Overview of this week's key schedule.
The United States has successively announced the CPI and PPI data for June.
According to a Bloomberg survey of Analysts, it is expected that the core CPI in the U.S. (excluding food and energy) will rise 0.3% month-on-month in June, marking the highest increase in five months, while this indicator only slightly rose 0.1% in May. More notably, the year-on-year increase in core inflation is also expected to rebound for the first time since January, reaching 2.9%.
The U.S. June CPI will be released next Tuesday Eastern Time, and the PPI will be released next Wednesday, coinciding with the market's attempt to clarify whether Trump's reciprocal tariffs have begun to materially affect domestic prices.
Although the June data may only reflect 'limited tariff transmission,' an increasing number of Analysts expect that as corporate pricing gradually adjusts in the second half of the year, inflationary pressures will show cumulative effects.
The United States has announced the retail sales data for June.
The U.S. will release the June retail sales data on Thursday. Although this data mainly reflects Commodity expenditure, it will provide more clues for assessing economic growth in the second quarter.
The market generally expects that following two consecutive months of decline, retail sales in June will see a slight rebound. Analysts point out that the weakening of consumer power is occurring simultaneously with the cooling of the labor market. If this data continues to perform blandly, it will provide further evidence for the judgment that "the U.S. economy is experiencing a soft landing."
Barclays recently estimated in its research report that goods facing 30% higher tariffs will arrive at American ports by the end of June or early July, and will start to enter stores in late July for the back-to-school season, thus the broader inflationary effects related to tariffs will begin to manifest from June to July.
U.S. bank stocks lead the way! The Q2 earnings season officially kicks off.
Next week, the Q2 earnings season will make a significant impact, with several important individual stocks such as JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and Taiwan Semiconductor set to report results.
For individual stocks, the market spotlight may fall on Netflix, which is set to release its earnings report after the market close on Thursday. With the stock price of this streaming giant reaching an all-time high about ten days ago, its performance may need to be extraordinary to sustain the current upward trend of its stock price.
JPMorgan anticipates that earnings expectations have been significantly lowered, which means that corporate earnings reports may create more surprises. The Financial Sector is expected to release bullish signals first, while tech giants (especially NVIDIA's earnings report on August 28) could become key catalysts for further market gains.
A significant week in the world of cryptos is coming! Several bills will be reviewed.
On July 3 local time, the U.S. House of Representatives announced that the week of July 14 would be designated as 'Cryptocurrency Week', during which the Clarity Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the GENIUS Act will be reviewed.
The CLARITY Act clearly delineates the roles of the SEC in the United States and commodities.Futures trading.The regulation authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over cryptocurrencies provides a clear compliance pathway for Exchanges, project parties, and investors, and is seen as a key to unleashing the innovative vitality of the US crypto industry.
The "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a national regulatory framework for the issuance of stablecoins. The act requires that all stablecoin issuances must be fully backed by U.S. dollars or equivalent high-liquidity assets, and it mandates annual audits for issuing entities with a market cap exceeding 50 billion USD, while setting clear regulations for foreign issuers.
The "Anti-CBDC Act" aims to prohibit the Federal Reserve from directly issuing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to the public. The core reason is to safeguard citizens' financial privacy rights and prevent the government from using CBDC for comprehensive financial surveillance.
China publishes several heavyweight economic data including GDP.
On Monday, the 14th, China will release the trade balance for June. At 10 a.m. that day, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference regarding the import and export situation for the first half of 2025. At 3 p.m., the State Council Information Office will invite the Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, to introduce the financial statistics for the first half of 2025 and answer questions from reporters.
On the 15th, Tuesday, China will release the second quarter GDP data, retail sales of consumer goods in June, industrial added value above the scale in June, the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, national real estate development investment from January to June, and urban fixed asset investment from January to June. On the morning of the 15th at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2025.
In addition, financial data for June in China, such as M2, social financing, and new RMB loans, will also be released irregularly next week.
The Federal Reserve has released the Beige Book on economic conditions.
On the 17th, Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. The high uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs is creating a chain reaction in the U.S. economy. The previous report indicated that future costs and prices are expected to rise at a faster rate, and the economic outlook remains "slightly pessimistic and uncertain."
President Trump has imposed tariffs on many U.S. imported goods and threatened to impose higher tariffs on major trading partners of the U.S. In the previous Beige Book, the term "tariffs" appeared 122 times, compared to 107 times in the prior issue; the term "uncertainty" and its variants appeared 80 times.
Most regions described employment as "flat" and generally mentioned that hiring is being delayed due to uncertainty. All regions pointed out a weakening demand for labor. Wages continue to grow at a "moderate" pace.
Trump announced he would make an important statement on the Russia issue on Monday.
According to CCTV News, local time on July 10, U.S. President Trump revealed that he would make a "significant statement" on the Russia issue next Monday (local time July 14).
During a phone interview with American media on that day, Trump stated that the current Russian military airstrikes on Ukraine are escalating, expressing his "disappointment" with Russian President Putin, and described Putin as "verbally courteous but lacking substance."
On the evening of the 7th local time, during a White House dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump stated that the United States would supply more weapons to Ukraine to aid in its self-defense. "We will have to provide more weapons, primarily defensive weapons." Trump also said, "Honestly, I am disappointed that President Putin did not stop."
Key Performance Calendar for the New Week
Related reading:[With Prize] Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix kick off Q2 earnings season! Weekly Earnings Newsletter (7.14-7.18)
July 14, Monday
Keywords: Trade Balance, M2, Social Financing, RMB Loans, Cryptos Week
On Monday, regarding economic data, China's trade balance for June will be officially released at 10 AM, and at the same time, a press conference will be held by the State Council Information Office to introduce the import and export situation for the first half of 2025. Financial data such as China's M2, social financing, and RMB loans for June may also be released on the same day (the timing of financial data is uncertain, investors should refer to the actual time). At 3 PM, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the financial statistics for the first half of 2025.
In terms of financial events, the week for Cryptos officially begins, and this week will review the Digital Asset Market Transparency Act (Clarity Act), the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the GENIUS Act regarding national innovation for stablecoins in the United States.
July 15, Tuesday.
Keywords: China's Q2 GDP, social retail, industrial production, US June CPI, JPMorgan.
On Tuesday, regarding economic data, at 9:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices for 70 large and medium-sized cities; China's year-on-year GDP for Q2, total retail sales of consumer goods for June, and the year-on-year industrial value added above the designated size for June will be significantly released at 10 AM. At the same time, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic operation for the first half of 2025. In the evening at 8:30, the US June CPI and core CPI will be released significantly.
In terms of financial events, today there are 100 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 69 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing; at 21:15, Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman will deliver a welcome speech at a Fed-hosted meeting.
In terms of earnings, the Q2 earnings report season officially kicks off. $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ 、 $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ The earnings of bank stocks will be released first in Pre-Market Trading.
July 16, Wednesday
Keywords: US June PPI, Barr, Collins, ASML Holding, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, at 20:30, US June PPI and core PPI will be released.
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve officials will make speeches in quick succession. At 00:45, Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak at a Fed-hosted conference; at 02:45, 2025 FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins will speak; at 07:45, 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak about the US economy; at 21:15, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Harmack will speak.
In terms of performance, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ The earnings will be announced in the afternoon, Beijing time. $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$ 、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ Earnings will be announced during Pre-Market Trading.
July 17, Thursday.
Keywords: Retail Sales Month Rate, Unemployment Insurance, Beige Book, Netflix, Taiwan Semiconductor.
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the U.S. retail sales month-on-month for June and the initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 will be released at 20:30.
Regarding financial events, at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the Economic Conditions Beige Book; at 5:30 AM, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
In terms of performance, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ The earnings will be announced at 13:30 Beijing time. $PepsiCo (PEP.US)$ 、 $Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US)$ Earnings will be announced during Pre-Market Trading. $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ Earnings will be announced during Post-Market Trading.
July 18, Friday.
Keywords: one-year inflation rate expectations, July Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index, Charles Schwab.
On Friday, regarding economic data, at 22:00, the initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectations for the U.S. in July and the initial value of the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for July will be released.
In terms of performance, $American Express (AXP.US)$ 、 $Charles Schwab (SCHW.US)$ 、 $3M (MMM.US)$ Earnings will be announced during Pre-Market Trading.
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