Original title:Fosun Pharmaceuticals(600196) Alvatrippa tablets approved, next in license-in mode Source:Everbright Securities
The industry received an “Imported Drug Registration Certificate” from the State Drug Administration for avatripopam maleate tablets, and approved that the new drug is suitable for adult patients with chronic liver disease-related thrombocytopenia undergoing diagnostic procedures or surgery at selected dates. According to IQVIA data, global sales of the drug in 2019 were approximately $3.43 million. As of March 2020, the company's total R&D investment for this new drug at this stage is approximately RMB 39.64 million (unaudited; including license transfer fees).
Comment:
License-in went one step further and entered the first tier of domestic TPO. AkarX's avatripopal tablets are thrombocytopoietin (TPO) receptor agonists. It was approved for marketing by the FDA in May 2018. Fosun Pharmaceutical Industry obtained exclusive sales agency rights for the drug in mainland China and Hong Kong in March 2018, and agreed to pay up to 22 million US dollars in license fees and milestone fees. The funding source is self-funded. Similar target drugs include Amgen's romistin injection, which was approved by the FDA in 2008, with global sales of USD 0.795 billion (+11%); Novartis's etripopa ethanolamine tablets and suspensions, approved by the FDA in 2008, launched in China in 2017, global sales of USD 1.416 billion (+21%) in 2019, PDB sample hospital sales of about 4.76 million yuan; and recombinant human thrombocytopetin injections from Sansheng Pharmaceuticals, with sales of about 1.67 million yuan in 2018 billion yuan (+71%)
The market is broad and the pattern is excellent, and “blockbusters” can be expected in the future. In addition to thrombocytopenia associated with chronic liver disease, potential indications for TPO agonists include chronic immune thrombocytopenia and thrombocytopenia due to tumor chemotherapy. We estimate that 1.89 million people apply this drug, and peak sales are expected to reach about 2.3 billion yuan, which is expected to become the company's next “blockbuster” product.
Profit forecasting, investment ratings and valuations:
The company covers the entire medical and health industry chain, has potential for collaboration between business segments, and lays out multiple innovative platforms. With the gradual implementation of various innovative platforms, it is expected that innovation-driven transformation will gradually be realized. Maintain the 2020-2022 EPS forecast of 1.42/1.67/2.02 yuan, and the current price of A shares is 25/21/18 times PE in 2020-2022, maintaining a “buy” rating; the current price of H shares is 17/15/12 times PE in 2020-2022, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Fosun Pharmaceuticals (600196) has approved avatripopa tablets, and the license-in model will go one step further