来源：投资报
东方港湾董事长但斌日前在出席一场高峰论坛时，以“扎根中国，走向世界”为题，对下半年机会进行了最新分享。
演讲中，他围绕“投资的独立精神”、“影响资本市场的真正主因”、投资“改变世界与不被世界改变的公司”等角度，阐述了东方港湾的投资理念与全球视野。
但斌一直秉持“人类社会的财富增长主要还是由技术进步来推动”的理念，多次在社交媒体上表达对“改变世界的公司”的看好。
在这次的演讲中，他也提到很多人错过了一个又一个时代，电子硬件时代、互联网时代、移动互联网时代，而当下，
人工智能时代刚刚开始——
他在社交媒体上也最新发文称，纳指的再创历史新高，标志着新的循环开始，人工智能时代将继续开启资本市场的伟大征程。
纳指的上涨也验证了东方港湾对科技股长期投资价值的判断，也让东方港湾重新焕发勃勃生机。
The data shows that Dongfang Harbor achieved the top performance among large private equity funds in 2023 and 2024. This year, there was a period of testing, but with the V-shaped recovery of the Nasdaq and other indices, the performance has once again strengthened.
Dan Bin personally predicts that 2025 will likely resemble 1998, which was during the Internet era. That year, the market was significantly affected by the Asian financial crisis, with intra-day declines of up to 30%, but it ended the year with gains;
Dan Bin estimates that the Nasdaq is likely to end up rising by around 20% in 2025.
However, there are some points worth considering. Among the seven giants,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$and$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$have performed exceptionally well. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ followed by, but $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ 、$Amazon (AMZN.US)$、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ 、$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Due to various reasons, the performance of these seven giants is notably divergent.
It remains to be seen who will emerge as the winner and who will be left behind in the era of artificial intelligence;
Buti is extremely bullish on the artificial intelligence era. In addition to being fully invested in these giants, he has also, under the condition that the overall risk is manageable, invested in $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ and $MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU.US)$ each at 10%, and 2% in a two-times leveraged position. $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)$ 。
Dan Bin believes that holding these U.S. stocks is not much of an issue, but the friction costs for triple-leveraged ETFs and double-leveraged individual stocks are relatively high.
His current experience is that the best strategy for using such tools is during a sustained upward trend.
There are many strategies and investment tools available for U.S. stock trading, and using them prudently can be highly beneficial.
Dan Bin emphasizes that sometimes 'choosing the right direction is more important than hard work.'
He uses the example of Japan's 35-year economic stagnation to point out that 'investments should be made in directions with significant growth potential.'
Holding great companies with a long-term industry perspective of 10, 20, or 30 years can achieve a hundredfold return.
The Investment Report has compiled and selected the key points shared by Dan Bin as follows:
Whether the 'bull' market comes or not, it is crucial to maintain independent thinking.
In our profession, independent thinking and an independent spirit are very important.
Throughout my career, and in the 21 years since the establishment of Oriental Harbor, there have been several critical junctures,
at which many people did not understand, and even ridiculed me.
For example, in April, when the U.S. stock market and NVIDIA plummeted, many people online insulted me.
Of course, today, I think those who insulted me are, at least for now, silent, right?
Of course, if NVIDIA falls again, these people might come back.
However, in my career, such moments have been quite frequent.
In 2012, during the liquor crisis, the leading liquor stock fell from 250 to 118.
During this period, I frequently commented on the advantages of the leading liquor stock on Weibo. One person said that I was 'whistling past the graveyard.'
I replied to him, saying, 'When there's a windfall, don't say you weren't warned.'
I considered it a 'windfall,' but some people thought I was 'whistling past the graveyard'—bolstering my own courage.
Looking back, if you had bought the leading liquor stock at any point during that time and held it until today,
even with the current impact on the liquor industry, you would still have more than a 10-fold return.
Another example is in 2020, during the pandemic, many Chinese experts and scholars opposed reopening the stock market after the Spring Festival, fearing a market crash.
I firmly believe that the market should open, and on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, there was a widespread decline with over a thousand stocks hitting the lower limit.
At that time, we had just established two products, and in the situation of widespread declines, I instructed our traders to buy into all of them.
We mainly bought leading liquor stocks and top electronic enterprises, including leading Internet companies in Hong Kong and online education companies, deploying all of our capital.
Investing requires independent thinking.
Whenever the panic index exceeds 50, it is always the best historical opportunity.
This happened recently, in April this year,
At that time, the U.S. stock market plummeted, and many people online were insulting and criticizing me.
On April 4th, I wrote a record, noting that the S&P 500 had fallen by 10.5% over two consecutive days.
According to the Statistics, it ranks fifth in history.
If we observe that the one-year, three-year, and five-year periods following the previous nine occurrences all saw significant gains, should you buy at this position, or should you hold on?
I said, 'The ROI is quite astonishing, with no exceptions. I wonder if it will be the same this time.'
I made a judgment, saying, 'The current sharp decline in U.S. stocks is very likely to reach a historic bottom! Holding on is the key to victory!'
Investment sometimes requires not only wisdom but also strong willpower and the courage to overcome difficulties!
This was my judgment at the time.
Let's look at the fear index.
This time is no different; whenever the fear index exceeds 50, it has always been the best historical opportunity.
However, the issue is that when such an opportunity presents itself, people are often gripped by fear.
How many people have the courage to buy at the bottom?
In hindsight, it all seems so easy,
NVIDIA fell to a low of 87, and yesterday it hit a new high of 153. I see it rising again in pre-market trading.
If you had bought a large amount at the low point, you would have already made a significant profit.
But at that time, our judgment and other aspects tend to be severely impaired.
We must go all out to embrace a new era.
Additionally, I will provide a brief outlook on the future of Capital Markets from a global perspective.
Through my research on the U.S. and global capital markets, I have come to a realization:
Interest rate hikes and cuts, as well as the recessions that people worry about, are, in my view, secondary factors.
The true primary factor is this: since the establishment of the Nasdaq in 1971, what has been the most important driver of global wealth growth?
It is technological progress.
If we now believe that the era of artificial intelligence is upon us,
and if we consider that the previous three eras each lasted for more than a decade, then it is highly likely that the era of artificial intelligence will also last for more than a decade, and it cannot end in just two years.
Furthermore, if we consider that the era of artificial intelligence represents a more disruptive technological advancement than the previous three eras,
theoretically, it should last even longer and create even more wealth, right?
For us, this is essentially a matter of choice.
Oriental Harbor was established in 2004. If we had clearly recognized that the Internet era was upon us,
how should we have approached our investments?
Should we have converted all our funds into Hong Kong dollars to buy shares in the largest Chinese Internet company at that time?
If you had bought those shares in 2004 and held them until today, your returns would have been much greater than if you had held shares in leading liquor companies.
Twenty years later, a new era has arrived—the era of artificial intelligence.
How should we proceed?
Should we fully commit to embracing this new era?
In fact, over the past two years, Dongfang Harbor has been fully committed to embracing the era of artificial intelligence. Of course, we cannot concentrate our investments in just one or two stocks as we did before.
If we had continued with the same approach, Dongfang Harbor might have earned hundreds of billions over the past two years.
It is because of this focus that we have won the title of the top private equity fund with assets over 10 billion RMB for two consecutive years, breaking the industry's curse.
Being at the dawn of the AI explosion, we are investing in a direction of great potential and impact.
There is also a saying, 'Choice is more important than effort,' and investment should be directed towards areas with great potential and impact.
I have also mentioned before that we should invest in 'companies that change the world' and 'companies that are not changed by the world.'
In the past, when we were rooted in China, we mainly chose directions that were not affected by global changes.
Today, as Dongfang Harbor moves from China to the global stage, our current direction is to invest in companies that change the world.
From a performance perspective, the strategic decisions made over the past two years have been correct so far.
Thirdly, my personal experience suggests that investing in 'light-asset, high-profit' business models is the way to go.
Looking at the past 10 years and even the past 70 years, the core themes and asset performance globally have followed discernible patterns.
In the most recent decade, there is no doubt that the focus has been on artificial intelligence (AI).
Who are the biggest beneficiaries of AI?
There is no doubt that companies like NVIDIA and Meta Platforms are among the key beneficiaries.
From a long-term perspective, we are only at the beginning of the AI boom, and everything is just getting started.
Currently, the hold positions are concentrated in AI, and the potential for achieving a hundredfold growth lies in this area.
For instance, what was the noise in April?
It was the trade war.
At that time, people overlooked the main driver of artificial intelligence.
I have said before, how do you achieve a 100-fold return?
You must adopt an industry perspective and look at it with a 10, 20, or 30-year horizon.
We see that the Internet cycle is about 30 years, and it has been 30 years now. Smart Phones have also been around for 20 years,
Artificial intelligence is just beginning. If you choose some companies with a 10, 20, or 30-year perspective,
and hold them for the long term, there is a real possibility of achieving a 100-fold return or even more.
Additionally, for Orient Harbor, our current focus remains primarily on the AI foundation,
of course, in the vertical application layer, such as$Palantir (PLTR.US)$, which Orient Harbor has also held before. This direction still offers both offensive and defensive possibilities.
Overall, Orient Harbor has transformed from a company that was once deeply rooted in China to one that now operates globally.
When we relocated our Hong Kong office, I told our colleagues that we have a dream. If we continue to move forward as we have for the past 21 years,
if we can live to the age of Munger or Buffett and work for another four decades, it is possible to create a miracle.
However, this miracle will only be possible if we remain grounded in China while looking globally, growing alongside the world's greatest companies. This way, the possibility is greater.
编辑/rice
