Ping An of China (601318) 2020 Quarterly Report Review: Life Insurance Is Still in a Period of Transformation and Adjustment, Investment Fluctuations Under I9 Will Have Significant Impact on Profits

东海证券 · Apr 25, 2020 12:04

事项：

中国平安公布2020 年1 季报。报告期内实现归母净利润261 亿元，同比-42.7%；实现归母营运利润359 亿元，同比+5.3%；实现新业务价值165 亿元，同比-24%；报告期末归母净资产6902 亿元，较年初+2.5%；年化总投资收益率/净投资收益率为3.4%/3.6%，同比下降1.7pct/0.3pct。

评论：

寿险及健康险业务仍处调整期，价值增长承压。1 季度平安实现新业务价值165亿元，同比-24%，降幅较大。一方面寿险业务尚未走出2018 年以来的调整期，加之受疫情影响，新业务增长承受较大压力，1 季度新单保费（原保费口径）508 亿元，同比-15.2%。另一方面，1 季度新业务价值率同比下降了3.4 个百分点至33.4%，主要原因为疫情影响下保费结构有所变化，线上较容易获客和销售的短期险占比提升。另外，截至1 季度末，平安寿险代理人规模为113.万人，较年初-3%，延续了前期的下降趋势，但降幅有收窄趋势。在宏观经济环境走弱，失业率上升的情况下，疫情对增员有一定的促进作用，加之平安将代理人提到重要高度，预计未来几个季度代理人将恢复一定程度增长。

权益市场下行，I9 下投资波动对利润影响大。1 季度险资投资总投资收益率下降1.7 个百分点至3.4%，净投资收益率亦下降0.3 个百分点至3.6%。受疫情及海外市场影响，1 季度沪深股市下挫超10%，香港股市下挫超16%，金融资产公允价值出现较大变动。在I9 下，平安相较于同业更多的金融资产以公允价值计量且其变动影响损益，投资收益变动较大。1 季度险资投资总投资收益259 亿元，同比-60%，主要受公允价值变动贡献损失影响（集团公允价值变动由去年同期341 亿收益转为168 亿损失）。净投资收益319 亿元，同比-0.5%，主要受经济环境和权益市场恶化分红派息减少影响，其中平安以FVOCI 持有的汇丰控股宣布不派息，1 季度影响已反应于报表。（平安2019 年底持股汇丰控股7.01%）

营运利润增长放缓，其中寿险业务稳定、银行业务高增。受宏观经济下行和投资环境恶化影响，集团整体营运利润同比+5.6%，明显放缓。其中寿险业务营运利润增长稳定，同比+23.7%，得益于剩余边际的稳定释放，银行业务同比+14.7%，得益于利息收入大幅增长。其他业务受1 季度经济压力和投资环境恶化影响，营运利润均出现不同程度负增长。产险业务综合成本率微降0.5个百分点（预计疫情期间各险种赔付率下行较大），但受投资影响整体利润下滑23.3%。资产管理业务亦受市场震荡及上年同期项目高收益基数影响，利润下滑45.6%。

盈利预测、估值及投资评级。我们维持预计2020-2022 年中国平安BPS 为38.4/42.3/45.6 元/股，EPS 为8.9/9.8/11.7 元/股。预计未来3 年中国平安的每股内含价值为75.5、87.6 和102.5 元，考虑今年盈利增长压力和利率下行环境，给予2020 年目标价104 元，对应PEV 1.38 倍，维持“强推”评级。

风险提示：新业务价值增长不及预期、权益市场动荡、经济下行压力加大。

Items:

Ping An InsuranceAnnounce the quarterly report for the first quarter of 2020. During the reporting period, the net profit was 26.1 billion yuan,-42.7% compared with the same period last year; the operating profit was 35.9 billion yuan, + 5.3% from the same period last year; the value of new business was 16.5 billion yuan, 24% from the same period last year; the net assets at the end of the reporting period was 690.2 billion yuan, + 2.5% from the beginning of the year; and the annualized total investment return / net investment return was 3.4%, 3.6%, down 1.7pct/0.3pct.

Comments:

Life insurance and health insurance business are still in a period of adjustment, with value growth under pressure. In the first quarter, Ping an realized a new business value of 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of-24%. On the one hand, life insurance business has not yet come out of the adjustment period since 2018, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the growth of new business is under greater pressure. In the first quarter, the new single premium (original premium caliber) was 50.8 billion yuan,-15.2% of the same period last year. On the other hand, the value rate of new business fell 3.4 percentage points to 33.4% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, mainly due to changes in the premium structure under the influence of the epidemic and an increase in the proportion of short-term insurance that is easier to get customers and sell online. In addition, by the end of the first quarter, the size of Ping an life insurance agents was 113. Ten thousand people,-3% from the beginning of the year, continued the previous downward trend, but the rate of decline has a narrowing trend. Under the circumstances of a weaker macroeconomic environment and a rising unemployment rate, the epidemic has played a certain role in increasing personnel, and Ping an has raised agents to an important height, and agents are expected to return to a certain extent of growth in the next few quarters.

Equity market downwardI9. The fluctuation of investment has a great impact on profits. In the first quarter, the total rate of return on risky investment fell 1.7 percentage points to 3.4%, and the net return on investment also fell 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%. Affected by the epidemic and overseas markets, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell by more than 10% in the first quarter, the Hong Kong stock market fell by more than 16%, and the fair value of financial assets changed greatly. Under I9, more financial assets of Ping an are measured at fair value than those of the same industry, and their changes affect profit and loss, and investment income changes greatly. The total investment income of risky investment in the first quarter was 25.9 billion yuan,-60% compared with the same period last year, mainly affected by the contribution loss of fair value changes (the group's fair value changes changed from 34.1 billion gains in the same period last year to 16.8 billion losses in the same period last year). The net investment income was 31.9 billion yuan,-0.5% compared with the same period last year, mainly affected by the deterioration of the economic environment and the equity market. HSBC Holdings PLC, which is held by Ping an and FVOCI, announced that it would not pay dividends. The impact of the first quarter has been reflected in the statement. (ping an held 7.01% of HSBC Holdings PLC at the end of 2019)

The growth of operating profit slowed down, including stable life insurance business and high growth in banking business. Affected by the macroeconomic downturn and the deterioration of the investment environment, the group's overall operating profit was + 5.6% compared with the same period last year, which slowed down significantly. Among them, the operating profit of the life insurance business grew steadily, + 23.7% compared with the same period last year. Thanks to the stable release of the remaining margin, the banking business was + 14.7% year-on-year, thanks to a substantial increase in interest income. Other businesses were affected by the economic pressure and the deterioration of the investment environment in the first quarter, resulting in negative operating profit growth to varying degrees. The comprehensive cost rate of property insurance business decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage point (the compensation rate of each type of insurance is expected to decline significantly during the epidemic), but the overall profit affected by investment fell by 23.3%. The asset management business was also affected by market volatility and the high yield base of projects in the same period last year, with profits falling by 45.6%.

Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating. We maintain our estimate that from 2020 to 2022, the BPS of Ping An Insurance will be 42.3 yuan per share, and the EPS will be 8.9 yuan per share and 9.8 yuan per share. Ping An Insurance is expected to have an embedded value of 75.5,87.6 and 102.5 yuan per share in the next three years. Taking into account the pressure of earnings growth and the downward environment of interest rates this year, it will be given a target price of 104 yuan in 2020, corresponding to 1.38 times of PEV, maintaining a "strong push" rating.

Risk tips: the growth of new business value is less than expected, the equity market is volatile, and the economic downward pressure is increasing.

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中国平安(601318)2020年一季报点评：寿险仍处转型调整期 I9下投资波动对利润影响明显

Ping An of China (601318) 2020 Quarterly Report Review: Life Insurance Is Still in a Period of Transformation and Adjustment, Investment Fluctuations Under I9 Will Have Significant Impact on Profits

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