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富途点评 | 超预期!但微软的“岁月静好”前面是风浪不息

Futu Review | Exceeded expectations! But there are endless ups and downs ahead of Microsoft's “Quiet Years”

富途资讯 ·  Apr 30, 2020 21:54  · Insights

Author: Travis

The years are as good as Microsoft Corp, silent ranked first in total market capitalization, it was the first in market capitalization ten years ago, and it still is.

This quarter's FY20Q3, Microsoft Corp is worthy of the title of No. 1 in the United States, reporting excellent results: revenue of $35 billion, up 15% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of $33.6 billion; net profit of $10.8 billion, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of $9.8 billion; earnings per share of $1.40, the market is expected to be $1.29.

I. the epidemic has benefited unexpectedly, and the three major businesses have maintained growth.

Due to the spread of the epidemic and the impact of home isolation policy, telecommuting, cloud access to enterprises, and online learning have become the main line of people's daily life, and a large number of cloud services and streaming media companies have benefited. Microsoft Corp, as the world's largest provider of office software and operating system services, not only provided corresponding software and cloud services for various enterprises during the epidemic, but also provided strong support for the integration and utilization of medical and educational resources everywhere.

1. Home isolation brings about an increase in the demand for office software

Revenue from the productivity and business process division, represented by Office, rose nearly 15% year-on-year to $11.74 billion, while operating profit rose 20% year-on-year to $4.79 billion.

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Since the outbreak of the epidemic, more and more enterprises have started to work from home, coupled with the trend of win10 replacement, the growth of Office has accelerated significantly. The number of Office365 subscriptions in the quarter has been close to 40 million, an increase of more than 15% year-on-year.

In addition to office systems such as Office, Microsoft Corp's various applications also grew rapidly during this period: the revenue of LinkedIn, a workplace application, grew by more than 20% this quarter compared with the same period last year, and more than 690 million users are here to learn new skills and look for new opportunities. On March 18, it was reported that Teams, a video conferencing service, added more than 12 million daily active users in a week, bringing the total number of daily active users to 44 million. Skype is also popular, with 40 million daily active users, an increase of 70% over the previous week. During the epidemic, Microsoft Corp benefited from home isolation, which led to an increase in the demand for office software.

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2. Cloud in the enterprise makes the cloud computing business grow rapidly.

The growth of cloud services in this quarter is even more remarkable. Azure revenue has increased by 59% compared with the same period last year, and the entire smart cloud service revenue has reached US $12.28 billion, making it the highest business segment in the current period with operating profits of US $4.56 billion and operating profit margins of around 40% for a long time.

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In recent weeks, the company's cloud services have continued to expand: private equity giant Blackrock moved its asset management operating platform Aladdin to Microsoft Azure;NBA to provide personalized experience services for fans through Azure and its AI functions, while using cloud technology, together with Microsoft Teams and Surface, Microsoft Corp successfully created the first-ever virtual NFL talent show for NFL; in the consumer sector, Coca-Cola Company operated his standardized business on Microsoft Corp Cloud. It has become a trend for enterprises to go to the cloud. Microsoft Corp, who has collaborative advantages with his own office software system, will have greater advantages in hybrid cloud and edge computing in the future.

3. Personal computing business continues to grow.

Because of the impact of the outbreak on the supply chain, the personal computing business grew relatively slowly this quarter, with revenue growth of 3 per cent year-on-year to $11 billion, but operating margins improved significantly as a result of the adjustment to the high net worth product business. operating profit rose 15 per cent year-on-year to $3.63 billion. The bright spot is that revenue from window-related and cloud services products is up 17% year-on-year. The number of active users of window-related Xbox Live has grown to nearly 90 million.

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By combing through the company's three major businesses, Microsoft Corp has unexpectedly benefited from the epidemic, but since the global impact of the epidemic has not yet been fully exposed, it has also added uncertainty to the company's growth in the next quarter.

Second, there are hidden worries in the next quarter, but they are organic in danger.

The impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain is immediate, and it has a significant impact on people's long-term consumption expectations. therefore, Microsoft Corp management has revealed his hidden worries in his guidance for the next quarter. it is believed that the next growth may not continue the good situation of this quarter.

1. The epidemic situation suppresses the overall market demand obviously.

According to the company's guidelines: next quarter, productivity and business process revenue will be $116.5-$11.95 billion; smart cloud computing will remain the largest revenue division, with $129-$13.15 billion; and personal computing revenue will be $1.13-$11.7 billion. In terms of the company's order growth rate, it grew by only 7% this quarter, reflecting the weakness of overall demand in the market.

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And in terms of deferred revenue, in addition to personal computing, productivity and business processes, as well as smart cloud computing, as well as overall business growth are declining this quarter. As a result, the more far-reaching impact of the epidemic on the economy may not be seen until later.

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2. The epidemic makes Microsoft Corp cut into various industries more quickly.

However, during the epidemic, Microsoft Corp accelerated cooperation with medical services to establish and share timely information through cloud services and applications, so that the government and the public can get the latest epidemic data. The combination of artificial intelligence and data provides robots for health care providers, while the company's huge computing power helps researchers build models quickly and speed up the response from testing to vaccine development.

At the same time, the company actively carries out cross-industry cooperation, works with universities, the army and the government, provides a secure information access environment, builds a stable distance education system, and provides students with learning tools and materials free of charge. In the face of the epidemic, take positive measures to reflect the value of Microsoft Corp's social responsibility, in the subsequent rapid development of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, the need for more data samples of the long-term trend, Microsoft Corp is expected to continue to benefit.

3. Have sufficient ammunition reserves

In addition, Microsoft Corp has sufficient cash reserves this fiscal year, and his current cash equivalents are close to $140 billion. At a time when the economic outlook is uncertain, enough ammunition can be prepared for the acquisition of high-quality targets. In late March, the company acquired 5G core network provider Affirmed Networks. With the future application of 5G, the company will provide enterprises with faster, more cost-effective and efficient service solutions in public / hybrid cloud and edge computing. It can be predicted that although the epidemic has delayed the company's original spending plans on cloud computing, Microsoft Corp, who has a lot of cash, will continue to maintain growth in acquisitions and expenses this fiscal year to ensure the company's competitiveness in the future.

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Therefore, although the epidemic still has a long-term uncertain impact on economic development, it is organic in danger. if the company can make full use of the resources on hand, after this storm, its strength will undoubtedly become stronger.

Conclusion

If you want the years to be quiet, you must be able to withstand the strong winds and waves.

Ten years ago, Microsoft Corp was the first in market capitalization. After the spring tide of mobile communications and the new wave of cloud computing, Microsoft Corp is still the first in market capitalization after the ebb and flow of the tide. Motionless reflects the whole company's ability to control the development of science and technology.

And then with the development of 5G, AI, big data, cloud computing and other emerging technologies, who can stand at the top of the wave?

Edit / Sylvie

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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