Key Events This Week
He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will travel to Sweden from July 27 to 30 for economic and trade talks with the U.S. side.
According to the Ministry of Commerce, He Lifeng will travel to Sweden from July 27 to 30 to hold economic and trade talks with the U.S. side. The Global Times reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with Fox News on the 22nd that the third round of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations will be held on Monday and Tuesday next week in Stockholm, Sweden. The two sides had previously held two rounds of talks in Geneva and London. The report mentioned that August 12 is the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs between China and the U.S., and the purpose of the latest round of negotiations is to postpone this deadline.
The U.S. consumer news and business channel (CNBC) reported that Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson confirmed later on the 22nd that Sweden will host the latest round of talks between Washington and Beijing. He stated on the social platform X, “These negotiations mainly involve Sino-U.S. relations and are also of great significance to global trade and the economy.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated at the regular press conference on the 22nd that China’s position on the tariff issue has been consistent and clear. It is hoped that the U.S. side will work with the Chinese side to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, leverage the role of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation through dialogue and communication, thus promoting the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. relations.
Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' and 50% import tariff on copper will take effect on August 1st.
According to CCTV News, on July 15th, U.S. President Trump stated that the imposition of tariffs will begin on August 1st, and announced that starting from August 1st, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all copper imported into the United States.
According to Xinhuanet Co., Ltd., recent developments show that August 1st is not only the designated date for the new reciprocal tariffs to take effect but also the deadline for the announcement of tariffs on many industries. U.S. President Trump indicated that the U.S. government is planning to impose new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and several other specific industries. He specifically mentioned that there might be a new tariff of up to 200% on foreign-made pharmaceuticals.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy on July 31.
At the upcoming FOMC meeting, policymakers are expected to maintain a stable policy stance while remaining sensitive to the global trade environment and slowing investment trends.
Analysts at Bank of America note that the clash between Trump and Powell over interest rate cuts will be a focal point of the meeting, but the market may still see some bullish signals. Although it is expected that Powell will reaffirm the Fed's independence and keep rates unchanged, he might signal a 'softening'—if inflation aligns with expectations, it could open the door for a rate cut. Analysts caution that an escalation in the trade war and resulting inflation fears could disrupt the pace of rate cuts, but as long as the economy continues to cool, the Fed is likely to initiate an easing cycle.
Chris Low and his colleagues at FHN Financial state, 'The Fed should cut rates next week, but we do not think it will.' They believe that Chair Powell may use the press conference to prepare the market for a rate cut in September. 'While Chair Powell may maintain policy flexibility in September, we believe he will emphasize that recent U.S. inflation and employment data provide a basis for keeping rates unchanged,' say James Egelhof and Guneet Dhingra from BNP Paribas. 'Consistent with our expectations since December 2024, we anticipate that the current policy stance will continue through the end of the year.'
As per tradition, a meeting of the Politburo will be held at the end of July.
As per tradition, a meeting of the Politburo will be held at the end of July, which will largely set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Based on China's economic performance in the second quarter and recent high-level meetings, State Council meetings, and various departmental briefings, Xiong Yuan of Guosheng Securities has five forward-looking points for the mid-year Politburo meeting:
Forward-Looking Point 1: On the economic situation, the meeting is expected to acknowledge that the economy has withstood pressure and remained generally stable, showing a positive trend. However, it will also likely emphasize that both internal and external pressures remain significant, including a complex and volatile external environment, insufficient domestic demand, and an unstable foundation for economic operations.
Forward-Looking Point 2: In terms of policy direction, the overall expansionary policy tone and the focus on boosting domestic demand will remain unchanged. It is expected that new incremental policies will be introduced, but there is unlikely to be a strong stimulus; instead, the approach will be more about 'supporting without lifting.'
Looking ahead 3: In terms of policy implementation, there will likely be a continuation of the emphasis on accelerating the execution of existing policies and furthering the development of new policies. It will also stress the timely introduction, prompt implementation, and rigorous follow-through of these policies.
Looking ahead 4: Key areas of focus will include central government leverage, anti-competition measures, regional cooperation, expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, stabilizing the stock market, expanding openness, strengthening industries, and advancing reforms. Among these, 'anti-competition' may focus on sectors such as new energy vehicles, and further support for the real estate market is expected, along with potential additional cuts to reserve requirements and interest rates.
Looking ahead 5: Planning for the 14th Five-Year Plan, the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to convene in the second half of the year to review the draft of the 14th Five-Year Plan. As per convention, the date of the 4th Plenary Session will be announced, and it is likely to emphasize continued research on key issues such as the socioeconomic development goals, new quality productivity, expanding domestic demand, and common prosperity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference on July 31.
At next week's meeting, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its 0.5% interest rate, with the focus shifting to its quarterly outlook report and post-meeting communications regarding the recent US-Japan trade agreement.
This week's news of the US-Japan trade agreement has raised expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the trade agreement has eliminated uncertainties and increased the likelihood of inflation sustaining at 2%, which is a prerequisite for further rate hikes.
Jane Foley, an FX strategist at Rabobank, noted in a report that if the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by year-end increases, the yen would benefit. She believes that if political uncertainties ease in the coming weeks, the passage of the US-Japan trade agreement and the results of last Sunday's Senate election could increase the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
US stocks are set for a major earnings and macro data week, with reports from tech giants Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, as well as the July ADP Employment Report and the July Non-Farm Payrolls, scheduled to be released.
S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)Over 40% of the constituent companies will release their earnings reports next week. $Meta Platforms(META.US)$、$Apple(AAPL.US)$、$Amazon(AMZN.US)$、$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$、Qualcomm (QCOM.US)Earnings reports from closely watched technology stocks will also be released.
Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management stated, 'We have observed a divergence in corporate earnings, but overall, most companies have exceeded expectations, driving the stock market higher.' He believes that 'as long as trade policies and tariff pressures remain at low levels, there is still room for the market to rise further.'
The July ADP employment report will be released on Wednesday (July 30). Last month's data showed that U.S. ADP employment in June plummeted to -33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023. The expected figure was 98,000, and the May data, after downward revision, only increased by 29,000. Employment in the service sector saw its largest decline since the pandemic began.
The June core PCE price index will be released on Thursday (July 31). May data indicated that the U.S. core PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations, rising 0.2% month-over-month. Consumer spending fell by 0.3%, the largest drop since the beginning of the year; personal income saw its largest decline since 2021, primarily due to a reduction in government transfer payments. This suggests that the uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's economic policies is increasingly weighing on the economic growth outlook.
On Friday, the July non-farm payrolls will be released. According to Reuters, the July non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 102,000. The Tao Chuan team at Minsheng Macro believes that the June non-farm payroll data presented a perfect combination: new jobs added were 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, though wage growth slowed. The market has already prepared itself, turning the data impact into a bullish factor. For the Federal Reserve, the data is relatively reassuring, confirming a wait-and-see stance, and the market has largely abandoned bets on a July rate cut. However, there are underlying concerns: private sector employment unexpectedly declined, and the manufacturing sector is under pressure.
Cloud-based design software company Figma plans to list on the NYSE on July 31, with an IPO price range of $25-28.
Cloud-based design software company$Figma(FIG.US)$The cloud-based design software company plans to list on the NYSE next Thursday. The previously announced IPO price range is $25 to $28 per share. At the midpoint of $26.50 per share, the net proceeds are expected to be approximately $305.9 million. According to sources, Figma's target valuation for this IPO is $13.65 billion, and the fully diluted valuation could reach up to $16.4 billion. The stock code will be 'FIG'. This listing is expected to inject new momentum into the recovering tech IPO market.
In a regulatory filing on July 21, the company stated that it plans to sell nearly 37 million shares in conjunction with certain investors, potentially raising up to $1.03 billion. In this IPO, selling shareholders will offer approximately 24.46 million shares (about 66%). Figma noted that the company will not receive any proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock by the selling shareholders. Underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 5.54 million shares from certain selling shareholders.
Figma plans to use the net proceeds from this offering, along with cash on hand, to repay $330.5 million of outstanding debt under its revolving credit facility. This borrowing is intended to cover withholding taxes and remittance obligations related to the net settlement of restricted stock units (RSUs). The company stated that any remaining net proceeds will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Figma added that, following the completion of this offering, Dylan Field, the chairman, CEO, and president of the company, will hold or control approximately 73.6% of the voting power of the issued and outstanding capital stock.
Key Earnings Calendar for the New Week
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July 28, Monday
Key Points: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, WUXI APPTEC, Nucor Earnings.
On Monday, economic data will include the release of the July Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 10:30 PM EST.
In terms of earnings, $WUXI APPTEC(02359.HK)$WUXI APPTEC will release its earnings after the Hong Kong market closes; $FEMSA(FMX.US)$Earnings Reports will be announced during Pre-Market Trading, $Welltower Inc(WELL.US)$、 $Nucor(NUE.US)$will release its Earnings Reports after the Post-Market Trading.
July 29, Tuesday
Keywords: JOLTS Job Openings, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, New Oriental, Boeing, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, Visa, MARA Holdings Earnings.
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, at 21:00, the U.S. FHFA House Price Index for May and the S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index (year-over-year) for May will be released; at 22:00, the U.S. will announce the June JOLTs Job Openings and the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
In terms of earnings, $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$、 $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$will release its Earnings Reports during Pre-Market Trading; $Visa(V.US)$、 $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$Earnings Reports will be announced after Post-Market Trading; $Boeing (BA.US)$、NEW ORIENTAL-S (09901.HK)will announce its Earnings Reports today.
July 30, Wednesday
Keywords: ADP Employment Report, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory, Ambiq Micro IPO, HSBC Holdings, Meta Platforms, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Arm Holdings Earnings Reports.
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the July ADP Employment Report for the U.S. will be released at 8:15 PM; at 10:30 PM, the EIA Crude Oil Inventory report for the week ending July 25 will be published.
In terms of earnings, $Meta Platforms(META.US)$、 $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$、 Qualcomm (QCOM.US)、 $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$、 $Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$Earnings reports will be released after the U.S. market closes;HSBC Holdings (00005.HK)earnings reports will be released on the same day.
In terms of new listings, $Ambiq Micro(AMBQ.US)$, a company specializing in ultra-low power semiconductor technology and AI chips,$Ambiq Micro(AMBQ.US)$Will be listed in the U.S.
Thursday, July 31
Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper bound), core PCE price index year-over-year, initial jobless claims, Powell's monetary policy press conference, Figma listing, Amazon, Apple earnings.
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, at 02:00, the U.S. will release the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper bound) data; at 09:30, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for July; the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 and the U.S. core PCE price index year-over-year for June will be released at 20:30; followed by the U.S. Chicago PMI for July at 21:45.
In financial events, at 02:00, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; at 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference.
In terms of earnings,$Apple(AAPL.US)$、$Amazon(AMZN.US)$、$Coinbase(COIN.US)$、$MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$将于美股盘后发布业绩；$MasterCard(MA.US)$将于美股盘前发布业绩。
In the IPO segment, cloud design software company$Figma(FIG.US)$and medical technology company$Shoulder Innovations(SI.US)$will be listed in the U.S. today.
Friday, August 1st
Key events: U.S. July unemployment rate, U.S. July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, July ISM Manufacturing PMI, final reading of the July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, DeepGreenX listing, Chevron and Exxon Mobil earnings.
On Friday, economic data will include the U.S. July unemployment rate and the U.S. July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls at 20:30; followed by the release of the July ISM Manufacturing PMI and the final reading of the July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 22:00.
In terms of earnings,$Chevron(CVX.US)$Earnings Reports will be released today;Exxon Mobil (XOM.US),、 $Linde (LIN.US)$、 Moderna (MRNA.US)Earnings reports will be released during Pre-Market Trading.
In the IPO segment, an artificial intelligence-based green energy and technology company,$DeepGreenX (Direct Listing – NASDAQ)(DXG.US)$Will be listed.
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Wishing all mooers a successful week of investing!
Editor/Melody
