Key Events This Week
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole may pave the way for a rate cut in September.
In the coming week, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly remain the focal point. The Fed will release the minutes from its July meeting early Thursday morning, but the real key will be the annual global central bank presidents' meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from August 21 to 23, particularly the speech by Chairman Powell on Friday.
Given that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole in 2022 triggered a sustained decline in U.S. stock markets, no investor dares to underestimate this typically brief speech lasting only about ten minutes.
The seminar will run from Thursday to Saturday, with this year's theme being "Transforming Labor Markets: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." The Federal Reserve has frequently used this meeting to signal significant policy shifts.
Currently, the market widely expects that Powell may signal a rate cut in September. However, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve may further widen, increasing uncertainty regarding the future monetary policy path and consequently heightening market volatility.
Some market observers indicated on Thursday that they have detected a shift in market sentiment. Thierry Wizman, a global Forex and interest rate strategist at Macquarie Group, stated in a report to clients that just on Wednesday, the market was still discussing a 'massive' rate cut, but a moderate reduction in September is 'more realistic.'
Analysts at Fxstreet believe that it is most likely that Powell will suggest that the pace of rate cuts will depend on the extent to which rising inflation is offset by a slowdown in the labor market. This may lead some to reduce their bets on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts for the year, thereby boosting the dollar.
Currently, the financial market has almost concluded that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, from the range of 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%. However, there are differing views on the subsequent rate-cutting path: the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 55.2% probability of another rate cut in October and a 41.8% probability of a third rate cut in December.
200-300% tariffs? The fate of semiconductor tariffs remains uncertain, while steel tariffs are set to take effect.
On August 15 local time, Bloomberg reported that U.S. President Trump stated he would announce the tariff rates on semiconductors within the next two weeks, with the maximum rate possibly reaching 300%! "Next week and the week after, we will set tariffs on steel and chips—chips and semiconductors," Trump told reporters on Air Force One as he was heading to Alaska for a summit with Russian President Putin.
Trump said that initially, the rates would be lower to allow companies to establish manufacturing plants in the U.S., after which the rates would rise significantly, potentially to 200% or even 300%. Trump expressed confidence that businesses would choose to manufacture in the U.S. rather than face high tariffs.
Previously, Trump publicly stated that the tariff rate on semiconductors in the United States could be as high as 25% to 100%. Furthermore, the new rules do not exclude imposing tariffs based on the wafer manufacturing location as the source of origin. This will have serious negative impacts on wafer manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel, Samsung, and Micron, as well as chip design companies that rely on foundry capacity, including NVIDIA, Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the evening of the 15th that the Bureau of Industry and Security has added 407 product codes to the "U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule," which will incur additional tariffs due to the steel and aluminum content. The announcement stated that the non-steel and aluminum parts of these products will be subject to the tariff rates imposed by President Trump on goods from specific countries. The expanded tariff list will officially take effect on August 18.
The meeting between Trump and Putin did not yield any agreements, and Ukrainian President Zelensky will visit the White House again.
Global markets will closely monitor the evolution of geopolitical dynamics. Following the meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska, President Trump stated on the 16th that he would meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the Oval Office on the afternoon of the 18th Eastern Time. As of the time of publication, there remain significant differences between Zelensky and Trump regarding key issues for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
If all goes well, arrangements will be made for a trilateral meeting between the leaders of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. In this regard, Zelensky stated that Ukraine supports the proposal for a trilateral meeting with the U.S. and Russia. Putin did not mention the trilateral meeting during a meeting held at the Kremlin on the 16th.
Trump raised the possibility of preparing for a future meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but then stated that the responsibility for ending the conflict now lies with Kyiv and its European allies. "Now, it really depends on President Zelensky to get it done," he told Fox News hosts after the summit. "I also want to say that European countries must get involved. But it depends on President Zelensky... If they are willing, I will participate in the next meeting."
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a key catalyst for the long-term rise in Gold prices, which have doubled since the end of 2022, as U.S. sanctions on the Russian financial system have enhanced Gold's appeal as a reserve asset. Any signs of a ceasefire could alleviate demand for Gold as a safe haven.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, stated, "Gold prices will largely depend on the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Putin, which could lead to significant fluctuations in Gold prices in the short term. Beyond that, we believe Gold will oscillate within a range with a steady upward trend. The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, thus further signals of monetary policy easing are needed to push Gold prices through."
The impact of tariffs on the economy may continue to unfold, and PMI data will provide further clues.
The U.S. economic calendar for the upcoming week is relatively light, including several reports on the Real Estate market. Lower borrowing costs may stimulate demand in the residential Real Estate market, which has been struggling due to low affordability. However, next week's PMI data from Europe and the U.S. will provide further clues on how Trump's tariffs are affecting the economy.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley warned the market in a recent report that, in the context of persistent inflation in the core U.S. services sector, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to signal a rate cut are overly optimistic, and Powell may suppress market expectations for rate cuts due to inflation concerns.
HSBC analysts stated in a report, "Now that the reciprocal tariffs have taken effect, the input costs segment of the PMI survey, especially in the United States, should begin to feel the initial impact of the tariff increases on prices."
From the U.S. inflation data, although the CPI year-on-year was slightly below expectations and did not rise due to the drag from food and energy prices, the core CPI year-on-year increased slightly above expectations, returning to above 3% for the first time in four months. The super core service prices have shown an acceleration, rising from 0.21% to 0.48% month-on-month, exceeding the average of 0.3% for the same period over the past two years.
U.S. stocks are set to witness a collective performance disclosure from retailers, with star stocks from Chinese companies such as Xiaomi and Baidu also preparing to report their results.
In terms of earnings reports, the U.S. stock market will see a collective performance disclosure from retailers next week. As an industry directly impacted by tariffs and facing U.S. consumers, their descriptions of the tariff impacts will be closely monitored.
Data indicates that U.S. consumption growth is showing a trend of slowing down, while U.S. stocks continue to set historical highs. $Walmart(WMT.US)$ 、 $Target (TGT.US)$ 、 Home Depot (HD.US) and $Lowe's Companies (LOW.US)$ Companies such as this are highly anticipated to report their earnings, which will provide insights into consumer spending and influence subsequent trends in the U.S. stock market.
Industry insiders indicate that current market inflation expectations are gradually retreating, providing ample room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve's policy rate and the movement of the U.S. dollar will become key drivers of U.S. stock market returns: a gradual rate reduction could compound the positive effects of cyclical data improvements; however, if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts rates to a terminal rate, it may lead to valuation bubbles.
Analysts at Bank of America recently stated that after U.S. stocks continue to set record highs, investors may choose to take profits if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference.
In addition, a number of popular Chinese concept stocks that a group of Chinese investors are quite familiar with will also disclose their earnings reports. XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) 、 $HKEX (00388.HK)$ 、 KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK) As the weighted stocks of the Hang Seng Index are set to announce their earnings, the Hang Seng Index Company will also announce the results of the review for the Hang Seng Index series for the second quarter of 2025 on August 22 (Friday), featuring new consumer star stocks. POP MART (09992.HK) Among the Chinese concept stocks listed in the U.S., $Baidu(BIDU.US)$ 、 $Bilibili(BILI.US)$ The performance will be synchronously released.
Key Earnings Calendar for the New Week
August 18, Monday
Keywords: SINO BIOPHARM, LEAPMOTOR performance, US NAHB Housing Market Index
On Monday, investors should pay attention to the Eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance and the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index.
In terms of financial events, investors may pay attention to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the United States.
Regarding performance, Hong Kong stocks SINO BIOPHARM (01177.HK) 、 $LEAPMOTOR(09863.HK)$ 、 $MEITU (01357.HK)$ 、 TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK) will announce its earnings; in the U.S. stock market, Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US) and $BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US)$ will release earnings reports during Post-Market Trading.
August 19, Tuesday
Keywords: Xiaomi Group, POP MART performance
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the United States will release the total number of building permits and the annualized number of new housing starts.
Regarding performance, Hong Kong stocks XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) 、 POP MART (09992.HK) 、 $SUNNY OPTICAL(02382.HK)$ and WUXI BIO (02269.HK) Performance will be announced; Home Depot (HD.US) as well as Chinese concept stocks $小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)$ Earnings will be announced before the opening of the U.S. stock market. ZTO Express (ZTO.US) will release earnings reports during Post-Market Trading.
In terms of new stocks, the semiconductor silicon carbide company $TianYue Advanced (02631.HK)$ will announce the results of the lottery for share allocation.
August 20, Wednesday
Keywords: China's one-year LPR, Eurozone CPI, Hong Kong Exchange, Baidu performance, TianYue Advanced listing
On Wednesday, regarding performance, Hong Kong stocks $HKEX (00388.HK)$ 、 Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) 、 $Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (01276.HK)$ and ZA ONLINE (06060.HK) Performance will be released; regarding Chinese concept stocks, $Baidu(BIDU.US)$ 、 $Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$ 、 $Kingsoft Cloud(KC.US)$ and $iQIYI(IQ.US)$ The earnings report will be announced before the opening of the U.S. stock market on that day.
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming; at 2:00 AM the next day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the monetary policy meeting, followed by remarks from 2027 FOMC voting member Bostic at 3:00 AM.
In terms of new stocks, the semiconductor Silicon Carbide company $TianYue Advanced (02631.HK)$ has listed on the Hong Kong stock market.
Thursday, August 21
Keywords: Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, U.S. Unemployment Claims, U.S. PMI, Walmart, AIA, Bilibili, Kuaishou performance
On Thursday, the U.S. will release a series of economic data, including the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, weekly initial unemployment claims, and S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI.
In terms of financial events, Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US) The Pixel launch event coincides with the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Symposium; at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting, followed by a speech from 2027 FOMC voting member Bostic at 3:00 AM.
Regarding performance, Hong Kong stocks $AIA (01299.HK)$ 、 KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK) 、 SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK) and $FOURTH PARADIGM(06682.HK)$ will announce its earnings; in the U.S. stock market, $Bilibili(BILI.US)$ 、 $MINISO(MNSO.US)$ 、 $Walmart(WMT.US)$ will release performance figures before the market opens, Intuit (INTU.US), The performance will be announced after the market closes.
August 22, Friday
Keywords: Powell's speech, Hang Seng Index Company Q2 review results
On Friday, in terms of economic data, investors may pay attention to Japan's CPI data.
In terms of financial events, at 10 PM Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium; in addition, the Hang Seng Index Company will announce the Q2 review results.
Regarding performance, Hong Kong stocks $Zhou Liu Fu (06168.HK)$ 、 Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) and $China Coal Energy(01898.HK)$ will announce its earnings; in the U.S. stock market, $Gold Fields(GFI.US)$ 、 $RLX Technology (RLX.US)$ The performance will be announced.
Stay ahead of the financial news and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Financial Calendar/Select key macroeconomic data, and seize the investment opportunities early!
Wishing all mooers a successful week of investing!
Editor/Rocky
