum repay $6.5 billion in debt, reducing its total liabilities below $15 billion. For Berkshire Hathaway, this protects its investment as the largest shareholder of Occidental Petroleum (holding 29.6%) while acquiring one of the world’s largest independent petrochemical producers at a reasonable price, marking a classic 'Buffett-style' win-win transaction.
Berkshire Hathaway formally splits Chairman and CEO roles, paving the way for Greg Abel to succeed Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway announced the formal separation of the Chairman and CEO positions. The 95-year-old Buffett will continue as Chairman, while Greg Abel, currently Vice Chairman of non-insurance operations, will assume the CEO role on January 1, 2026. This move was first disclosed during Buffett’s May shareholder meeting and has now been officially approved by the board.
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