Key Events This Week
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the annual benchmark revision data for non-farm employment.
The market widely expects that the upcoming annual benchmark revision for non-farm employment, scheduled to be released on September 9, may reveal that the actual state of the U.S. labor market is weaker than previously reported.
Nomura Securities forecasts that this revision will cover the period from April 2024 to March 2025, potentially resulting in a one-time downward adjustment of 600,000 to 900,000 jobs. Both Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered Bank have also warned that due to factors such as the distortion of the "birth-death model" and an overestimation of the labor force population, the monthly non-farm data may be overstated by 40,000 to 70,000.
This expectation is not unfounded; a recent series of data indicates that the U.S. labor market is cooling: the increase in ADP employment in August reached a new low since January 2025, the number of job openings in the JOLTS report fell to the lowest level since April 2021, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book also showed that most businesses in the districts are cautious about hiring.
Last year, the shocking downward revision of 818,000 jobs directly prompted the Federal Reserve to implement an unexpected rate cut of 50 basis points in September. Therefore, the market is highly attentive to whether this revision will open the door for another significant rate cut. Currently, the market's pricing probability for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has exceeded 90%.
The U.S. August CPI and PPI will be released with significant impact.
Before the onset of the Federal Reserve's quiet period ahead of the September monetary policy meeting, next week's employment and inflation data will constitute the final and most crucial piece in determining the direction of its policy.
On September 11, the United States will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August, which is the most critical inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Despite a rebound in the core CPI in July, the market generally believes that under the backdrop of a cooling labor market, inflationary pressures are insufficient to impede the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts.
The subsequent August PPI will also be closely monitored to explore whether tariffs have led to signs of businesses passing on potential inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, any signs of weakness could further reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
Nick Timiraos, known as the 'new Federal Reserve correspondent,' indicated that the lack of a sudden acceleration in prices is likely to eliminate one obstacle to interest rate cuts.
Earlier this year, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns that a significant increase in tariffs could drive up prices and trigger inflation. Although these concerns have not been completely alleviated, cost pressures have so far more broadly permeated the entire supply chain.
While concerns regarding tariffs remain, the Federal Reserve is currently facing a new challenge: a cooling of job growth in recent months has raised new worries for policymakers.
China's August CPI and PPI data will be released.
On Wednesday, September 10, China will release its August CPI and PPI data. CICC predicts that due to the high base from the same period last year and the relatively weak food prices this year, the year-on-year CPI growth rate for August may decline to -0.4%.
July data indicated that the year-on-year CPI has already fallen to 0, while the PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, reflecting persistently weak end demand. Although the core CPI in July rebounded due to a rise in service prices, high-frequency data show that hotel occupancy rates and prices during the summer season are below previous years. Regarding the PPI, as expectations for anti-involution reforms have cooled, prices of related commodities have retreated from their highs, and industrial product prices may continue to operate weakly.
Apple will hold its autumn product launch event.
At 1:00 AM on September 10, Beijing time, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The 2025 autumn launch event will be themed "Awe Dropping" and is expected to introduce the iPhone 17 series, Apple Watch, AirPods Pro 3, among others. Wall Street investment banks generally believe that the core focus of this event will be the new product line adjustments and pricing strategies.
According to reports from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, the iPhone 17 series will include four models, with the most significant change being a brand new ultra-slim "iPhone 17 Air" that will replace the underwhelming "Plus" model. It is said that this model will be only 5.5 millimeters thick, making it the thinnest iPhone ever.
Pricing strategy is another focal point. JPMorgan predicts that the starting price of models other than the Pro will remain unchanged. The iPhone 17 Pro is expected to eliminate the 128GB entry storage option, starting at 256GB, with the starting price increased from $999 to $1,099. This is a form of "stealth" price increase strategy aimed at raising the average selling price of high-end models. The final pricing of the new iPhone 17 Air is crucial, especially in the Chinese market, where its ability to remain below the RMB 6,000 subsidy threshold will directly impact its sales performance.
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng has a positive outlook on the iPhone 17 series, believing that the larger base model screen, upgraded camera, and more powerful A19 series processor will effectively stimulate users holding older devices to upgrade. It is expected to drive Apple's iPhone business revenue to achieve year-on-year growth of 5% and 7% in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively. Additionally, this launch event may also bring new models of the Apple Watch and AirPods Pro 3.
[Related Reading]Get ready for an exciting event! Apple's launch event is scheduled for September 10th, and these 28 Hong Kong and US stocks are expected to see a surge?
Major new stocks are successively landing in the Hong Kong and U.S. markets.
$DAHON TECH (02543.HK)$The results of the lottery were announced on Friday, with the company's margin financing oversubscribed by more than 6,400 times, and the subscription amount exceeding HKD 250 billion. The dark market will open next Monday at 16:15.
The company plans to globally issue 7.92 million H shares, with 792,000 shares available for public offering in Hong Kong and 7.128 million shares for international offering. The offering price will be HKD 49.5 per share, with a minimum purchase of 100 shares. It is expected that the H shares will begin trading on the Stock Exchange at 9:00 AM on September 9, 2025 (Tuesday).
After nearly three years of a cold winter, the primary market for U.S. stocks finally welcomed a long-awaited IPO boom in 2025.
Continue$Figma Inc (FIG.US)$ 、 $Circle (CRCL.US)$ 、 $Bullish (BLSH.US)$ Several prominent companies are set to go public, with multiple companies scheduled to debut on the U.S. stock market next week, including the 'Buy Now, Pay Later' platform. $Klarna Group plc (KLAR.US)$ and a cryptocurrency exchange. $Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US)$ Cryptocurrency lending platforms $Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR.US)$ 。
[Related Reading]Cryptocurrency firms are igniting a wave of IPOs! Gemini and Figure are racing towards their IPOs; who is likely to become the next Circle?
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on September 11, with widespread expectations that it will maintain its deposit rate at 2% when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting next Thursday. Since the spring, inflation has remained at or near its 2% target, allowing the European Central Bank to adopt a wait-and-see stance, particularly after the conclusion of the US-EU trade agreement, which has dissipated the direct threats of a trade war.
ECB President Lagarde may attempt to adopt a neutral tone during her press conference and could avoid commenting on future policy. However, any suggestion that the ECB might remain on hold for the remainder of this year could be perceived by the markets as somewhat hawkish, as it would confirm the current expectation that the last rate cut may not occur until mid-next year.
As the earnings season approaches its conclusion, Oracle and Adobe face critical battles.
Looking ahead to next week, performance in the AI sector remains a core focus! Cloud computing giants $Oracle (ORCL.US)$The highly anticipated announcement will reveal its cloud business growth and the increase in AI-related contract growth; the creative software leader $Adobe (ADBE.US)$'s AI creation tool Firefly's commercialization progress is also receiving considerable attention. Can these two tech giants capitalize on the AI dividend?
In addition, the card business transformation of meme stocks $GameStop (GME.US)$, the pet e-commerce platform $Chewy (CHWY.US)$The consumption resilience of semiconductor design software companies. $Synopsys (SNPS.US)$The order growth situation will also provide a diverse market narrative.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Upcoming Week
September 8, Monday
Keywords: China's trade balance; New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Trump; large banks' dark pool.
On Monday, in terms of economic data, China's trade balance for August will be released at an unspecified time, while the U.S. August New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations will be announced at 23:00.
Regarding financial events, U.S. President Trump will deliver a speech at the Museum of the Bible, with the time yet to be determined.
In terms of new listings, $DAHON TECH (02543.HK)$ The dark pool will open at 16:15.
September 9, Tuesday
Keywords: Non-farm annual benchmark revision data; large banks and industrial companies going public.
In terms of economic data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the nonfarm payroll annual benchmark revision data at 22:00.
In terms of financial events, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 AM to introduce the efforts to vigorously promote new industrialization and strengthen the foundation of the real economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period; the State Council Information Office will hold a routine policy briefing at 3:00 PM to discuss the "Opinions on Unleashing the Potential of Sports Consumption and Further Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Sports Industry."
In terms of earnings, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ 、 $Synopsys (SNPS.US)$ 、 $GameStop (GME.US)$ The earnings will be released after the close of the US stock market.
In terms of new listings, $DAHON TECH (02543.HK)$ Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.
September 10, Wednesday
Keywords: China's CPI, PPI; U.S. PPI; Oracle; Apple launch event; Klarna
In terms of economic data, China's CPI and PPI for August will be released at 9:30; the U.S. PPI for August will be released at 20:30; China's M2 money supply year-on-year, new RMB loans for August, and social financing scale increment for August will be released intermittently between September 9 and 15; U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending September 5 will be published at 4:30, and EIA crude oil inventory for the same week will be published at 22:30.
In terms of financial events, at 1:00 AM, Apple will hold its fall product launch event; U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will chair a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), with the time to be determined.
In terms of performance, 'Meme stocks' $Chewy (CHWY.US)$ The performance report will be released before the US stock market opens.
In the realm of new stocks, the "buy now, pay later" giant $Klarna Group plc (KLAR.US)$ has officially entered the US stock market.
September 11, Thursday
Keywords: ECB interest rate decision; US CPI; initial jobless claims; Figure
In terms of economic data, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15; the US August CPI and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 will be released at 20:30.
In terms of financial events, the IEA will release its monthly oil market report at 16:00; OPEC will also publish its monthly oil market report (generally around 18:00 to 21:00 Beijing time).
In terms of earnings, $Adobe (ADBE.US)$ The earnings will be released after the close of the US stock market.
In terms of new stocks, the cryptocurrency lending platform $Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR.US)$ will be listed on the US stock market.
September 12, Friday
Keywords: Adobe; University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; Gemini
In terms of economic data, the preliminary value of the one-year inflation expectation for the United States in September and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 22:00.
Regarding new stocks, the cryptocurrency exchange $Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US)$ will officially list on the U.S. stock market.
Stay ahead of major financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Select key macroeconomic data, and seize the investment opportunities early!
In the new week, I wish fellow investors successful investments!
Edited by Lambor
