NIO Inc. will release his first-quarter 2020 report before the U. S. stock market on May 28.

We expectFirst quarter results may be lack of bright spotsThe reason is that the previous management guidance is low and the actual delivery is also declining.However, the situation of the second quarter report has become clear.Judging from recent research, NIO Inc. 's sales in the second quarter are very hot.So for this financial report, investors will focus on Q2 and full-year guidance, which may surprise the market and push up expectations for full-year delivery and performance improvement.。

I. the impact of the epidemic, 2020Q1Delivery is 5% lower than the previous month.成

Affected by the epidemic, NIO Inc. delivered a total of 3838 vehicles in the first quarter, close to 3989 of 2019Q1, which was 53% lower than the 8224 of 2019Q4.

Li Bin explained that the decline in delivery in the first quarter was more restricted by the disruption of the upstream supply chain. Although the order was weakened to a certain extent, it was not the main source, and he also expected the supply chain to return to normal in April.

At the 2019Q4 performance meeting, the main management guidelines for 2020Q1 are as follows:

1) the delivery volume ranges from 3400 to 3600, a decrease of 56.2% and 58.7% compared with 2019Q4.

2) the revenue ranges from 12.1 to 1.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.3% to 57.6% compared with the previous month.

3) 2020Q1 losses will fall by 35 per cent month-on-month.

Since the actual delivery of 3838 vehicles in the first quarter is not much different from the guidance, the main performance data should also be within the scope of the guidance and will not be too variable.

2019Q4 and NIO Inc. delivered an all-time high of 8224 cars with revenue of 2.85 billion yuan and an adjusted net loss of 2.81 billion yuan. If estimated according to the guidelines, the adjusted net loss of 2020Q1 is about 1.8 billion yuan.

In addition to the amount of losses, we can focus on the cost of the period. After more than half a year of layoffs, the market has been looking forward to operational efficiency and cost-side improvement.

Finally, I would like to emphasize that although the delivery in the first quarter was on the low side, NIO Inc. still substantially outperformed the industry, mainly due to the acquisition of orders by the online marketing model during the epidemic. Tesla, Inc. also spoke the same way. this is an important advantage of the new power of car building over traditional car companies.

II. 2020Q2And year-round guidelines may have surprises!

Combined with the delivery situation, we expect NIO Inc. 's first-quarter performance to be lack of bright spots, but from the recent terminal research, the company's sales in the second quarter are very hot, so for this financial report, the market will focus on Q2 and annual guidelines.

According to the latest data, NIO Inc. delivered 3155 cars in April, which has returned to an all-time high.

May 13thPresident Qin Lihong also announced that there were more than 100 new orders a day during May Day.Terminal demand has reached an all-time high.

According to our research, NIO Inc. 's delivery volume in May was about 4000 vehicles, and he was optimistic to see 10, 000 vehicles going up in the whole second quarter. In terms of product planning, the new ES8 was launched in April, and the EC6 will be delivered in September, followed by a 100-degree battery pack in the fourth quarter. Driven by the product launch, assuming that the average monthly sales of 4000 vehicles can be achieved from July to December, nearly 40, 000 vehicles will be delivered for the whole year, double that of the same period last year.

At the last performance meeting, Li Bin said that "he is confident that the gross profit margin will become positive in the second quarter and reach double digits at the end of the year." With reference to the ES8 situation at the end of 2018, if the above sales targets are achieved, superimposed this year's supply chain optimization and cost reduction (such as the expected 20% reduction in battery costs to 2020Q4), it is believed that the gross profit margin is likely to become positive. Among them, the monthly sales of 4000 vehicles is a threshold.

2019Q4, NIO Inc. automobile business gross profit margin slightly increased to-6%, the overall gross profit margin is-8.9%:

After finalizing the financing with the Hefei municipal government, NIO Inc. will receive 11 billion yuan of capital injection one after another (including 4.26 billion self-financing), coupled with local government support for land and factory construction, and its subsequent access to more low-cost bank funds through mortgage. based on a quarterly net loss of 2 billion, these financing methods can support the funding gap in the next two years.

On this basis, if the sales and gross profit margin information released by the management of this quarterly report is positive enough, especially in the competition with Tesla, Inc., sales can continue to rise in the second half of the year and have long-term growth potential, then the market is expected to rethink the pricing of NIO Inc..。

According to Bloomberg's expectations, NIO Inc. 's revenue in the first quarter was about 1.287 billion yuan, down 21% from a year earlier, with an adjusted net loss of 1.89 billion, an increase of 24.5% year-on-year and a 33% contraction from the previous quarter.

At present, three analysts have a "buy" rating, nine analysts recommend holding and two analysts recommend selling, and there are still some differences in the market.